Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[LabourJersey]

Will the other debates in October still happen then?

Doubtful. Biden sent CPD a letter that their debates are too close to the election in an era of such prolific early and mail in voting and also that they haven't been able to control candidates in the past and refuse to cut the mics.

Yup, but I'm somewhat concerned this becomes the new norm. The presidential election cycle is already way too long. Early voting for sure is an argument, but im my opinion debates shouldn't occur before the first half of September.

The extended length of campaigns contributes to voter fatigue and disengagement. With campaigns stretching over a year or more, voters can become overwhelmed by the constant barrage of political messaging and may lose interest in the election process altogether. Additionally, the prolonged campaign season allows for an excessive amount of fundraising and spending on advertising. candidates and incumbents are forced to spend significant amounts of time and money on campaigning, which can - in latter's case - detract from their ability to govern effectively. Shortening the campaign period would also help to reduce the influence of money in politics.

The prolonged campaign season only benefits political journalists and political staffers.

There's no benefit from these campaigns for average voters. In the primaries specifically they also serves to help candidates who either have a lot of funds or high name recognition, and hurts smaller "underdog" candidates.

[Open Source Intelligence]

So for determining RFK Jr.'s polling numbers for inclusion in this debate, what controls?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/14/upshot/support-third-party-candidates.html

The NYT and Ipsos polled a subtle difference in how they asked questions about RFK Jr and found that his support almost doubles from 7% to 13% when respondents were asked the H2H question first.  Furthermore, this pattern exists among other national pollsters, with RFK Jr. averaging 7% with pollsters who ask the full field question first and averaging 12% with pollsters who ask the shorter H2H first.  This highlights how much of his candidacy stems from voters utterly sick of the 2 major party nominees as opposed to positive support for him specifically.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Will the other debates in October still happen then?

Doubtful. Biden sent CPD a letter that their debates are too close to the election in an era of such prolific early and mail in voting and also that they haven't been able to control candidates in the past and refuse to cut the mics.

Yup, but I'm somewhat concerned this becomes the new norm. The presidential election cycle is already way too long. Early voting for sure is an argument, but im my opinion debates shouldn't occur before the first half of September.

The extended length of campaigns contributes to voter fatigue and disengagement. With campaigns stretching over a year or more, voters can become overwhelmed by the constant barrage of political messaging and may lose interest in the election process altogether. Additionally, the prolonged campaign season allows for an excessive amount of fundraising and spending on advertising. candidates and incumbents are forced to spend significant amounts of time and money on campaigning, which can - in latter's case - detract from their ability to govern effectively. Shortening the campaign period would also help to reduce the influence of money in politics.

To be fair, in the future both parties' nominations, during an open year especially, will likely not conclude as early as they did this year.

[Del Tachi]

The calculus is different for Biden vs Trump.  Trump's operating assumption is that Biden is unfit for the office, so debating should expose that to voters. 

How is that different from Biden’s operating assumption?

Well...you can look at how Biden's campaign is actually running their communications/media strategy.  Biden has done ~200 fewer interviews than either Obama or Trump had done at this point in their presidencies, and a bunch of them are softball interviews like Howard Stern or Jay Shetty's mindfulness podcast.  Biden is the first president since Eisenhower to not give a lengthy, sitdown interview to the news side of the New York Times or Washington Post in his first term. 

This is bad.  It looks like the White House strategy is to minimize Biden's exposure to improvised public appearances where he has to take sustained questioning from the media.  Biden can't get away with avoiding a debate entirely, but having it early will make it less impactful.  Biden's argument that we need an early debate for early voters is bulls[inks]t.  By the time of the first debate in 2020 (October 7th), only 5.6 million votes had been cast out of the 158 million that would be eventually tallied.

[Open Source Intelligence]

The calculus is different for Biden vs Trump.  Trump's operating assumption is that Biden is unfit for the office, so debating should expose that to voters.  

How is that different from Biden’s operating assumption?

Well...you can look at how Biden's campaign is actually running their communications/media strategy.  Biden has done ~200 fewer interviews than either Obama or Trump had done at this point in their presidencies, and a bunch of them are softball interviews like Howard Stern or Jay Shetty's mindfulness podcast.  Biden is the first president since Eisenhower to not give a lengthy, sitdown interview to the news side of the New York Times or Washington Post in his first term.  

This is bad.  It looks like the White House strategy is to minimize Biden's exposure to improvised public appearances where he has to take sustained questioning from the media.  Biden can't get away with avoiding a debate entirely, but having it early will make it less impactful.  Biden's argument that we need an early debate for early voters is bulls[inks]t.  By the time of the first debate in 2020 (October 7th), only 5.6 million votes had been cast out of the 158 million that would be eventually tallied.

I remember Hacks on Tap (David Axelrod, Mike Gibbs, Mike Murphy) being very critical of him not doing the Super Bowl interview.

I think the State of the Union showed Biden is just at a state he can still function but has to be heavily prepped. And anything unscripted just exposes that weakness. If you don't think that's the case, what the hell is going on with him sometimes then?

If I'm Trump what that means is you have to completely go outside what the Democrats what they expect which will reduce the effectiveness of the coaching, and raise to Biden unexpected questions on issues you know will come up. (For example, "the current Russia-Ukraine War is going on in part because President Obama chose to do nothing about Crimea in 2014 and that emboldened Putin. You were Vice President then, why did Obama make that decision and did you fight him on it?" That would require Biden to go back 10 years into his memory and either throw Obama under a bus or forced to defend him. If he gives a non-answer that's points for Trump.)

Issue is Trump is not that smart and I doubt Trump can be coached by anyone or that restrained, and Biden is going to bait him into traps to get him riled up, he (or rather his campaign) already did.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1791599565725942050

[Agafin]

Unforced error for Biden to push for the mic rule. He won the first debate in 2020 due to Trump being unable to shut up.

Yeah and he can't have another "can you shut up, man" line if the mics are muted.

[President Johnson]

Unforced error for Biden to push for the mic rule. He won the first debate in 2020 due to Trump being unable to shut up.

Yeah and he can't have another "can you shut up, man" line if the mics are muted.

I just want him to call Trump "Jack" at one point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With J 6 Crtroom drama Trump is unlikely to win no matter what the polls are saying

[President Johnson]

Is it this time of the year again?

If I were Biden, I would accept under the condition that Trump publishes his tax returns.

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1791695874512363954

[emailking]

Unforced error for Biden to push for the mic rule. He won the first debate in 2020 due to Trump being unable to shut up.

Yeah and he can't have another "can you shut up, man" line if the mics are muted.

I think that line hurt him with some people.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is it this time of the year again?

If I were Biden, I would accept under the condition that Trump publishes his tax returns.

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1791695874512363954

He sounds very confident in his debating abilities.

[Obama24]

Is it this time of the year again?

If I were Biden, I would accept under the condition that Trump publishes his tax returns.

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1791695874512363954

Biden would never accept to any drug test under any conditions, no matter what was offered in return.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I wonder if Anderson Cooper will start crying again and yelling at people if anyone laughs at Trumps jokes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is it this time of the year again?

If I were Biden, I would accept under the condition that Trump publishes his tax returns.

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1791695874512363954

Biden would never accept to any drug test under any conditions, no matter what was offered in return.

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wonder if Anderson Cooper will start crying again and yelling at people if anyone laughs at Trumps jokes.

No live audience.

[Steve from Lambeth]

I wonder if Anderson Cooper will start crying again and yelling at people if anyone laughs at Trumps jokes.

No live audience.

Folks, you know people say I'm funny. Really funny. I mean, you saw what happened with Peter Kay at that big stadium in Manchester they're building. They had to cancel it because it wasn't ready. They should have asked President Donald John Trump to present there instead. I would do my performance anywhere. I'd do it in a half-built stadium in Manchester, England. Or Mozambique, or Zambia, or in front of the Herbert Hoover Library or anywhere. And I'd attract so many people. So many people. All of them legal, ticket-holding citizens. And I'd make them laugh. Every single one. Hell, I think I might even be able to make old Joe Eighty-Million laugh. But we'll see.