States where the urban-suburban vote or rural vote dominates

[Suburbia]

I would say that Ohio, Iowa and Missouri, the rural vote cancels out or dominates the state compared to the urban-suburban vote in Cleveland/Cincinnati/Columbus/Athens, Des Moines/Dubuque/Cedar Rapids, and St. Louis/Kansas City/Columbia

States where the rural vote dominates the rest of the state's urban/suburban vote:
Ohio
Iowa
Nebraska
Alabama
Mississippi
Tennessee

States where the urban/suburban vote dominates the rest of the state's rural vote:
California
New York
New Jersey
Virginia
Illinois
Maryland
Oregon
Washington

Any others?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Shutout

States where the urban/suburban vote dominates the rest of the state's rural vote:
California
New York
New Jersey
Virginia
Illinois
Maryland
Oregon
Washington

Any others?

Nevada seems the most obvious to me

[Greedo punched first]

What about Minnesota in the past few years? The suburbs have kept the state Democratic.

[Sol]

The base of the Republican electorate in South Carolina is in suburbs and small urban centers.

[Roll Roons]

Shutout

States where the urban/suburban vote dominates the rest of the state's rural vote:
California
New York
New Jersey
Virginia
Illinois
Maryland
Oregon
Washington

Any others?

Nevada seems the most obvious to me

Also Arizona, Colorado and Utah.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

OH is fairly urban, but suburbs of cities like Cincinnati are still red.

[RINO Tom]

There are very few states where the rural vote "dominates" anything.  Just as Democrats use the phrase "land doesn't vote!" about a state with a bunch of Republican counties, the inverse is somewhat true, as well: Republicans don't get most of their votes from those counties.  Republicans usually win a state by ~dominating~ rural counties (with not NEARLY enough votes to win the state), winning rather large exurban/outer suburban counties, keeping it close/winning inner suburban counties and getting quite a few votes from big urban counties even as they lose them by large margins.

With the possible exception of West Virginia, I doubt there are any states where the Republican coalition is majority rural, and there are likely only a handful where it is plurality rural.

[sting in the rafters]

Texas is an underrated example for rural vote. The land west of the I-35 corridor and north of RGV are some of the most conservative areas in the nation.

[RINO Tom]

Texas is an underrated example for rural vote. The land west of the I-35 corridor and north of RGV are some of the most conservative areas in the nation.

Rural voters are like under 15% of voters in every TX exit poll, IIRC.

[sting in the rafters]

Texas is an underrated example for rural vote. The land west of the I-35 corridor and north of RGV are some of the most conservative areas in the nation.

Rural voters are like under 15% of voters in every TX exit poll, IIRC.

Fair point, though that means they get 4-5 congressional districts from that alone

[lfromnj]

Texas is an underrated example for rural vote. The land west of the I-35 corridor and north of RGV are some of the most conservative areas in the nation.

Rural voters are like under 15% of voters in every TX exit poll, IIRC.

Why would you use exit polls which doesnt need polling?



its close but I would put it around 21% for 2016 based on my definition.

[RINO Tom]

^ Easier than compiling data and calculating it, let alone educating myself on each metro county in TX?  Lol.  Either way, rural voters don’t “dominate” anything in Texas.

[lfromnj]

^ Easier than compiling data and calculating it, let alone educating myself on each metro county in TX?  Lol.  Either way, rural voters don’t “dominate” anything in Texas.

True, I just made a quick estimate, but exit polls are pretty bad. Didn't you just quote an exit poll which showed 57-42% for white vote in Cali in 2018?

[Hope For A New Era]

You can't include Mississippi. The rural/urban opposition does not exist there. The state is fully racially locked. Surely you of all people would jump at the chance to go on and on about that.

[morgieb]

I don't think any state counts for the rural vote outweighing the urban vote bar maybe some of the Mountain West states.

As for the urban-suburban vote outweighing the rural one....at this point I think it applies to every Dem state bar New England (and you can add some swing states like Arizona, Georgia, maybe Pennsylvania to that as well).

[Schiff for Senate]

Basically this, though not exactly the same:

Urban: NJ, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, NV, CA, OR, WA, AZ, UT, CO, NM (to some extent), KS (to some extent), TX, MN (the Twin Cities and suburbs compose about half the state's population alone), MI, OH, IL, VA (though it's more suburban in some ways), GA, NC, FL, AK (look at Anchorage), HI (in some ways).

Rural: ID (kind of - the Boise area is expanding and soon ID will be a split, but right now it isn't quite), MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, OK, MO, IA (arguably the most stereotypically rural state along with those in the Great Plains), KY, LA, AR, TN, MS, AL, IN, WV.

There are probably a few I forgot. (Obviously I skipped some states, because not all are fully 'urban' or fully 'rural', SC among them, but I might have forgotten some urban states and some rural states in this list.)

[Sol]

I don't think it's right to describe Idaho or Montana as dominated by rural votes at all.

More people in Idaho live in just Ada, Canyon, Kootenai, Bonneville, and Bannock counties than in the rest of the state combined, and most of the rest of the state lives in small cities and large towns as well, places like Moscow, Lewiston, Twin Falls, or Rexburg. Montana has basically the same pattern, and I suspect the same is true of Wyoming too.