HI 2014 Congressional Elections

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Mercado Kim is the most high profile, I think. She is the Senate President after all.

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Mercado Kim is the most high profile, I think. She is the Senate President after all.

She's anti-SSM though; I'm curious to see how big a strike against her that will be.

Honestly, if that wasn't an issue, I'd probably be supporting her (though I'd likely be doing less research on the other candidates).

Once some money starts flowing, that will change, I'm 64% sure.

So is the Hanabusa campaign running on things other than "We need more women in the Senate!" and "Inouye's seat?"  I'm inclined to support the incumbent in primary challenges if there's no good reason to get rid of them.

Nope, even as a Hanabusa supporter, I can't say there is much of a difference.

[Vega]

Not a fan of DINO Mercado Kim. Hopefully Takai can catch up to her.

Same. Anti-gay, anti-public education, pro-Monsanto.

If it looks like a Republican, talks like a Republican, and acts like a Republican, then it's probably a Republican pretending to be a Democrat.

If Djou supports gay marriage he has my endorsement, bar a Green run.

Djou does support gay marriage.

Actually, he does not. He only was pro-DADT, but he was also pro-DOMA.

Looking at his other isssues, I'll probably refuse to endorse him too. It's a shame that one of the most liberal states might have to decide between two Republicans.

Looking at Donna Mercado Kim's website , she seems to be a solid progressive on most issues (or at least on the ones she mentions). Also, the website looks very low-tech, possibly hinting at an underfunded campaign. It may still be possible for a more liberal candidate to sneak through to the nomination.

She's anti-gay marriage, appointed a Monsanto shill as the head of the Water Commission, and supports funneling public education funds towards private subsidies.

Actions speak louder than words. She doesn't even deserve to be called a DINO.

She sure makes Hanabusa seem good in comparison, LOL.

No kidding. At least Hanabusa is Generic D.

With all this discussion on Mercado Kim, is there a First Congressional District Hawaii thread this year? I'll create one or someone else can if there isn't.

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^ Meh, this is basically the HI Congressional thread. The primaries will be over in a few weeks anyway, so both races should cool down after that.

Djou is running in the first congressional district. That could be an interesting race.

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It seems Hanabusa's campaign is entirely based on "Daniel Inouye wanted me to be senator, so you should vote for me"

You wouldn't be wrong.

It kinda is though.

She doesn't have all that policy differences from Schatz; for a Democratic primary, that's not unexpected, but really. This is coming from a Hanabusa supporter.

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Abercrombie said he wanted to 'build seniority' among Hawaii's delegation, which is why he appointed Schatz.

Not sure if that's a lie and he just wanted to put his guy in there, but he does have a point. In the past 4 years or so, there has been a magical chair game with the delegation.

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The Honolulu Star-Advertiser endorses Schatz.

Schatz is really racking up the endorsements it seems.

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From the Civil Beat Senate poll that Tender posted, they also had a HI-01 poll.

Takai leads Kim 30-23, up from trailing her 30-24 in May.

Ah, excellent. I know it's Hawaii Polling, but it is a good sign. I believe Takai is to the left of Kim and Hanabusa.

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I wish Stanley Chang was doing better. I don't see him winning this election, but he is very young and could run again. Really solid guy.

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Hurricane Iselle is on path to strike Hawaii on Thursday going into Friday, albeit as a weakened tropical storm.  That could be a real wildcard that could cause lower turnout in hardest-hit areas or even some blackouts, making Saturday's election more difficult to administer.

Nah, from what I heard it won't effect it. Hawaii News Now had an article about how the Hurricane will miss most of Hawaii's main islands, but they took it down.

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http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/26186931/hawaii-poll-hanabusa-up-over-schatz-in-senate-showdown

Latest poll from Hawaii News Now/Star Advertiser Hawaii has Hanabusa up 50-42, but this article notes how Schatz has been ahead previously.

Although the Star Advertiser has been more accurate in polling than Civil Beat, I don't buy a almost 10 point reversal since last week or so.

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http://westhawaiitoday.com/news/state-wire/coming-storm-likely-won-t-impact-hawaii-election

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I feel like people are making this a bigger deal than it should be. But I guess you have to be prepared.

It won't effect the election all that much, and it won't effect it enough to call it off.

All the links and info you've been posting about it makes me think you really want the election to be called off though.

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Isnt HI mostly mail in? or is that just general elections.

Not mostly, no. But they do have a very robust Early/Absentee voting system for both the General and the primaries. A fair number of people do use it. I never did when I lived in Hawaii.

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Isnt HI mostly mail in? or is that just general elections.

Not mostly, no. But they do have a very robust Early/Absentee voting system for both the General and the primaries. A fair number of people do use it. I never did when I lived in Hawaii.

Almost 50% of the votes in the 2012 primaries were absentee/early.  As of July 29, 163,504 mail-in absentees were mailed out statewide. 

In-person early voting is open until tomorrow.

50% isn't most. It is quite a few, as I said, though. Understandable why people would want to in Hawaii.

Hawaii having it means that alot of people who might not vote do. Helps with the low voter turnout of the past years.

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Oh crap, Hawaii has open primaries? I hope Saturday isn't a big victory for conservative "Democrats".

Nah. They've had this system for a while. Possible Republicans voting hasn't effected elections in the past.

[Vega]

Oh crap, Hawaii has open primaries? I hope Saturday isn't a big victory for conservative "Democrats".

Nah. They've had this system for a while. Possible Republicans voting hasn't effected elections in the past.

If Hanabusa or Kim win, then we know they've been voting.

Tradition is always susceptible to change.

[Vega]

Curious…

Is Hanabusa's relatively high chance (at least for a challenger to an incumbent) of winning the seat more related to legacy, ethnicity, or ties to Abercrombie?

I know very little about Hawaiian politics, but I do know that Hawaii has a very large native Hawaiian and Asian population. Is Hanabusa's candidacy buoyed by these demographics? I also wonder if Schatz's ties with Abercrombie could haunt him on Election Day.

Ethnicity and Legacy don't hurt her, but I'm not sure if they alone would carry her to victory. Given how unpopular Abercrombie is, maybe that sways a few voters to her side.

Interestingly, Abercrombie is paying more for appointing Schatz than Schatz is for being appointed by Abercrombie.

[Vega]

Iselle didn't do much damage to the Big Island.  The center made landfall as a Tropical Storm a good distance south of Hilo, near Hawaii Volcanoes National Park in a relatively unpopulated area.  It brought a lot of rain to the windward side of the Big Island - over a foot in some places - and, as would be expected, brought down some trees.  About 22,000 customers lost power on the Big Island.  Yet some areas on the leeward side of the island, especially where the major resorts are, didn't see a drop of rain or much in the way of winds.  Mauna Loa protected that side of the island and ripped Iselle to shreds.

The primary election will go on as scheduled tomorrow, with possible precinct consolidations if the polling place doubles as an active hurricane shelter.  Only 17 polling places statewide could be affected - and some are on Oahu and Kauai, which will be least affected by the storm.  I think the most you might see is a precinct consolidation or two on the Big Island.

Thank god. I have some family on the Big Island who live in Hilo, they said it wasn't anything bad too. Just alot of rain.

Dodged a bullet.

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I just heard David Louie (Hawaii's Attorney General) speak on KITV, you'll have to take me on my word, but he said that only two polling places on the big island will be affected as they will be closed. The effected voters will be voting via Absentee Ballots.

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I just heard David Louie (Hawaii's Attorney General) speak on KITV, you'll have to take me on my word, but he said that only two polling places on the big island will be affected as they will be closed. The effected voters will be voting via Absentee Ballots.

Hawaii News Now reports: "Roads leading to Hawaii Paradise Community Center (04-01) and Keoneopoko Elementary School (04-02) polling places are closed. “According to Hawaii County Civil Defense, the damage to roadways have left some communities in Puna isolated,” Nago says."

Voters cast 1,120 and 1,029 election day ballots in those precincts, respectively, in the 2012 Democratic Primary.  Hirono beat Case with 61-64% of the vote, 4-7 points better than she did statewide and about on par with her performance in Hawaii County.

Well, if the race is close, than those ballots will really be needed.

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What time do the polls close tonight?

6:00 PM. Midnight here.

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At least Donna Kim lost, and now she's saying she'll step down as Senate President. So that's good.

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Congratulations Senator Schatz.

I'll only celebrate after those two goddamn precincts cast their votes.

Last election 2,000 of the 8,000 eligible voters actually voted in those two precincts, because of the storm that number will certainly be down.

That would mean that Hanabusa would have to win 1,500 votes, assuming that many people even vote, and she still would narrowly lose.

At this point, Schatz will win.

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It seems like there is this weird talking point from every Hawaii Republican I've seen when it comes to the Congressional District 1 race.

They have been saying essentially "Well, because the House of Representatives is going to be Republican controlled, elect a Republican here in Hawaii so he can be part of the Majority".