🇭🇷 Croatian General Election, April 17th 2024: HDZ-DP coalition to be formed

[Flyersfan232]

Thanks for the very detailed post.

It seems that HDZ is also pretty weak in Zagreb. Any other reason than "big city so more left-wing"??

Are very any voter demographics from past elections?? Like voting behaviour by age, gender or occupation??

HDZ underperform in Zagreb compared to the national average, but that should be expected considering the fact that Zagreb is much more secular and progressive whereas HDZ is seen as more religious and conservative. Still, they get more than 20% in Zagreb too.

Haven't seen any detailed demographic stats for the previous elections - but that doesn't mean they're not around. Maybe someone else can help out.

any calulator for the croatian electoral system???

[Flyersfan232]

what is likely coaltion based on polling?

[Flyersfan232]

so the courts rules against milanovic running now what?

[Flyersfan232]

so the courts rules against milanovic running now what?

The court hasn't been very clear about what is not allowed, exactly - perhaps because they want to give Milanović some additional time to reconsider his actions. The issue is that 'candidate for PM' is no official function with a definition in the constitution. If the SDP manage to form a majority after the election, nobody can prohibit Milanović from resigning as President and becoming PM. However, the constitution does note that the incumbent president cannot engage in partisan electoral activities. It would therefore be logical for the court to ban Milanović from being on a list (meaning he cannot be elected to parliament) and from taking part in campaign activities, such as election debates or handing out flyers on market squares. I suppose the solution will be along these lines.

were the same people that were screaming at poland during the pis years about rule of laws talked about this or are they predictable silent?

[Flyersfan232]

The exit poll turned out to be very accurate. HDZ have only 60, including the three diaspora seats. DP without PIP takes them to 73 and 5 minority seats (all of the non-Serbs) to 78. Let's see if it can be done, and if so, how stable it would be. A new election cannot be completely ruled out.

and for most?

[Flyersfan232]

So this happened on Friday:

"On 19 April, the Constitutional Court ruled that President Zoran Milanović was ineligible to become prime minister in the event that the SDP would be able to form a government, citing his statements and behavior during the electoral campaign. According to the ruling, he would be barred from being given the mandate to form a new government even if he previously resigned as President. Three of the Constitutional Court judges released a dissenting opinion pointing out there are no specific arguments or regulations to justify the decision. They cited "unconstitutional threats" of the Court and criticized the potential undermining of the will of the people. Milanović gave a statement in front of a photo showing "HDZ's man" Miroslav Šeparović, the Court's President, hanging out together with HDZ ministers Oleg Butković and Branko Bačić, accusing the Court of preparing a coup d'état."

The photo in question. Nice flip flops:

how likely is this to results in milanvic losing this winter?

[Flyersfan232]

Andrej Plenković has announced an agreement on the imminent formation of a government consisting of HDZ and DP (minus PiP, which has left the ad hoc alliance). The two parties don't have a majority and will therefore rely on some of the minority representatives, but not on the Serbs. DP will get a Deputy Prime Minister, the Minister of Agriculture, the Minister of Economic Affairs and a new Minister of Demographic Affairs.

Next change to be expected: PM Plenković's departure for some job in Brussels and Defense Minister Ivan Anušić taking over his position. In the April election, Anušić received the most preferential votes of all candidates.

where do you find all this foregin euro news and update on the presidential race?

[Flyersfan232]

Andrej Plenković has announced an agreement on the imminent formation of a government consisting of HDZ and DP (minus PiP, which has left the ad hoc alliance). The two parties don't have a majority and will therefore rely on some of the minority representatives, but not on the Serbs. DP will get a Deputy Prime Minister, the Minister of Agriculture, the Minister of Economic Affairs and a new Minister of Demographic Affairs.

Next change to be expected: PM Plenković's departure for some job in Brussels and Defense Minister Ivan Anušić taking over his position. In the April election, Anušić received the most preferential votes of all candidates.

what hdz faction do ivan belongs too?

[Flyersfan232]

And, how did Milanović reacted to the coalition announcement? Curious to see if he runs for a second term later this year.

didnt his part also talk with dp?

[Flyersfan232]

And, how did Milanović reacted to the coalition announcement? Curious to see if he runs for a second term later this year.

He could lose no incumbent president won reelection in over 19 years