Argentina General Discussion: Shock Therapy

[CumbrianLefty]

The punditariat class of the LATAM press truly reunites some the most disgusting people of the planet

If they were American style they’d just be spending all day interviewing Fernandez-Milei voters in small town cantinas in Salta or Chubut.

In the UK the equivalent is interviewing pensioners during daytime hours in town centres.

[Peeperkorn]

Maybe we should start clarifying concepts, because I feel we are living under a collective delusion. Also, from now on, I'll try to avoid commiseration. Argentina looks like a laboratory right now and no one in the world will ever feel safe from the reactionary pandemic in its multiple variants.  Save me your condescension, western folks: Trump, Milei and the bloodthirsty Netanyahu are everyehere.

• Milei is not a liberal. He believes neither in equal opportunities nor in the srparation of powers inherent to liberal democracies.

• Milei is not a "libertarian". He is authoritarian and advocates a form of government known as Minarchy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night-watchman_state#Philosophy

A night-watchman state, or minarchy, whose proponents are known as minarchists, is a model of a state that is limited and minimal, whose functions depend on libertarian theory. Right-libertarians support it only as an enforcer of the non-aggression principle by providing citizens with the military, the police, and courts, thereby protecting them from aggression, theft, breach of contract, fraud, and enforcing property  

That is to say, reducing the state to rubble, preserving only the repressive apparatus and the monopololy of force. In practice, this leads to an authoritarian form of government. Inevitably anarcho-capitalism and total deregulation will foster gross unequalities, with the subsequent social unrest. The state's only function under this system will be to preserve the privileges of the people able to pay for them.

XX Century Communists advocated Dictatorship of the Proletariat. Milei and the XXI Century Minarchists are seeking to implement the Dictatorship of the Markets and the Law of the Strongest. They won't hesitate in deploying the police and the military to enforce the new order and suppress all opposition.

I would never dare to make fun or minimize Milei's proposals as "crazy stuff". Quite possibly many Argentinians voted for him believing that he was not going to implement his full agenda, but Milei always makes clear he's serious. When Milei states he's going to implement a Shock Therapy,  he's serious. When the Human Capital ministry warns that protesters will lose payments and benefits, it is serious. When Milei sends the Enabling Act to Congress,  he's acting in all seriousness.

It's up to see if the Congress and other institutions will be effective counterweights to Milei,  but stop treating him as a clown. Milei is serious.

We probably don't agree ideologically, but most of this post is true. Milei's ideology ("anarco-capitalist in principle, minarchist for practical reasons" in his own words) is as dangerous as any other "utopian" ideology that underestimates the complexity of human nature (like Marxism).

But that's another reason I resist to compare Milei to Trump or Bolsonaro. Milei comes from the academic world; he actually believes what he says (essentially the destruction of the State) and would apply it completely and without hesitation if he had enough power.

I prefer to think of Milei as a temporary necessary craziness to bring Argentina back to the "almost developed nations" club after decades of overspending, clientelism and corruption. But on the other hand, it's never a good idea to have a fanatic ideologue leading a country...

[Velasco]

[
We probably don't agree ideologically, but most of this post is true. Milei's ideology ("anarco-capitalist in principle, minarchist for practical reasons" in his own words) is as dangerous as any other "utopian" ideology that underestimates the complexity of human nature (like Marxism).

But that's another reason I resist to compare Milei to Trump or Bolsonaro. Milei comes from the academic world; he actually believes what he says (essentially the destruction of the State) and would apply it completely and without hesitation if he had enough power.

I prefer to think of Milei as a temporary necessary craziness to bring Argentina back to the "almost developed nations" club after decades of overspending, clientelism and corruption. But on the other hand, it's never a good idea to have a fanatic ideologue leading a country...

I made my point referring to a generic "reactionary wave" (or "pandemic"). Javier Milei, Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Viktor Orban and Vladimir Putin are singular characters. They are all rightwingers and share a staunch reactionarism, but they express it in different ways.

In terms of economic policies Milei clearly differs with Trump's protectionist statements, but in the end both share the aversion to tax the rich. In terms of geopolitical alignment, Milei states he's a staunch ally of the US and Israel and enemy of Russia. However, it's notorious the ambivalence of Trump towards Putin (not to mention Putin and Netanyahu were 'special friends'). There’s also a significant difference between Milei and Putin with regards the state's intervention in economy, but Russia is nowadays a capitalist country and in no way Putin can be characterized as a communist.

I guess it's more comforting to think about Milei as a neccessary evil, but you'll have to admit that he poses a real threat of authoritarian involution, as you concur with me that he's absolutely serious.

We don't need to share a common ideology to realize about it, just to share common values or ideas about democracy and a basic knowledge in contemporary history. The fascination that normal rightwingers feel towards Milei is worthy of note.

With regards to utopian ideologies, there's a fundamental difference between Karl Marx and the likes of Milton Friedman. Marx made actually an accurate diagnosis of economic relations in the contemporary world. Regardless of whether his political recipes were wrong, Marx's influence transcends his ideology or school of thought.

We have seen already the failure of the 'real socialism' utopia. I hope that Argentina can escape from the horrors of a minarchist dystopia

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/sejasubversivo/status/1741090536319041635
A right-wing Venezuelan medical student that got publicity for supporting Milei in order to not make Argentina “a new Venezuela” will not be able to keep studying for free in Buenos Aires University with the new measures imposed by Milei.

If he doesn’t have the means to keep paying his studies, he will have to go back to Venezuela.

He recorded a video lamenting the situation LMAO

https://twitter.com/ArrepentidosLLA/status/1740175322539245970
https://twitter.com/Apoloskf/status/1741094525118894469/mediaViewer?currentTweet...
Gustavo Petro, president from Colombia has also made a pronouncement about this new measure for foreign students in Argentina:

https://twitter.com/petrogustavo/status/1740749099098337493

[kaoras]

That's actually a rather sensible measure considering the state of Argentina's finances but the schadenfreude is delicious.

[Peeperkorn]

It's kind of crazy that you were able to go to college for free in Argentina without even being a resident. I don't know any other country that does that. In Uruguay you can go the Universidad de la Republica for free, but a three years residency is (obviously?) required.

And I don't understand why Petro is complaining here considering than Colombia doesn't offer the same benefit for its citizens.

[Velasco]

That's actually a rather sensible measure considering the state of Argentina's finances but the schadenfreude is delicious.

I could feel empathy towards that Venezuelan student coming drom the future, but maybe another student from Peru could have warned Argentinians about the dangers of voting for someone who will turn the country inside out in the authoritarian fashion of Fujimori. You can say whatever you want about Massa, but he's not like Maduro

[wnwnwn]

That's actually a rather sensible measure considering the state of Argentina's finances but the schadenfreude is delicious.

I could feel empathy towards that Venezuelan student coming drom the future, but maybe another student from Peru could have warned Argentinians about the dangers of voting for someone who will turn the country inside out in the authoritarian fashion of Fujimori. You can say whatever you want about Massa, but he's not like Maduro

Peruvians generally support the policies of our central bank, which current form started after reforms by Fujimori. Before that, we had Alan Garcia and hiperinflation and a situation similar to Fernandez's Argetina. I don't think most peruvians would persuade people to vote for Massa.
The issues most related to Fujimori was corruption, Grupo Colina (a paramilitary group), forced sterilizations and the impulse of 'chicha culture' and 'trash television' (Laura Bozzo became popular in the 90s). I don't think Milei has show sings to support a paramilitary group or forced sterilizations.

[Velasco]

That's actually a rather sensible measure considering the state of Argentina's finances but the schadenfreude is delicious.

I could feel empathy towards that Venezuelan student coming drom the future, but maybe another student from Peru could have warned Argentinians about the dangers of voting for someone who will turn the country inside out in the authoritarian fashion of Fujimori. You can say whatever you want about Massa, but he's not like Maduro

Peruvians generally support the policies of our central bank, which current form started after reforms by Fujimori. Before that, we had Alan Garcia and hiperinflation and a situation similar to Fernandez's Argetina. I don't think most peruvians would persuade people to vote for Massa.
The issues most related to Fujimori was corruption, Grupo Colina (a paramilitary group), forced sterilizations and the impulse of 'chicha culture' and 'trash television' (Laura Bozzo became popular in the 90s). I don't think Milei has show sings to support a paramilitary group or forced sterilizations.

Milei has shown clear signs that he will be ready to suppress opposition resorting to the police and the military,  as well as he is demanding extraordinary powers to govern bypasing the parliament. In that respect he can resemble Fujimori and other right-wing authoritarian leaders in Latin America. Of course it's unlikely Milei will embark in forced sterilizations and nowadays there's nothing resembling the Shining Path in Argentina.  On the other hand, crumbling economies are good breeding grounds for authoritarianism. I hope there's enough people in Peru rejecting Fujimori's legacy.

Anyway my point was that Argentina is not like Venezuela (or Peru, for that matter). Resorting to comparisons between Maduro and other leaders left-of-the-centre (Massa is not a leftist, but whatever) is an usual form of demagoguery in both sides of the Atlantic (Spain and Latin America). I see more sinilarities between Milei and Fujimori compared to Massa and Maduro, but that's not very relevant. Authoritarianism is never a good solution, neither in Peru nor in Venezuela

[wnwnwn]

Alberto Fujimori knew how to get people support him. He made the self coup only as he expected the people to support him after that (most peruvians did). That's not the case with Milei, who seems dissasociated from the average argentinian.
Also, Milei's oposition is way more organized that Fujimori's opposition was in the early 90s.
About human right violations, they were also done by 'democratic' peruvian presidents before Fujimori. During Belaunde's first term in the 60s, the goverment did a genocide on matze natives during the construcción of a highway. Also, Alan Garcia had his own paramilitary.
Milei has the luck that his opposition is easy to ridiculize. In the 1990 run-off campaing in Peru, the idea of massive layoffs of goverment workers had some racial connotacions. In campaing, Fujimori accused Vargas Llosa to support them indirectly as effect of MVLL's economic platform, remarking the supposed racial connotations of an ad he did on a monkey in an office (it was actually agaisnt APRA members that were high level goverment positions back then, not average peruvian clerks). The white passing (at least for peruvian standarts) Vargas Llosa, maybe occulting his feelings, didn't defend himself well. Small thigns like this helped japanese peruvian Fujimori to win. Both in 1990's Peru and 2023's Argentina, 'ghost jobs' in goverment offices were a fact. Fujimori did the massive layoffs, but he correlated them with APRA unqualifed members in ghost jobs (which were a good part of the people affected), so most peruvians accepted the measure. Milei is doing the same, in this case with the 'noquis' (peronists in 'ghost job' positions). As a good part of them are as white as Milei, it's hard to make racial connotations on the massive layoffs. Actually, it was one of the less controversials parts of his campaing.
Some say goverments newd bread and circus to survive. Mieli's policies try to make sure that most argentinians will have at least some bread during the probably difficult mext years, and the circus seem to be done with his 'anti-casta' measures agaisnt peronists. As peronists organizations get out of the welfare system, he may offer bread and circus at the same time. The argentinian cultural industries will suffer, but Milei needs the support of the masses to survive and he may get it if he plays his cards well.

[Red Velvet]

A common joke in Brazilian left/center social media circles about Argentina these days is that they’re being paid in Bananas as Milei apparently approved (or it’s something in his decree) something related to employers and workers being free to agree on different payment deals as Peso is worth less these days. That could mean deals to be paid in Dollars but also Food instead of actual money.

A smart news headline about this used “Meat; Bananas and Bitcoin” as random examples of what Argentines could be theoretically paid with and this was enough to viralize here but with only the Bananas part sticking into Brazilians heads because of the “Macaco” racial slurs Brazilians sometimes hear from Argentines in football disputes or in social media discussions.

There isn’t any report (yet) of anyone actually being paid with bananas that I’m aware of but this is something that comes across as so absurd but ironic and funny into Brazilian heads that there is the sudden construction of this abstract collective imaginary that Argentina is so poor now that they have to be paid with Bananas.

The original news article in Brazil that caused this, mentioning “Carne, Banana and Bitcoin” as salary options: https://revistaforum.com.br/global/2023/12/23/javier-milei-libera-geral-trabalhador-argentino-pode-receber-salario-em-carne-banana-ou-bitcoin-151026.html

Example of social media reacting and amplifying this news with focus on the “Bananas” part:

https://twitter.com/fellipeeeeeeee/status/1738969691819831791
https://twitter.com/claramoreiraFr/status/1740849892589719862
Tweet pointing out that picking to use “Bananas” as an example of what Argentines could be paid with was fully a Brazilian media choice and that no one in Argentina has ever reported anything like that:

https://twitter.com/ItaloPetraglia/status/1739810119704031250
This created big confusion to me in regards what the Milei minister decree actually says about this matter. Is it “full freedom” between employers and workers deals that at least theoretically workers COULD be paid with Bananas or was this a Brazilian media exaggeration for the lolz and there will still be government regulations and State presence in order to prohibit food from be used as a payment method instead of money?

Argentines I see online are extremely confused about the new Brazilian meme about them being paid with Bananas under Milei and I’m confused on whether their confusion comes from the fact choosing “Bananas” as a random food example of possible payment is fully a Brazilian media choice OR if the decision approved by the Milei says something different from what was reported to us and food of any kind won’t be able to replace actual currency as a payment method, only other currencies like Dollars and Bitcoin?

[Red Velvet]

The Diana Mondino government tweet making the announcement is unclear whether “Bananas” would be an allowed possibility but it does mention food options as a possibility: kilos of Meat and liters of Milk more specifically.

https://twitter.com/DianaMondino/status/1737878455637733690

Which does suggest that any kind of food is allowed as payment as long as the amount delivered is correspondent to its currency value? Which is crazy to me, but validates the “Banana” meme.

[Peeperkorn]

Changing the topic a little bit, the most surprising thing about the last developments in Argentina is how Milei's support is stronger among young voters:



If I'm not mistaken this is the only case of right-wing populism that performs better with this demographic. Both Brazil 2022 and USA 2020 were the opposite.

[Velasco]

I don't know if that's post-election analysis or new polling, but Milei's popularity among young voters is not surprising to me. Someone who is selling anti-establishment slogans and turnjng everything inside out is likely to be more attractive to them than a career politician bred in the old peronist machine

[Horus]

Changing the topic a little bit, the most surprising thing about the late developments in Argentina is how Milei's support is stronger among young voters:



If I'm not mistaken this is the only case of right-wing populism that performs better with this demographic. Both Brazil 2022 and USA 2020 were the opposite.

Outside of abortion he's not socially conservative, someone asked him about ssm and his response was something to the extent of "marry a kitchen cabinet if you want, I don't care." Maybe that plays a part.

Also young voters just like being anti establishment, and that's true everywhere.

[Red Velvet]

Changing the topic a little bit, the most surprising thing about the last developments in Argentina is how Milei's support is stronger among young voters:



If I'm not mistaken this is the only case of right-wing populism that performs better with this demographic. Both Brazil 2022 and USA 2020 were the opposite.

Brazil 2022 and USA 2020 are bad comparison, Brazil 2018 and USA 2016 are more appropriate because that’s where the right-wing populist novelty won.

Bolsonaro had more youth support in 2018 than 2022. However, even in 2018 the youth was more to the left in comparison to older voters.

Here’s DATAFOLHA last poll in Brazil 2018 amongst all voters, 16-24 year old voters and 60+ year old voters:

GENERAL: That’s basically 55,8% Bolsonaro vs 44,2% Haddad, very close to the actual runoff result of 55,1% Bolsonaro


AGES 16-24


AGES 60+


So yeah, even in comparison to Brazil 2018 the youth in Argentina tends to be more right-wing friendly than older voters. There are reasons for this IMO:

1 - Milei associated himself harsher to right-wing economics while Bolsonaro associated himself harsher to right-wing conservative social policies.

Naturally, these two usually go alongside each other, with Milei mostly supporting conservative social policies too and Bolsonaro bringing right-wing economy people to his campaign. But by the rhetoric you can obviously tell what is the priority for each of those figures. Milei being reducing the size of government in the economy as most as possible and Bolsonaro being the Gun agenda besides strengthening the military presence in government.

Young people are naturally more socially progressive in comparison to older generations but not necessarily more economically left-wing at all. That makes someone with Milei image be less toxic than Bolsonaro amongst younger voters.

2 - Argentina economic situation is waaaay more critical than Brazil ever was in 2018 and younger voters tend to be amongst the most affected by this scenario as they’re the ones entering the job market.

That leads for them to be more desperate to try new things and Milei certainly represents something entirely new for Argentina, that really hasn’t been tried before in that country. Bolsonaro never really represented the same “novelty” that appeals to the youth in the same extent at all, being a throwback to military governments that Brazil already had during dictatorship mixed with a establishment bland economic policy from right-wing governments we already had in the past.

3 - Lula has actually good credentials regarding his legacy while Peronism not so much, at least in recent years. This stimulates better popularity for the left in Brazil than Argentina in terms of the youth, who were little children when Lula was in government for the 1st time.

Argentina and Brazil paths actually tend to mirror each other up until 2001: Both had populists which helped industrialize the country (Getúlio Vargas and Perón), followed by Military Dictatorships in similar periods and then the hyperinflation period in the late 80s/early 90s and then the neoliberal leaders in the 90s (Incompetent Collor and the Competent FHC in Brazil; Menem in Argentina).

2001 was a divergence point though, as that crisis happened only in Argentina and they never really seemed able to fully recover from it. Both countries had the left leading in 00s with popular results for both, which were also good in short term, but that hides differences we already had then:

- Plano Real was a more effective solution to the previous hyperinflation period than the one Argentina had, where they had a convertible policy to the Dollar. Brazil protected its sovereignty and had a more flexible creative solution of creating the URV, being helped by being one of the few countries in LatAm that was benefited by superavits in foreign trade at that specific time if its creation, which helped back it.

- Brazil managed to accumulate tons of international reserves during Lula and Dilma years, which worked as a safety net during the bad decade that was the 2010s, while Argentina didn’t to similar levels. Seriously, the generation of Primary Superavits in Brazil up to 2013 by PT governments was unmatched.

Basically, the Itamar/FHC in 90s and Lula/PT in 00s combo were the backbone that helped structure Brazil and differentiate its path when worst and internationally unfavorable periods arrived in 2001 and the 2010s as a decade as whole.

Argentina currency plan was only good enough until 2001, when they had to deal with severe consequences for it. Brazil economy in same year had a downturn that made FHC more unpopular and opened door for Lula’s victory in 2002 but didn’t nearly crash the country like everything happening to De La Rua.

And the PT governments successes in generating high superavits in 00s created a reserve safety net for Brazil in 2010s, which was still a lost decade for us but the country still managed to survive it without a major economic trauma like what we see going on in Argentina, which was already in a more vulnerable place before the commodities boom ended.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro only spread chaos to Brazil image internationally. That leads to the obvious perception that the left is the more “pragmatic and economically responsible side” when the crazy unstable Right replaced the “pragmatic right” that was the legacy of FHC.

In Argentina, all that history I’ve told, regardless the governments were Right or Left, they were all Peronist regardless, meaning they’re perceived as main figures associated to the situation they are now.

So when an extremist like Milei appears offering an alternative to the youth to those figures - he’ll be bound to be more appealing to them than Bolsonaro simply based on the fact rejection for Peronism is stronger than rejection for Lula. And the far-right main fuel is always based on hate for their adversaries, as the far-right agenda is based on the destruction of whatever exists instead of actual construction of anything.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In other news, the Qom protest that has been ongoing since 2020 was ended after Bullrich and Pettovello visited the chief after years of stonewalling.

https://twitter.com/MinSeg/status/1740506968639656249

The use of brutal negotiations and dialogue are just another example of the ruthlessness of the Milei regime. Everyone thought he would just sit around doing nothing but now that he's violated the separation of powers by sending laws to Congress for approval and using the DNU we can all see that he'll be throwing all the dissidents into prison before you know it. The authoritarian tyrant must be stopped before he can further reduce the power of his totalitarian government.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Milei's Government & Governability

Ministers:

Economy Minister: Luis Caputo (PRO)
Minister of Interior: Guillermo Francos (PJ -> LLA)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Diana Mondino (Ind. -> LLA)
Defence Minister: Luis Petri (UCR)
Security Minister: Patricia "Pato" Bullrich (PRO)
Justice & Human Rights Minister: Mariano Cúneo Libarona (PJ -> LLA)
Minister of Health: Mario Russo (Ind. -> LLA)
Minister of Infrastructure: Guillermo Ferraro (PJ -> LLA) AXED!
Minister of Human Capital: Sandra Pettovello (Ind. -> LLA)

House of Deputies (257):

Government:

LLA (and affiliates): 42

Allies:

PRO: 37

Independents:

UCR: 34
HCF: 23
IF: 9
Independencia: 3
SER: 2
PyT: 2
CREO: 1

Opposition:

UxP: 98
FIT-U: 5

Senate (72):

Government:

LLA (and affiliates): 7

Allies:

PRO: 6

Independents:

UCR: 13
CF: 4
UF: 3
FRCS: 3
SER: 2
JS
JSRN: 1

Opposition:

UxP: 33

In the immediate aftermath of the election it seemed like Milei would be an extremely weak president despite his overwhelming second round victory. With just 7 Senators and a few dozen deputies, passage of any legislation would require the near total support of the non-UxP parties, a tall order when the crossbench includes nominal socialists and outspoken opponents of Milei's agenda. It was widely expected that Milei would be forced to moderate his positions to win a legislative majority. Kirchnerists already started to call him "Javier Delay" for his perceived weakness.

Instead, Milei chose to bet everything on a hardline, comprehensive reform of the entire Argentine state in the form of a DNU and "La Ley de Bases y Puntos de Partida para la Libertad de los Argentinos", an omnibus bill containing all the reforms that can't constitutionally be included in the DNU. Talking about those reforms would be a post in itself but crucially the DNU has, with the exception of some labour reforms that have faced legal challenge, already gone into effect thanks to the implicit support of the Senate. The "Ley de Bases" is still currently under debate but is also expected to pass with some modification. Rather than simply moderating his positions Milei pulled together a majority effectively through directly pressuring the power players of Argentine politics, perhaps most importantly the governors.

Argentina is, at least in theory, a highly federal country with powerful governors who wield great authority and influence both locally and (more importantly for Milei) in the national legislature. Many of the deputies and senators who nominally correspond to one major coalition or the other effectively answer directly to the governors of their provinces, making the support of the governors key to any law getting through. However, the governors have a critical weakness: in recent years all but the wealthiest provinces have become dependent on discretionary federal transfer money. So while angry governors can hurt a president by withholding their legislative support, an angry president can cripple governors he doesn't like by simply refusing to send them any more than the legally mandated minimum coparticipation. Many of the taxes Massa eliminated in a desperate bid to bribe voters also fill provincial coffers and crucially the restoration of those taxes hasn't been included in the omnibus bill, with Milei explicitly stating that he'll take the political hit of restoring taxes only if he has his legislative majority guaranteed.

Probably the best example of Milei's "carrot and stick" strategy has been in the north, where two traditional Peronist fiefdoms took radically different approaches to Milei. In La Rioja, recently reelected governor Quintela took a completely intransigent stance and announced that he'd create a new provincial currency to pay government workers. Whereas in Tucumán the newly elected governor Jaldo declared his full support for the reforms and pulled 3 UxP deputies into a new Independencia, the latest blow to the Peronist front after losing several deputies in the opening days to the newly formed Innovación Federal, another bloc responding to provincial governors. Jaldo didn't get nothing for his sudden change of allegiance; provisions relating to the powerful sugar industry centered in Tucumán were quietly removed from the bill.

On that note, the bill seems to be very clearly designed to pressure provincial governors by targeting key industries and the most powerful lobbyists of their respective provinces for reform. Besides the previously mentioned case of the sugar industry, there have also been modifications in biofuel standards removed in exchange for legislative support from the governor of Santa Fe and deregulation of Yerba Mate production targeting the key crossbenchers from Misiones. Of course in some cases the reforms are actually favourable to the interests of the governors, particularly the provinces which stand to benefit from the reduction of laws hostile to exporters.

No province better exemplifies how Argentine governors respond to interests more than ideology than Santa Cruz. The newly elected Claudio Vidal is nominally a Peronist, his party is basically an arm of the oil workers union and he leads the province that birthed Kirchnerism, yet he's generally taken a conciliatory position towards Milei and even discussed using Santa Cruz as a test case for school vouchers, an issue Milei technically ran on but has little direct power over, since education is a provincial matter in Argentina. The fact that Milei's reforms are largely favouble to his core constituency of oil and gas workers overrides whatever nominal ideological disagreements may exist.

Speaking of unions, Argentina have historically been famously powerful, capable of bringing the entire nation to a halt at will and bringing down entire governments. Yet once again Milei didn't back down from a fight and proposed labour reforms that would radically reduce the power of the unions. Immediately the CGT called a general strike for the 24th of January, making Milei's presidency last the shortest time of any before a strike. Yet participation in the strike was relatively low; just like among the governors, there was a big split among the unions on how to react to Milei. On the one extreme, Pablo Moyano of the truckers union advocated total opposition while the previously mentioned oil and gas workers union didn't participate at all. Others like the dockworkers only implemented a partial slowdown rather than a strike. While Milei's reforms reduce union power overall, many are nonetheless willing to accept a reduction in such powers in exchange for the prospect of an economic recovery or to growth in their particular sectors.

If Milei is able to bring together a governing majority that lasts even half his term then far from being the weakest Argentine President he may wind up being the strongest since Peron. Historically powerful leaders like Kirchner or Menem were ultimately dependent on the support of preexisting political structures and power players and even international "right wing populists" like Trump and Bolsonaro wouldn't have gotten far without the Republican Party or the Brazilian agricultural industry. Milei, in contrast, won using a political party he built from scratch filled with young fans converted over the internet and people he knows personally (for example, Francos used to be his coworker and Scioli used to be his boss). He isn't dependent on anyone and with the unusual dominance of the Argentine executive branch granted by the precedent set by Peron combined with the emergency powers provided by the omnibus bill he could well be just as powerful and nationally transformative as Bukele in El Salvador.

Of course, all this hinges on Milei's reforms resolving the economic crisis. It seems like he'll get the benefit of the doubt for the start of the administration but if he doesn't produce results within a year or two then many of those currently working with Milei could easily turn against him.

[GP270watch]

Poverty in Argentina hits 20-year high at 57.4%, study says

[Red Velvet]

Poverty in Argentina hits 20-year high at 57.4%, study says

I read Milei gave only 30% raise on minimum wage when yearly Inflation is already above 250% now. I cannot grasp how people survive with this.

OTOH the government is making surpluses now. The bet people seem to be making is that short to medium term big sacrifices are necessary in order to stabilize the economy.

That means there will be goodwill towards Milei for at least the next two years, where most people will be willing to accept that kind of stuff, which includes the poverty rise. However, if the economic scenario ISN’T stabilized and reversed that will generate an even bigger resentment because people won’t accept living like that forever.

[wnwnwn]

Poverty in Argentina hits 20-year high at 57.4%, study says

I read Milei gave only 30% raise on minimum wage when yearly Inflation is already above 250% now. I cannot grasp how people survive with this.

OTOH the government is making surpluses now. The bet people seem to be making is that short to medium term big sacrifices are necessary in order to stabilize the economy.

That means there will be goodwill towards Milei for at least the next two years, where most people will be willing to accept that kind of stuff, which includes the poverty rise. However, if the economic scenario ISN’T stabilized and reversed that will generate an even bigger resentment because people won’t accept living like that forever.

Milei is doing a 'shock', a massive reducción of subsidies to reduce fiscal spending and help inflation reduce i  the long term. This was expected.

The problem is that Milei supossedly increased welfare spending to avoid massive hunger, but this measures doesn't seem to translate to funding for 'comedores populares'(soup kitchens):

https://elpais.com/argentina/2024-02-25/milei-ahoga-a-los-comedores-populares-antes-era-dificil-ahora-es-peor.html

Where would be the money going?...

Maybe the goverment has created alternatives. Am I right or wrong?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Poverty in Argentina hits 20-year high at 57.4%, study says

I read Milei gave only 30% raise on minimum wage when yearly Inflation is already above 250% now. I cannot grasp how people survive with this.

OTOH the government is making surpluses now. The bet people seem to be making is that short to medium term big sacrifices are necessary in order to stabilize the economy.

That means there will be goodwill towards Milei for at least the next two years, where most people will be willing to accept that kind of stuff, which includes the poverty rise. However, if the economic scenario ISN’T stabilized and reversed that will generate an even bigger resentment because people won’t accept living like that forever.

Milei is doing a 'shock', a massive reducción of subsidies to reduce fiscal spending and help inflation reduce i  the long term. This was expected.

The problem is that Milei supossedly increased welfare spending to avoid massive hunger, but this measures doesn't seem to translate to funding for 'comedores populares'(soup kitchens):

https://elpais.com/argentina/2024-02-25/milei-ahoga-a-los-comedores-populares-antes-era-dificil-ahora-es-peor.html

Where would be the money going?...

Maybe the goverment has created alternatives. Am I right or wrong?

The problem is that a lot of those soup kitchens and other welfare functions are run by so-called "social movements" that extort recipients to turn out for political rallies and even force women into prostitution to get their money. The government is trying to cut out the middlemen and replace them by massively increasing pretty much every direct cash benefit from the minimum pension to per-child subsidies. Not a perfect solution considering how much of the current welfare distribution infrastructure is under the control of said middlemen but letting literal criminals run the social plans during a crisis is definitely worse.

Recent news:

* Inflation seems to be on the downtrend, having spiked to 26% in December before falling to 21% in January and now 13% for February. It seems safe to say Milei has managed to avoid 1989 style hyperinflation, though the cost is that Argentina will instead have to deal with a deep 2002-esque recession.

* Milei decided to troll the feminists by replacing the Hall of Women with the Hall of Heroes, featuring such historic figures as Juan Alberdi, José de San Martín, Julio Argentino Roca and most controversially Carlos Menem for some reason. Has Milei's Menemphilia gone too far?

* There was controversy over a decree that increased the salaries of legislators by more than the rate of inflation. Milei responded by firing his labour secretary live on TV and repealing the increase.

* Several men were killed on the same night in Rosario, home of football GOAT Lionel Messi and by far the most dangerous city in Argentina. In response, both the provincial and national governments announced Bukele-esque measures to crack down on "narcoterrorism", sending in federal police backed by the military.

[PSOL]

There’s a high chance that the election of Milei is a new epoch in global history and will lead to a rise of libertarian parties worldwide just as labor parties did. By all accounts Milei is shrewd and has a good chance to succeed.

[wnwnwn]

There’s a high chance that the election of Milei is a new epoch in global history and will lead to a rise of libertarian parties worldwide just as labor parties did. By all accounts Milei is shrewd and has a good chance to succeed.

Argentina has a very particular situation and Milei policies hasn't been that much different to what right wingers in other country would do in his case.

[Vosem]

There’s a high chance that the election of Milei is a new epoch in global history and will lead to a rise of libertarian parties worldwide just as labor parties did. By all accounts Milei is shrewd and has a good chance to succeed.

Argentina has a very particular situation and Milei policies hasn't been that much different to what right wingers in other country would do in his case.

Is Chris Watson really remembered for much other than being the first world leader from a labor party? He depended on Alfred Deakin for confidence and supply and his government didn't end up being very different from what any other protectionist government would have done at that time. It was still a milestone in the history of the labor movement, though.