NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[SnowLabrador]

I consider this race Tilt R. After running some calculations, I think the most likely scenario is either Tillis winning by 4 points (50.9-46.9-2.2 or so) or losing by:

Democrat: 49.7%
Thom Tillis (Incumbent): 48.1%
Independent: 2.2%

The Democrats will target this seat; it's probably a must-win for them.

[SnowLabrador]

If he does, I think he'd be favored. If he provides strong enough coattails, we might even hold the governorship. But anyone who thinks Tillis would lose by more than 2-4 points is kidding themselves.

[SnowLabrador]

Beating Tillis requires a good candidate, I hope either Jackson or Stein will run.

[SnowLabrador]

I believe this was addressed earlier in the thread, but her health won't permit that. Hagan got Powassan virus back in 2016.

[SnowLabrador]

I hope he does run. It's pretty much him or bust for Democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

According to a new poll, Tillis's approval rating among all adults is 23/33, 25/36 among registered voters, and 27/40 among 2018 voters. Really surprises me that so many North Carolinians have no opinion of their junior Senator.

More to the point, this serves as strong evidence that Tillis is in big trouble. A good poll for Democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

Here you go: http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2019/02/64memoA.pdf

[SnowLabrador]

Dang it! Now Jeff Jackson has to run. Otherwise the Democrats will not pick up the seat.

[SnowLabrador]

If Jackson has totally ruled it out as well, that's not good. Foxx would be a bad idea, since he's now a lobbyist and used to work for Obama. It's Jackson or bust.

[SnowLabrador]

Schumer sucks at recruitment.

[SnowLabrador]

If I had to bet, Jackson waits until the seat opens up in 2022.

Which really sucks. We need NC's Class 2 seat in 2020, not the Class 3 seat in 2022. Well, it would be nice to have that seat in 2022, but we need to take back the majority next year at all costs.

[SnowLabrador]

I believe Iowa and North Carolina are both good targets for us, but I see Iowa as more winnable, even though North Carolina will be more competitive in the Presidential Race, simply because we have a larger bench in Iowa to choose from.

More candidates does not mean more good candidates. If Trump wins Iowa by double digits, there's no way Joni Ernst loses barring a breathtaking scandal. Also, Ernst is much more popular than Tillis and will almost certainly run ahead of Trump. Tillis may very well run behind Trump.

[SnowLabrador]

I hope he is running. He could definitely beat Tillis.

[SnowLabrador]

LOL as if those groups weren't trying to paint Kander the same way

This. At first, Missouri wasn't considered to be that competitive of a race, but by election day it was tossup/tilt R.

[SnowLabrador]

It'll be a close race for sure, but I'll feel much better if Jeff Jackson runs.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not the first one to say this here, but Tillis is in better shape than it appears. Yeah, he has low approval numbers, but they're either from Democrats (who are going to oppose him anyway) or Republicans who think he's not right-wing enough. Those Republicans will, by and large, still vote for him in the general election.

I think Tillis is favored, just because Trump is favored to carry North Carolina in 2020. It's as simple as that.

[SnowLabrador]

Republicans are running ads for Erica Smith, touting her as "the only proven progressive in the race."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/politics/north-carolina-republican-democratic-primary/index.html

Pulling a Mcaskill right there.

I'm pretty progressive, but Cal Cunningham needs to win the primary. Smith is raising very little money.

[SnowLabrador]

So it's officially Tillis vs. Cunningham. Not surprised, but it is exciting that it's now official.

[SnowLabrador]

I agree with almost all of that accept that 2022 is shaping up to most likely be a Republican year

Nothing indicates this so far.
Do you say this based on anything tangible?

Based on 2010 and 1994 and the certainty the economy will still have high unemployment even if recovering.

This.

Joe Biden is clearly up in the polls, especially where it matters.

The economy will not at all recover in two years from this so you have a Dem president with a terrible economy. I don't think thats great news for democrats.

And then Biden proceeds to lose in 2024, or just retire and be replaced by Tom Cotton.

[SnowLabrador]

Holy guacamole

https://twitter.com/ameliakfox/status/1290999210091962370

I'm becoming more and more convinced that Tillis will lose this race. Probably not by 9 points as some polling indicates, though.

[SnowLabrador]

From the debate today:

https://mobile.twitter.com/joebrunowsoc9/status/1308550733684518918?s=21

At least neither seem like they are currently addicts, but NGL, Tillis's answer was a bit creepy.

Honestly, I didn't care to know that.

[SnowLabrador]

Watching the debate right now, and Cunningham looks so much younger than Tillis. For some reason I thought he was like 60 but apparently he's 47. It's good to have younger voices in the senate, so that makes me glad.

Well, yeah, Cunningham's 13 years younger than Tillis, so that shouldn't be surprising.

[SnowLabrador]

Cal Cunningham probably has COVID too, since they debated just last night and did a fist bump. Stay away from Republicans, people, for the sake of your health.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean D -> Tilt R.

[SnowLabrador]

Congratulations to re-elected Senator Thom Tillis.