UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[jaichind]

Warwickshire North which LAB #1 target for CON was held by CON on a swing to CON. UKIP also over-performed as well so the shift here from LAB to UKIP was much larger than expected.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

SF holds Belfast West.

[Phony Moderate]

Swings to the left in Scotland and Northern England and swings to the right in the Midlands and Southern England so far...no sign of that old divide disappearing anytime soon.

[afleitch]

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSS!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's all fine everyone because we've just held Easington.

[The Free North]

Huge SNP win

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Murphy goes down.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Tory gain confirmed in Vale of Clywd.

[Pandaguineapig]

These elections all seem like some monty python skit

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The 538 forecast is now 325 for Tories.

I saw that, too.  Then I realized that they had 50+ for the Lib Dems.

Tories are back down to 298 on 538's website.


EDIT:

Something's wrong with the 538 numbers.  They're fluctuating wildly.  I really don't think this is right:

So 538 is now Dick Morris?

[The Free North]

In close seats, conservatives are getting 1-3% swings in their favor almost everywhere.

[BaconBacon96]

This election has been very amusing but not in the way that I expected it to be.

[The Free North]

The 538 forecast is now 325 for Tories.

I saw that, too.  Then I realized that they had 50+ for the Lib Dems.

Tories are back down to 298 on 538's website.


EDIT:

Something's wrong with the 538 numbers.  They're fluctuating wildly.  I really don't think this is right:

So 538 is now Dick Morris?

I believe that is called Karl Rove math

[retromike22]

Although it has no relevance, here are the popular vote percentages with 97 of 650 seats:

LAB   31.7
CON   24.7
SNP   13.2
UKIP   9.6
LD   5.2
DUP   3.3

[DC Al Fine]

Off to bed now.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Tories have officially gained Vale of Clwyd!!!!!

[Paleobrazilian]

Well, I guess the few Lab gains from Con will be thanks to the Lib Dem collapse.

[ObserverIE]

People Before Profit (the SWP in drag) get 19.2% in Belfast West to come second behind SF.

The Tories get 34 votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As per tradition, Lab hold Jarrow.

[Donerail]

The 538 model is based only on projecting from actual results and not considering the exit polls, which explains its seemingly random fluctuations, especially this early.

[ChrisDR68]

These elections all seem like some monty python skit

This is the 9th UK General Election I've observed and is a long, long way the weirdest of the lot

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

We've crossed the hundred-seats-called mark.

[jaichind]

It seems this will be the first time a ruling party will gain both seats and vote share from the previous election since the 1964 -> 1966.   The 2 elections in 1974 would be the only other case but they are so close to each other there is no chance of anti-incumbency to come into play. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It seems this will be the first time a ruling party will gain both seats and vote share from the previous election since the 1964 -> 1966.   The 2 elections in 1974 would be the only other case but they are so close to each other there is no chance of anti-incumbency to come into play. 

I don't think it's obvious yet that they'll gain vote share.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour hold Rotherham