Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET)

[Boston Bread]

62% of Dems who want "less liberal policies" voted Sanders lol

Trying to understand this. Cross over voters?

Less liberal is a euphemism for less black to most of these folks.

[cinyc]

62% of Dems who want "less liberal policies" voted Sanders lol

Trying to understand this. Cross over voters?

Conservative Democrats who remain Democrats because it's the only way to cast a meaningful vote in many state and local races.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Surprised Coal Country is on par with the rest of the state

[HAnnA MArin County]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

Bernie himself diminished her wins in the South and wrote them off since "Democrats aren't going to win those states anyway," so using his same "logic," his win in West Virginia tonight is totally irrelevant because it does nothing considering 1) he isn't going to be the nominee and 2) Trump is going to outRomney the state in November. No reasonable Democrat thinks we have a chance there in 2016.

P.S. The media told us that West Virginia voters were dumb racist rednecks in 2008 when she won in a landslide. Is it still safe to call them that after tonight?

[IceSpear]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

If you check Reddit, you'd see many people thinking their votes shouldn't count because they live in the South. So yes, they do "get away with that", and also get away with much worse.

And didn't you say you hoped SC would "get lynched" for voting for Hillary? Probably not in the best position to throw stones here.

[Santander]

God, Chuck Todd just basically said that most WV Dem primary voters were racist rednecks... I like Todd, but that's disgusting.

[Mr. Morden]

62% of Dems who want "less liberal policies" voted Sanders lol

Trying to understand this. Cross over voters?

It's nothing new.  In other states as well, Democratic primary voters who are happy with Obama's policies vote Clinton.  Those who want more liberal policies vote Sanders.  Those who want more conservative policies also vote Sanders.

[IceSpear]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

Bernie himself diminished her wins in the South and wrote them off since "Democrats aren't going to win those states anyway," so using his same "logic," his win in West Virginia tonight is totally irrelevant because it does nothing considered 1) he isn't going to be the nominee and 2) Trump is going to outRomney the state in November.

They were dumb racist rednecks in 2008 when she won in a landslide. Is it still safe to call them that after tonight?

It's going to be fun to contrast the WV response from the "true progressives" in 2008 with their response tonight...

Disgusting racist hicks -> populist heroes!

[LLR]

God, Chuck Todd just basically said that most WV Dem primary voters were racist rednecks... I like Todd, but that's disgusting.

The exit poll numbers support this more than anything else... Although i probably wouldn't call them "racist rednecks", just Dixiecrats.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

How smug, and you didn't answer the question.

Not that you could, but if you asked people that know me it's long been my position that I'd rather be independent but NJ's primary system made it convenient to stay registered as one.  

Now, I've found enough reason to make it official.  Have you seen my avatar?  It's fairly green.

If you read the blockquote, I wasn't even the person you were replying to. So I have no idea why you posed the question to me.

What is the reason you changed it, if not because Sanders lost?

Anyway, see you back on the D ship in a few years.

Nope.  It's why and how.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clinton-and-the-dnc-are-not-just-colluding----theyre-changing-the-rules-for-superdelegates_b_9876274.html

Simply, the validation of existing reservations with the party.  And, of course, my former party ditching economic progressivism in favor of turning back to the Clintons for the foreseeable future.  That's a biggie.

[Mr. Morden]

Only 59% of the Democratic primary voters self-identify as Democrats.  Clinton won them 50% to 48% for Sanders (according to the exit poll).

[HAnnA MArin County]

God, Chuck Todd just basically said that most WV Dem primary voters were racist rednecks... I like Todd, but that's disgusting.

I saw that one coming a mile away (see my previous post). MSNBC cannot help itself but to trash these people. They did the same thing in 2008. "It wasn't a vote for Hillary then, it was a vote AGAINST Obama."

[Adam Griffin]

Not sure if anyone has pointed it out yet, but Bernie Sanders could theoretically get 2/3 of the delegates or so despite only getting 50-55% of the overall vote (this is assuming that none of the protest candidates reach viability).

Scenario #1:
Bernie Sanders 55%
Hillary Clinton 27%
Others 18%

Scenario #2:
Bernie Sanders 50%
Hillary Clinton 25%
Others 25%

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

Bernie himself diminished her wins in the South and wrote them off since "Democrats aren't going to win those states anyway," so using his same "logic," his win in West Virginia tonight is totally irrelevant because it does nothing considering 1) he isn't going to be the nominee and 2) Trump is going to outRomney the state in November. No reasonable Democrat thinks we have a chance there in 2016.

P.S. The media told us that West Virginia voters were dumb racist rednecks in 2008 when she won in a landslide. Is it still safe to call them that after tonight?

They are, in not so nice terms.  I just point the blame far away from them.  

[Mr. Morden]

27% of Dem. primary voters want to continue Obama’s policies.  They went:
Clinton 67%
Sanders 32%

27% of Dem. primary voters want more liberal policies.  They went:
Sanders 72%
Clinton 25%

39% of Dem. primary voters want less liberal policies.  They went:
Sanders 62%
Clinton 29%

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

If you check Reddit, you'd see many people thinking their votes shouldn't count because they live in the South. So yes, they do "get away with that", and also get away with much worse.

And didn't you say you hoped SC would "get lynched" for voting for Hillary? Probably not in the best position to throw stones here.

My unfortunate comment was that casting a vote for Hillary was akin to self-lynching.  Edge-lording a little too hard that night.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Only 59% of the Democratic primary voters self-identify as Democrats.  Clinton won them 50% to 48% for Sanders (according to the exit poll).

Many Bernie supporters no longer self identify with a party that laundered money to circumvent campaign finance laws for a campaign to attack their candidate in the primary.

[Adam Griffin]

Only 59% of the Democratic primary voters self-identify as Democrats.  Clinton won them 50% to 48% for Sanders (according to the exit poll).

Ouch. This is going to be a slaughter, then.





Wait, though: is that a two-way model? I would think there'd be more of a protest presence even there.

If that is correct and assuming I play it fast and loose (assuming the 41% of non-Democrats overlap pretty well with the 42% who want the next President to be less liberal) by combining these three sets of numbers, then it'd look something like 54% Sanders, 41% Clinton, 5% Others.

[IceSpear]

How smug, and you didn't answer the question.

Not that you could, but if you asked people that know me it's long been my position that I'd rather be independent but NJ's primary system made it convenient to stay registered as one.  

Now, I've found enough reason to make it official.  Have you seen my avatar?  It's fairly green.

If you read the blockquote, I wasn't even the person you were replying to. So I have no idea why you posed the question to me.

What is the reason you changed it, if not because Sanders lost?

Anyway, see you back on the D ship in a few years.

Nope.  It's why and how.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clinton-and-the-dnc-are-not-just-colluding----theyre-changing-the-rules-for-superdelegates_b_9876274.html

Simply, the validation of existing reservations with the party.  And, of course, my former party ditching economic progressivism in favor of turning back to the Clintons for the foreseeable future.  That's a biggie.

I've never read such a long article that stated absolutely nothing of value. Typical from Seth Abramson, H.A. Goodman's mini-me.

Hillary Clinton will win by hundreds of elected delegates and millions of votes. Superdelegates, as always, will be irrelevant. What exactly is the problem here?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

West Virginia is pretty much a terrible state anyway.

[Mr. Morden]

If that is correct and assuming I play it fast and loose (assuming the 41% of non-Democrats overlap pretty well with the 42% who want the next President to be less liberal) by combining these three sets of numbers, then it'd look something like 54% Sanders, 41% Clinton, 5% Others.

I already posted the exit poll toplines on the last page (which you can calculate just by doing the math on the male and female %ages):

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

That leaves 5% for other.  Whether that actually holds up in the real results...we'll see.

[Gass3268]

Any idea when we should start getting hard results?

[The Other Castro]

Any idea when we should start getting hard results?

According to Wolf Blitzer, "soon". He did say the same about the missing plane though, so who knows.

[Eraserhead]

I feel like the protest vote might end up being underestimated by the exit. I guess we'll see soon enough.

[Adam Griffin]

If that is correct and assuming I play it fast and loose (assuming the 41% of non-Democrats overlap pretty well with the 42% who want the next President to be less liberal) by combining these three sets of numbers, then it'd look something like 54% Sanders, 41% Clinton, 5% Others.

I already posted the exit poll toplines on the last page (which you can calculate just by doing the math on the male and female %ages):

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

That leaves 5% for other.  Whether that actually holds up in the real results...we'll see.

Both sets of numbers (the exit poll vs my numbers) are within the margin of error of one another, so I guess there is considerable overlap there. I hadn't yet seen those exit poll numbers when I posted mine.