Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET)

[Mr. Morden]

West Virginia polls are open from 6:30am to 7:30pm ET.
Nebraska polls are open from 8:00am to 8:00pm CT, which is 9:00am to 9:00pm ET.

The Nebraska results are meaningless for the Dems, since they already had their caucus some time ago.

Nebraska
AP: link

West Virginia
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/west-virginia

I’m actually not even sure if CNN and NYT will show the Nebraska results, since many of these sites will just show the caucus results.  I’m assuming we’ll at least get something on the SoS site:

http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2016/elections.html

According to Edison Research’s webpage, there *will* be exit polls for both states, but I’m not sure if it’ll be both parties for both states.  I guess it’s possible that they skimp on Dem. exit polls for Nebraska.

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in the state.

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

[Mr. Morden]

62% of Dems who want "less liberal policies" voted Sanders lol

Trying to understand this. Cross over voters?

It's nothing new.  In other states as well, Democratic primary voters who are happy with Obama's policies vote Clinton.  Those who want more liberal policies vote Sanders.  Those who want more conservative policies also vote Sanders.

[Mr. Morden]

Only 59% of the Democratic primary voters self-identify as Democrats.  Clinton won them 50% to 48% for Sanders (according to the exit poll).

[Mr. Morden]

27% of Dem. primary voters want to continue Obama’s policies.  They went:
Clinton 67%
Sanders 32%

27% of Dem. primary voters want more liberal policies.  They went:
Sanders 72%
Clinton 25%

39% of Dem. primary voters want less liberal policies.  They went:
Sanders 62%
Clinton 29%

[Mr. Morden]

If that is correct and assuming I play it fast and loose (assuming the 41% of non-Democrats overlap pretty well with the 42% who want the next President to be less liberal) by combining these three sets of numbers, then it'd look something like 54% Sanders, 41% Clinton, 5% Others.

I already posted the exit poll toplines on the last page (which you can calculate just by doing the math on the male and female %ages):

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

That leaves 5% for other.  Whether that actually holds up in the real results...we'll see.

[Mr. Morden]

I feel like the protest vote might end up being underestimated by the exit. I guess we'll see soon enough.

It may be skewed depending on how the exit poll question is phrased.  Do they just ask "Did you vote for Clinton or Sanders?", or do they read a list of all the candidates, even the cranks?  Or do they not read a list at all, and ask the respondent to volunteer the name, without prompting them with a list?

[Mr. Morden]

I realize that Nebraska is a beauty contest, but are there any Dem. exit poll #s there?  CNN doesn't have them on their website?