2020 South Korean legislative election (April 15th)

[urutzizu]

Realmeter poll:
Moon-Jae-in Approval rating:
46.8% Approval
49.4% Disapproval

Moons approval rating has staying mostly stable since the end of his Honeymoon after the end of 2018.

Party support:
DP: 40.3% (+0.1)
LKP: 31.1% (+0.9)
JP: 4.8
NCP: 3.8
Bareun: 2.2
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/13/c_138780302.htm

A good introductory read on the current state of ROK politics here: https://thediplomat.com/2019/12/protesters-storm-national-assembly-capping-off-a-divisive-year-for-korean-politics/

The Coronavirus is likely to hit the SK economy hard in the next months, which is not good for Moon.
The National Assembly after much delay end of last year passed a watered-down Electoral reform act against the resistance of LKP that would ensure that the 30 of the 47 Proportional Seats are distributed under a MMP type system. The LKP wants to use decoy lists (see Italy 2001) to get around this and ensure that the Parallel Voting system is de facto maintained. If this happens the other Parties would likely be forced to do the same, and the entire change would end up useless.

[urutzizu]

The election Commission has approved the LKPs decoy list, under the name Future Liberty Korea Party.

The small Parties (except JP) are, to put it mildly, well sorta screwed, as the election reform was a concession by DP intended to secure their survival in exchange for Backing the Moon administration in the National Assembly. Less-than voluntary Mergers were on the cards already, now certain.

New Conservative Party and Onward for Future 4.0 plan to merge with LKP to become the "Party for Future Integration".

Ahn Cheol-soo, is preparing to launch jet another new party for "pragmatic and middle-of-the-road politics". He would have had a so much better Career by sticking to tech. But it seems he really wants to learn the hard way.

The BP will try to merge with the Party for Democracy and Peace (PDP) and the Daeanshin Party. What was the point of Splitting in the first place then?

[urutzizu]

You know, I’m more interested in the prospects of the Justice Party and the left in Korea. Considering the justice party was polling 9-10% just a few months ago, falling behind their previous national vote totals is surprising.

A number of factors, but first and foremost the fact that they have stained by major ethics scandals. It first started when Noh Hoe-chan (노회찬) one of its rather better politicians, killed himself over a 2018 Opinion rigging scandal and has gone down since, and they destroyed much of what remained of their reputations after the Cho Kuk scandals. Its not as if most South Korean politicians are exactly known for their ... shall we say... ethical behaviour, but their for the party that is supposed to be the non-corrupt anti-establishment party, they failed completely.

The North Korea/Communism issue had little impact, although some of its politicians have trouble with keeping their mouths closed on Issues where it is (still) wise to tread carefully in Korean society, such as proclaiming themselves "socialist".

[urutzizu]

As you may know the Coronavirus has been spreading like Wildfire in Korea, completely tanking the already weak economy, that is very dependent on china, and suspending normal public life for at least a while, and it is having a big political impact. Back when the Virus was going through China, President Moon predicted that the outbreak would “disappear before long,” while the prime minister assured people that it was OK not to wear surgical masks. LKP politicans are blaming Government incompetence and "leftist sinophilia" (a favorite schtick of the SK right, despite conservative adminstrations making SK dependent on Chinese business), by not moving to close the country’s borders to China and not supplying enough surgical masks for citizens. The former point exceptionally illogical, because there are like literally 4 chinese citizens in SK with the Virus out of a total of 2000 and all of them got it from South Koreans, none of them brought the Virus into the country, Koreans did that entirely by themselves. But thats populism, I guess. Not like Liberals held back from politicising similar stuff either, like Sewol or when in 2015, when South Korea was hit by an outbreak of MERS, Moon called the crisis “a catastrophe spawned by an incompetent government” led by ​Ms. Park, so what comes around.... More than one million South Koreans signed an online petition calling for Moons impeachment. But I mean, one million Koreans would be willing to sign a petition if Moon wore the wrong color suit, so..
(Also, like using the national petition system created by the Moon government to remove Moon from office, is pretty funny)

The Administration has kinda been caught between a rock and a hard place here, being accused simultaneously of being too weak and to authoritarian.
When the government tried to ban weekend anti-government rallies over health concerns, the participants accused it of political suppression and when he announced a “maximum containment” of Daegu and nearby towns this week, conservatives took that as a decision to punish korean towns while being spineless toward China. They had to backtrack quickly, forcing the government to deny any lockdown plan and Hong Ihk-pyo, the spokesman who announced the maximum containment, resigned. Korean people's anger reached its highest just now, when Chinese cities started quarantining South Koreans, while Korea refused to do so for Chinese.
Liberals have mainly been trying to shift blame to the Shincheonji Christian cult, that violated the quarentine and was almost single handedly responsibile for massively inflating the outbreak. The Cult is very close to the Conservatives (conservatives love these weird christian cults, which have a ton of followers in SK). Evangelical Christians have always been very conservative in SK, while Catholic/Buddhist anti-evangelical resentment feeds into them leaning liberal.

If the outbreak doesn’t let up soon, it could spell disaster Moon.

[urutzizu]

National and International perceptions can differ. Once the large Outbreak in South Korea had happened, South Korean Government was internationally praised for its containment effort (something that in Korea was mainly credited the Civil Service and Medical staff). On the other hand Moon was very strongly criticised in in Korea for refusing to stop travel between China and South Korea unlike other Asian Countries (e.g. Singapore) did, and so purportedly allowing the outbreak to escalate to the levels we saw in the first place. Whether that is a fair assessment is questionable (see my last post), but in South Korea there is a tendency to blame the Government when bad things happen under their watch, even if it is not direct result of their policymaking (see Sewol, MERS, Sampoong Department Store, Deagu Metro fire). While in the West there is today a rally-around-the-flag effect, even where the response was arguably extremely bungled (US, Italy, France, Germany, UK). Different political cultures, different standards for politcians.

[urutzizu]

For what its worth the Impact seems to have been rather small.

Realmeter (Mar 19):
President Approval
approval 47.9 (up 0.7 week-on-week but down overall)
disapproval  48.9 (down 0.2)

Democratic Party: 40.9% (-0.6)
United Future Party: 35.1% (+?)
People's Party: 3.9 %
Justice Party: 3.2%

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/19/c_138894985.htm

[urutzizu]

Developments in Places such as the US, Europe and South East Asia seem to have made People in Korea realize how good their response was, relatively speaking, and consequentially Moons approval is rising fast.

Realmeter (Mar 26):
President Approval
approval  52.5 (+3.2)
disapproval  44.1 (-3.8 )

Highest Approval since November 2018

Democratic Party:  45% (+2.9)
United Future Party: 29.8% (-3.8 )
Justice Party: 4.7% (+1.0)
People Party: 3.6% (-0.4)

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200326001852315

[urutzizu]

This isn't wholly accurate. Shincheonji is generally regarded as a heretical cult by *other Christian denominations* (my church's pastor has warned of them on various occasions). Moreover, while there is a strong Christian Right in South Korea fed by anti-communism and increasingly fears of a sexual revolution, Protestants don't vote anymore right-wing than their Catholic and Buddhist counterparts. While Syngman Rhee was a Methodist, none of the subsequent military dictator Presidents (Park Chung Hee, Chun Doo Hwan, and Roh Tae Woo) were Protestants. If you look at religious statistics, Protestantism is most prevalent in the Seoul region and the Jeolla province which is precisely where liberals are the strongest. Conversely, Buddhists are much stronger in the Gyeongsang provinces which has been a conservative stronghold for a generation.

It depends. I was not actually referring to Protestants as a whole, but specifically to "Evangelicals". Roh Tae Woo was a Protestant, or at least converted at some later point in life, as far as I understand? And the same goes for all of the conservative sixth republic Presidents, save Parks daughter:  Kim Young-sam, and Lee Myung Bak were Prostentant, as well as Interim President Hwang Kyo-ahn. Both of the latter have (credibly) been accused of anti-Buddhist sentiment.  

You are right about the regional distribution, but I think correlation and causation may be misleading here. While they are a larger section of the population, the vast majority of Cheolla is still non-protestant, and the majority of protestants do not live there, but rather in Seoul/gyeonggi-do, which, as a whole is during a normal election cycle basically 50/50.

If we look at the exit poll from 2017 we see:
Protestant:39%/22%/26%  Moon/Hong/Ahn
Catholic: 47%/20%/22%
Buddhist: 34%/36%/19%

Which does appear to confirm which you said (Although Moon did underperform among protestants compared to the Country as a whole). However that was also an election where LKP support evaporated in Seoul, while it held on in Gyeongsang. And it was also an election where Hong was Buddhist, while Moon was Christian (Catholic). If we look at other elections, 2007 for instance, where Lee Myung Bak overperformed in Seoul (for obvious reasons), and where the Conservative Candidate was a devout and, arguably, openly sectarian Protestant , he is reported of having won as much as 80% of the Christian vote, and it is safe to say an even higher share among protestants.

So overall, Yes, I agree it is wrong to presume that Protestants are necessarily more right-leaning. It depends quite considerably, on the Candidates appeal in Seoul/Gyeonggi-do, and whether the Candidate is a devout protestant him/herself. Evangelicals, specifically, do seem to be right-leaning, and that is the reason why the Anti-Buddhist sentiment is, with a few exceptions, (and most of the hardline anti Homosexuality stuff) only really found on the right.

[urutzizu]

Does reaching a 3/5th majority (180 seats) in S Korea have any significance for governing?

Yes. Most new pieces of Legislation require a 3/5 supermajority (180 Seats) under the National Assembly Act. This rule was introduced in 2012 if I recall correctly, because the conservatives feared losing their majority (which surprisingly did not transpire that year), and to stop the practice of contentious legislation causing physical violence in the Chamber, as was commonplace before (which it only partially succeeded in doing). Works similar the filibuster in the US senate essentially.

It is one of the main reasons for the legislative gridlock since 2012, and its why the Conservatives were so desperately trying for 180 Seats in 2016. The Democratic Party and its satallite Civil Together Party getting 180 Seats means they can repeal the Supermajority provisions and rule without needing the Justice Party or Ahn for anything really. It also probably means more fistfights.