Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Georgia, ironically, refuse to join in sanctions against Russia.   Georgia PM Garibashvili says that sanctions would be "irresponsible and harmful".

[jaichind]

Russian defense ministry talking points about ensuring that civilians are not hurt in their attacks reads just like the USA talking points back in 2003 Iraq about the care they are taking to ensure Iraqi civilians are not harmed.  Both are equally farcical.

And, just like in 2003 Iraq, Russia now accuses Ukraine of using civilians as human shields just as the USA made similar accusations against the Iraq government. 

[jaichind]

IFX reports that Russia is now ready to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine.

I guess they figure they have the upper hand and that further gains might get costlier so it makes sense for them to see what they can squeeze out of Ukraine through talks.  And if Ukraine does not show they can tell PRC's Xi that they tried.

[jaichind]

Italy has already made a joke of the whole sanctions process ("against NATO" is a typo):

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1497194009038626842

Indian  media is jumping on this one to say "why are we being pressured to criticize Russia when the Europeans are not serious"

[jaichind]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-russian-commodities

"Chinese State Banks Restrict Financing for Russian Commodities"

I guess this is the nominal action from PRC to placate USA pressure.

[jaichind]

France came out in favor of cutting off Russia from SWIFT.

[jaichind]

In India, as expected, the slow evacuation of Indian citizens from Ukraine is becoming the main topic of discussion regarding the crisis and is really just turning into a blame game between BJP and the opposition on how many Indian citizens have been evacuated and how many Indian citizens previous PMs evacuated in other geopolitical crisis in the past.

[jaichind]

I read this a couple of times now: Ukraine claiming the invasion already cost over 1,000 Russian casualties.

Take this with a HUGE grain of salt. I find it hard to believe, tbh, BUT if remotely true, it would be total disaster for Putin, even if he finally ends up being successful in occupying Ukraine. Just remember the US lost around 4.5k in Iraq over several years, so losing 1k in less than 48 hours would be a disaster of epic magnitude. However, I won't believe it until confirmed by independent sources or intel services of NATO members.

https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1497207616333877253

It is not totally absurd.  The attacking force will take more losses in the initial battles especially if the defense force is fighting from defensive positions.  The defensive side takes most of its losses when the defense breaks and they have to retreat in large numbers.  I can totally see Russians losing men in the hundreds at this phase of the battle.

[jaichind]

Russian media reports that, in a call with Putin, Lukashenko promised that he is totally ready to host a peace conference between Russia and Ukraine and promises total security for such a meeting.

[jaichind]

If these numbers are real indeed, that might explain why Putin no longer seems to rule out peace talks after also receiving pressure from the PRC. That said, a ceasefire can and should only occur mutually.

Perhaps Zelensky can go as far as promising a neutral status of Ukraine for the time being. Putin won't rule Russia forever, he's already close to 70, so Ukraine could join NATO and EU in 10 or 15 years. Not the outcome I would prefer, but better than the loss of so many innocent Ukrainians and a war in Europe.

Ukraine being a core Russian issue is going to be true with or without Putin.  The only way for Russia to not act on that would be for Russia to be so weak (like in the 1990s) that it had to focus on internal problems.

[jaichind]

Unconfirmed : But it seems as if Putin wants a military coup in Ukraine.

Well he did openly call on the Ukrainian military to overthrow Zelensky

[jaichind]

 Kremlin said Kyiv had stopped responding after rejecting Moscow’s initial offer of a meeting in Minsk

[jaichind]

Russian Defense Ministry claims have seized a large quantity of weapons recently supplied by Western countries including American Javelin anti-tank missile systems and British NLAWs.

[jaichind]

Most Indian media are for a neutral or pro-Russia position.  Many seem to be disturbed by Russia's action but there is even greater concern about backing what they consider double standards of the West.  There are many comments about how Canada dealt with the recent protests and Canada lecturing India how India dealt with farm protests of 2020-2021 as part of the hypocrisy of the collective West.

[jaichind]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

Just to be clear, Modi is much more likely to align with the USA over Russia relative to INC.  If INC was in charge the India position is even more likely to be pro-Russia.  Modi is mostly responding to his own elite and public opinion in India.

[jaichind]

Crimea is already done deal, crucial for Russian navy.

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU

This sounds reasonable.  I would also add

Russian as a second official language in Ukraine similar to the role of French in Canada (this would address Putin's claim of "Nazis" since the "Nazis" he is talking about are mostly about Ukrainian/Russian language issues)

Ukraine can join the EU but Russia should get an option to have equal economic access to Ukraine as other EU members on a reciprocal basis

Hopefully "Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return" address Putin''s demand of demilerization of Ukraine

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497322791095484416
Bulgaria closes its airspace to Russian planes. RIA is a Russian news agency, so this is credible. Russian news is not going to make something like this up.

This is surprising.  Bulgaria has always been very pro-Russia historically.  I would have thought they would just take a completely neutral position.

[jaichind]

Russia vetoes the UN Security Council resolution that called on Moscow to halt the attack on Ukraine, withdraw troops.  PRC abstains (leaving it to Russia to do veto themselves.)

[jaichind]

In addition to PRC abstaining on the UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calling for the immediate withdrawal of its forces that Russia vetoed, India and UAE also abstain.  India was expected to abstain (Russia claims that Modi promised this to Putin).  India indeed did act as promised.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc are telling the Biden administration to not take Russia off SWIFT saying that doing so will have far-reaching fallout that could hurt the global economy.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc are telling the Biden administration to not take Russia off SWIFT saying that doing so will have far-reaching fallout that could hurt the global economy.

What the Bloomberg report does not say is that getting Russia off SWIFT might accelerate PRC-Russia plans for de-dollarization.   Europe would not care about this as much but the USA will care a lot.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/25/ukraine-russia-chips-sanctions-tsmc/

"Computer-chip industry begins halting deliveries to Russia in response to U.S. sanctions"

I wonder if Russia might launch counter-sanctions of C4F6,  gases neon, and palladium which is critical to making semiconductors.  If they do that the entire world chip industry might fall into crisis and massively hit supply chain issues related to products that need chips.  I guess like SWIFT on the collective West side, unless Russia gets desperate they will not play this card.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc are telling the Biden administration to not take Russia off SWIFT saying that doing so will have far-reaching fallout that could hurt the global economy.

What the Bloomberg report does not say is that getting Russia off SWIFT might accelerate PRC-Russia plans for de-dollarization.   Europe would not care about this as much but the USA will care a lot.

China and Russia don't do well in terms of their currency being traded a lot. China loses to Switzerland and almost loses to Hong Kong. And Russia is much lower than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencies

Totally true.  But if Russia and PRC use their payment transfer system instead of SWIFT and does all their trade  CNY or RUB then these number will get higher.  They can then rope in countries like Iran to use this alternative system.  Doing so will have huge transition costs and clearly they rather delay doing this but if Russia is cut off from SWIFT they will go this route.

[jaichind]

Ukraine needs to find a way to, ahem, halt, the entry of those heavy pieces before they even reach the border.

One impression I had of the Russian attack so far is that it does appear light.  Namely, Ukraine's internet and other infrastructure seem untouched.  So far this assault seems more like a very large commando raid they a real military invasion.  It seems Russia wants to take Ukraine whole without damage thinking Ukraine will fold within a couple of days.  It seems that assumption is incorrect and now Russia risks making the same mistake the USA did in the Vietnam War of a slow escalation when they should have gone in all out on day one.

[jaichind]

I doubt 62% of Americans can point the Ukraine on a map. no offense.

I think it is more about Trump being so unpredictable that Putin would not be able to calculate the odds of cost/benefit effectively and as a result just do nothing and wait until Trump is gone.