Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/26/the-russians-are-rushing-reinforcements-into-their-ocheretyne-breakthrough-the-situation-is-desperate-for-the-ukrainians/?sh=36193f6a7223

"The Russians Are Rushing Reinforcements Into Their Ocheretyne Breakthrough. For The Ukrainians, The Situation Is Desperate."

[jaichind]

Russian sources say that facing encirclement, it seems Ukraine's forces pulled out of Novokalinovo.  They also indicate that some Ukrainians surrendered in the Berdichy pocket.

[jaichind]

https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/18398201

“Putin could be right”
"German military expert Carlo Masala paints a bleak scenario for the outcome of the Ukraine war - with consequences for Europe's democracy, security and prosperity."

What I said in the winter of 2022 continues to apply: Putin is relying on exhaustion, less at the front than in European societies. This strategy seems to be working. We see that resistance to further aid to Ukraine is growing, slowly but surely; how the voices that think it's enough now are getting louder. This is still the minority, but it is growing. Putin expects that neither the USA nor Europe will be able or willing to provide Ukraine with sufficient long-term support - and he could be right.

[jaichind]

https://www.midilibre.fr/2024/04/26/guerre-en-ukraine-matelas-gonflables-passeurs-des-milliers-de-citoyens-tentent-de-fuir-le-pays-pour-eviter-la-mobilisation-11916003.php

"War in Ukraine: inflatable mattresses, smugglers… thousands of citizens try to flee the country to avoid mobilization"

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian source say that Russians have broken into Netailovo

[jaichind]

AP: Ukraine withdraws M1 Abrams tanks from frontlines due to drones.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-abrams-tanks-19d71475d427875653a2130063a8fb7a

Are they going to alter them so they are less vulnerable to drones?  If not then this seems a move more about protecting the reputation of the USA military-industrial complex than actually helping the Ukraine military cause.

[jaichind]

https://www.blick.ch/ausland/trotz-us-milliardenhilfe-ukraine-kommandanten-warnen-der-donbass-faellt-im-oktober-id19681414.html

"Ukraine commanders warn: “Donbass will fall in October”"

Swiss media: Ukraine officer predict Donbas will fall to Russians by October 2024

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/cd6c28e2-d327-4c2a-a023-098ca43eacfb

"Western banks in Russia paid €800mn in taxes to Kremlin last year"

Collective West Banks in Russia did far more business in Russia in 2022 and 2023 and paid far more in taxes to the Russian government than in the pre-war period.

[jaichind]

Sounds like Afghanistan II

[jaichind]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/04/another-us-precision-guided-weapon-falls-prey-russian-electronic-warfare-us-says/396141/

"Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says"

A new ground-launched version of an air-to-ground weapon developed for Ukraine on a rapid timeline failed to hit targets in part because of Russian electro-magnetic warfare, Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon's acquisition chief, said at an event held by think tank CSIS.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians have recaptured Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia.  This was the main settlement that Ukraine captured as part of its 2023 summer counteroffensive.   

[jaichind]

Russia's change in real wages (left) and Russia's real wages (right) since 2000.  The 2014 sanctions were much more impactful than the 2022 sanctions.

It seems both Russia and Ukraine learned their lessons of 2014 very well.  Ukraine learned of its military vulnerability and between 2014-2022  its military became much more effective and outperformed expectations on the battlefield in this war.  Russia learned of its economic vulnerability and between 2014-2022 made its economy much more sanction-proof and is outperforming economically. 

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say the Russians capture  Keramik and is moving toward Novoaleksandrovka

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/key-insurer-says-russia-oil-price-cap-increasingly-unenforceable

"Key Insurer Says Russia Oil Price Cap Increasingly Unenforceable"

The entire Russian oil cap regime is based using shipping insurance.  At this stage the Russians has built an alternative shipping and shipping insurance ecosystem to make this entire cap system break down, not that it really worked that well in the first place.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russian forces broke through and reached  the canal south of Chasov Yar

[jaichind]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=469771.29050;num_replies=29053

"Ukraine’s $61 bln lifeline is not enough"

The bait and switch is already starting.  Now the $61 billion is not enough.

[jaichind]

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland-und-internationales/experten-und-soldaten-warnen-ukraine-fehlen-soldaten-um-putin-zu-stoppen-662f5680def5782acea6508f

"Ukraine lacks the soldiers to stop Putin"

Dmytro Kukharchuk, commander in the 3rd Separate Brigade, to the TV channel “We are Ukraine”: “We are holding out, but we have a problem. I used to say that the biggest problem is the lack of artillery shells, but today it is the lack of human resources.”

I think the issue is less about having enough men but enough trained men.  The good news for Ukraine is that trained me is less needed in the likely defensive warfare Ukraine will have the wage this year and most likely next.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russians have  captured Paraskovievka en route to Konstantinovka which if captured would cut off the supply route to Ugledar

[jaichind]

Is Ukraine is trying to create its own version of Karine Jean-Pierre?  The chances of someone from Ukraine looking like this person are nearly zero.

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1785558101908742526

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say the Russians have entered into Arkhangelsk

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-02/russians-who-fled-war-return-in-boost-for-putin-s-war-economy

"Russians Who Fled Abroad Return in Boost for Putin’s War Economy"

Based on client data at one relocation firm, Finion in Moscow, an estimated 40%-45% of those who left in 2022 have returned to Russia, said the company’s head, Vyacheslav Kartamyshev.

[jaichind]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/ukraine-is-on-the-brink-says-a-senior-general

"Ukraine is on the brink, says a senior general"



Wait, they already got the $61 billion so what is the point of this article?  It seems this is to set up the next push for the next batch of money to be sent to Ukraine.

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-fortifications-8a72981dfdb755de6f8011b13f4d062e

"No safety in retreat: Ukrainian soldiers say rear defensive lines barely exist amid Russian advance"

Facing an outcry after Avdiivka’s fall, Ukraine is rushing to build concrete-fortified trenches, foxholes, firing positions and other barricades on the front lines. But relentless Russian shelling, lack of equipment and crippling bureaucracy plague construction across the vast 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front, even as a new Russian offensive looms, according to a dozen Ukrainian soldiers, government officials and construction company directors interviewed by The Associated Press.

[jaichind]

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus251315956/Ukraine-Russlands-Horror-Waffe-fuer-die-naechste-Stufe-der-Brutalitaet.html

"With this horror weapon, Russia is reaching the next level of brutality"

Welt writes about the new Russian TOS-3 which is the new Dragon flamethrower system

[jaichind]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1895056/donald-trump-effigy-burned-ukraine-twitter

 "Ukrainian soldiers burn Donald Trump effigy and call him a 'traitor' in shocking video"

Sounds like another chapter in Ukraine genius foreign policy hedging strategy.