Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Cokeland Saxton]

Maps of the relative state change in population vs the nationwide average (a.k.a. the bear). Red = you beat the bear and may gain a seat or two in redistricting. Blue = you lose to the bear and the bear may eat you and one or more of your seats.

All you really need to do to avoid the bear is outrun your peers, though, not necessarily the bear.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1211719646837137408

VA is interesting.

They used to grow faster than the US, but not any longer.

Why is that ?

Are they going the way of CA with skyrocketing property/rent prices that are keeping Americans out of the state (immigrants are still moving there) ?

IN is the exact opposite:

It used to grow slower than the US, but now faster.

Why is that ?

Looking at the numbers, IN had a big international migration surplus of +15.000 last year.

Does IN have a lot of military stationed abroad who returned home ?

Because:

Net international migration for the United States includes the international migration of both native and foreign-born populations.  Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the foreign born, (b) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, (c) the net migration of natives to and from the United States, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas.  Net international migration for Puerto Rico includes the migration of native and foreign-born populations between the United States and Puerto Rico.

Could also be immigrants moving to some of the state's manufacturing centers for work. Could also be the Indianapolis suburbs. Guess we will see what parts grew when county estimates come out in March.

[Cokeland Saxton]

California Texas Florida New York Pennsylvania Illinois Ohio Georgia North Carolina Michigan New Jersey Virginia Washington Arizona Massachusetts Tennessee Indiana Missouri Maryland Wisconsin Colorado Minnesota South Carolina Alabama Louisiana Kentucky Oregon Oklahoma Connecticut Utah Iowa Nevada Arkansas Mississippi Kansas New Mexico Nebraska West Virginia Idaho Hawaii New Hampshire Maine Montana Rhode Island Delaware South Dakota North Dakota Alaska Vermont Wyoming

39,512,223 28,995,881 21,477,737 19,453,561 12,801,989 12,671,821 11,689,100 10,617,423 10,488,084 9,986,857 8,882,190 8,535,519 7,614,893 7,278,717 6,892,503 6,829,174 6,732,219 6,137,428 6,045,680 5,822,434 5,758,736 5,639,632 5,148,714 4,903,185 4,648,794 4,467,673 4,217,737 3,956,971 3,565,287 3,205,958 3,155,070 3,080,156 3,017,825 2,976,149 2,913,314 2,096,829 1,934,408 1,792,147 1,787,065 1,415,872 1,359,711 1,344,212 1,068,778 1,059,361 973,764 884,659 762,062 731,545 623,989 578,759

52.589 35.497 26.545 27.355 17.932 18.113 16.285 13.677 13.461 13.953 12.411 11.294 9.493 9.024 9.243 8.959 9.153 8.454 8.150 8.028 7.100 7.487 6.529 6.748 6.400 6.126 5.408 5.296 5.045 3.902 4.301 3.812 4.116 4.190 4.028 2.907 2.578 2.616 2.213 1.920 1.858 1.875 1.397 1.486 1.268 1.149 0.949 1.003 0.883 0.796

52.476 38.510 28.525 25.836 17.002 16.830 15.524 14.101 13.929 13.264 11.797 11.336 10.113 9.667 9.154 9.070 8.941 8.151 8.029 7.733 7.648 7.490 6.838 6.512 6.174 5.934 5.602 5.255 4.735 4.258 4.190 4.091 4.008 3.953 3.869 2.785 2.569 2.380 2.373 1.880 1.806 1.785 1.419 1.407 1.293 1.175 1.012 0.972 0.829 0.769

Goodbye 53rd Good for gain of 3 Good for 2 27th is gone, 26th hanging on 18th is gone 18th is long gone Will just slip blow the threshold, goodbye 16th 14th is guaranteed 14th is gone 12th could be lost in 2030 Falls short of 12th 10th is certain Could save 9th in 2030 8th safe for now, but most likely gone in 2030 Guaranteed 8th Highly likely loss of 8th Farewell 7th 6th all but certain 5th could be lost in 2030 3rd safe for now 3rd is history Possible 3rd in 2030 2nd likely Loss of 2nd all but guaranteed

[Cokeland Saxton]

Welp, Metro Phoenix just pushed Metro Boston out of the top 10 largest MSAs.

[Cokeland Saxton]

My county grew by about 600.

[Cokeland Saxton]

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

It would have to be a massive several 100K undercount for VA to gain.  VA actually fell below nationwide growth in the second half of the decade.  

Wow that's actually suprising, I wonder why that was, I thought VA was growing faster than the rest of the country overall, while the NE and Rust Belt were shrinking. If VA didn't gain and Republicans held onto OH-16 and AL-7 this cycle woukd be decent for them. I wonder if DE will ever gain a district because it's growing at a decent rate and is already at 950k people.

973k, a gain of 76k since the census.

[Cokeland Saxton]

Does anyone know when in May the 2019 estimates at the municipal level are to come out?  Or will that even be in May as planned or will it be delayed due to COVID-19?  The March release of county-level estimates wasn't delayed, but those were likely pretty much finalized by the time things started getting crazy.

It's usually right before Memorial Day

[Cokeland Saxton]

Carmel, Indiana broke 100k, becoming the fifth city in Indiana to do so.

[Cokeland Saxton]

Combining Washington and Baltimore into one CSA makes me wonder if they'd ever do the same with Chicago and Milwaukee.

Also, what cities go over 1 million in the next Decade? Austin appears to be a certainty and might even go over the top with the upcoming census. Do Jacksonville, Fort Worth, Columbus and/or Charlotte get there?

Austin will get there first for sure, and Fort Worth, Columbus, and Charlotte will follow. Jacksonville isn't growing nearly as fast, so probably will be a while for it.

[Cokeland Saxton]

That would likely guarantee Montana a seat and save either Minnesota or Alabama's seat.