Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's

[Nyvin]

I think the Republicans will retain a minimum of 6 seats in California no matter how much the state trends.

Districts 1, 4, and 8 are the rural hinterlands districts that Dems have no appeal in, and between the Bakersfield and Orange county areas it's hard seeing the GOP not getting at least another three seats.   

Out of the three areas probably Orange county (area) has the biggest chance to completely wipe out the Republicans, but I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

[hopper]

I think the Republicans will retain a minimum of 6 seats in California no matter how much the state trends.

Districts 1, 4, and 8 are the rural hinterlands districts that Dems have no appeal in, and between the Bakersfield and Orange county areas it's hard seeing the GOP not getting at least another three seats.  

Out of the three areas probably Orange county (area) has the biggest chance to completely wipe out the Republicans, but I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

Well the long term trends in OC were against R's even before Trump. He'll just exacerbate them. Then the trends in the Central Valley, Antelope Valley, and eventually Calvert's district in the 2020s. Hunter's could be at risk in a mild D gerrymander. That's where I came up with the 3-4 number. 2 in rural CA, and 1-2 more in Kern County/Hunter's district. Though Kern County is on track to become majority minority too.

I do wonder how long it will be before CA Districts "bottom out" and CA Hispanics at least vote like CA Non-Hispanic Whites. This scenario might happen in my mid to late 60's age wise and I am 37 years old now so 2047?

[hopper]

If the Democrats can gain every Clinton/Republican CD in 2018 while defending all incumbents, that's only one seat away from a majority. Of course, that's easier said than done, since a lot of those incumbents are really strong, and a lot of those Clinton voters in those districts didn't really have a problem with the Republican Party as a whole (although that might change depending on what Congress does in the next two years). But I assume there are a bunch of narrow Trump/Republican CDs that can be flipped as well if 2018 is a more Democratic year than 2016. So, while the Republicans are favored to keep the House, they don't have it locked down.

I can think of a few off the bat:
FL-18, GA-6, GA-7, IA-1, IA-3, ME-2, MI-11, MN-2, NJ-2, NJ-3, NY-19, NY-2 (King retires), PA-8,VA-2, WA-3. Some of these lack a bench for Dems, but that didn't seem to matter in a lot of seats at this point in the 2006/2010 cycles.

No I don't see Republicans losing IA-01 or MI-11 for now even in a big wave especially IA-01.

[Nyvin]

If the Democrats can gain every Clinton/Republican CD in 2018 while defending all incumbents, that's only one seat away from a majority. Of course, that's easier said than done, since a lot of those incumbents are really strong, and a lot of those Clinton voters in those districts didn't really have a problem with the Republican Party as a whole (although that might change depending on what Congress does in the next two years). But I assume there are a bunch of narrow Trump/Republican CDs that can be flipped as well if 2018 is a more Democratic year than 2016. So, while the Republicans are favored to keep the House, they don't have it locked down.

I can think of a few off the bat:
FL-18, GA-6, GA-7, IA-1, IA-3, ME-2, MI-11, MN-2, NJ-2, NJ-3, NY-19, NY-2 (King retires), PA-8,VA-2, WA-3. Some of these lack a bench for Dems, but that didn't seem to matter in a lot of seats at this point in the 2006/2010 cycles.

No I don't see Republicans losing IA-01 or MI-11 for now even in a big wave especially IA-01.

Why not?   They were both within 3-4 points.  MI-11 even trended dem pretty significantly too.

[hopper]

If the Democrats can gain every Clinton/Republican CD in 2018 while defending all incumbents, that's only one seat away from a majority. Of course, that's easier said than done, since a lot of those incumbents are really strong, and a lot of those Clinton voters in those districts didn't really have a problem with the Republican Party as a whole (although that might change depending on what Congress does in the next two years). But I assume there are a bunch of narrow Trump/Republican CDs that can be flipped as well if 2018 is a more Democratic year than 2016. So, while the Republicans are favored to keep the House, they don't have it locked down.

I can think of a few off the bat:
FL-18, GA-6, GA-7, IA-1, IA-3, ME-2, MI-11, MN-2, NJ-2, NJ-3, NY-19, NY-2 (King retires), PA-8,VA-2, WA-3. Some of these lack a bench for Dems, but that didn't seem to matter in a lot of seats at this point in the 2006/2010 cycles.

No I don't see Republicans losing IA-01 or MI-11 for now even in a big wave especially IA-01.

Why not?   They were both within 3-4 points.  MI-11 even trended dem pretty significantly too.

MI-11 only trended Dem a little bit. IA-01 trended Republican I'm pretty sure in 2016.

[publicunofficial]

If the Democrats can gain every Clinton/Republican CD in 2018 while defending all incumbents, that's only one seat away from a majority. Of course, that's easier said than done, since a lot of those incumbents are really strong, and a lot of those Clinton voters in those districts didn't really have a problem with the Republican Party as a whole (although that might change depending on what Congress does in the next two years). But I assume there are a bunch of narrow Trump/Republican CDs that can be flipped as well if 2018 is a more Democratic year than 2016. So, while the Republicans are favored to keep the House, they don't have it locked down.

I can think of a few off the bat:
FL-18, GA-6, GA-7, IA-1, IA-3, ME-2, MI-11, MN-2, NJ-2, NJ-3, NY-19, NY-2 (King retires), PA-8,VA-2, WA-3. Some of these lack a bench for Dems, but that didn't seem to matter in a lot of seats at this point in the 2006/2010 cycles.

No I don't see Republicans losing IA-01 or MI-11 for now even in a big wave especially IA-01.

Why not?   They were both within 3-4 points.  MI-11 even trended dem pretty significantly too.

MI-11 only trended Dem a little bit. IA-01 trended Republican I'm pretty sure in 2016.

IA-01 has the same PVI as IA-02.