Tipping Point
Newbie
Posts: 4
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« on: March 31, 2020, 10:30:38 AM » |
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Oregon - whites lining up with the national trends but they'll be about 60% Republican there vs 70% nationally so Democrats will have a shot, but it'll be on borrowed time. Tossup initially considered a lean D state who could become the Wisconsin of 2030 and become lean R later.
Washington - if Oregon 2030 = Wisconsin 2016. Washington 2030 = Minnesota 2016
Arizona - depends on how immigration does but probably lean D.
Texas - tilt R, it'll become the next Florida alongside North Carolina
North Carolina - see Texas
Georgia - lean D
Illinois - lean D
Pennsylvania- lean R
Most will be lean D because the Obama-Trump states who flipped in 2016 will quickly become likely R except for Pennsylvania (because of the Philly burbs). Also the likes of Maine and NH will swing like WV and their swingy phase won't last until 2030-40.
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