According to my calculations
Seat 420 is NY-25
Seat 421 is NC-14
Seat 422 is TX-38
Seat 423 is AZ-10
Seat 424 is CA-51
Seat 425 is WI-8
Seat 426 is CO-8
Seat 427 is PA-17
Seat 428 is OR-6
Seat 429 is NJ-12
Seat 430 is CA-52
Seat 431 is MT-2
Seat 432 is IL-17
Seat 433 is FL-29
Seat 434 is TX-39
Seat 435 is AL-7
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Seat 436 is NY-26
Seat 437 is MN-8
Seat 438 is OH-16
Seat 439 is CA-53
Seat 440 is VA-12
Seat 441 is RI-2
Seat 442 is ID-3
Seat 443 is TX-40
Seat 444 is GA-15
Seat 445 is MI-14
Seat 446 is FL-30
Seat 447 is CA-54
Seat 448 is WA-11
Seat 449 is NC-15
Seat 450 is PA-18
Idaho's third district has become a virtual certainty by 2030, and it's actually shockingly close to getting one this cycle!
Only 30k people away from getting a third seat, and this is while it gained an average of 26k people every year this decade, and also gained 35k people every year during the last five years!
I know, I was pretty shocked too when I realized how close ID had come. If somehow the estimates are way off and ID did pull an upset in 2020 and gain a 3rd seat, that would be pretty epic, though from a political standpoint, that would likely be another GOP seat. By 2030 though, a 3rd district would likely have to be Boise based.
ID had a higher self-response rate in the 2020 census than in 2010 (70% vs. 67%).
Whether this will lead to a higher counted population relative to the pre-census estimates is unknown.
If ID really gets a 3rd seat already, there should be one in and around Boise (= a Dem leaning one) because Dems regularly get 33% of the vote in ID. This would be fair.
Not really; the bluest compact seat you can get in a 3 district map (which still splits four different counties) is still Trump +10 in 2016, though it voted for the Democratic Gov. and LG candidates in 2018 by 3 and 6 points respectively.
