2012 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Another grand coalition in Saarland?  Wow, big change there.

Why's that? This would be the first grand coalition Saarland had since 1961.

I think he meant, yet another state with a grand coalition, the Saar this time.

Have had a look at those precincts. Will get closer, but no way does Rhein win this.

[minionofmidas]

Half the precincts are in. Wow, counting is fast when there's only one vote and two piles to make.

Feldmann 58.4%. This looks like a landslide folks. This is 3 percentage points beyond my wildest dreams.

[minionofmidas]

Nieder-Erlenbach is complete. Rhein 60.6% (+3.9), turnout 51.0% (-1.3).

So is the Riederwald. Rhein 26.5% (-1.5), turnout 32.5% (-1.3).

Lol, it's a partial result with no postal votes, but Feldmann is ahead in Westend North!

BTW: Feldmann is the SPD-guy in Frankfurt ? When was the last time Frankfurt had a SPD-mayor ?

1989 to 1995. Two of them, both ruined by the SPD right wing disliking their Green coalition partner and hating the SPD left wing.
Then we had the newly introduced direct elections and a popular moderate female Landtag member as CDU candidate... and now she's been mayor for literally half my life, but now retiring.
At the last local elections of course, the SPD dropped to third place behind the CDU's Green coalition partner...

[minionofmidas]

Presumably there are personal 'issues' between the Saarland SPD and Saarland Left? Given that the latter are defectors from the former?

These seemed surmountable as recently as the last state election. But the German left (political caste) right now is pathetic, there's really no other word for it. That includes the Left as well as the SPD and Greens. And hence the emergence of the Pirates.

[minionofmidas]

Still 58.0%. Party time. If I were Olaf Cunitz or Sarah Sorge I'd think about resigning right now, but then that's part of the reason why I'm not.

[minionofmidas]

Results:

http://www.statistikextern.saarland.de/wahlen/wahlen/2012/internet_saar/LT_SL_12/landesergebnisse

I have much prettier results!

http://www.wahlen.frankfurt.de/

[minionofmidas]

Oh yeah, the PARTEI auctioned off its endorsement on ebay (money raised to be donated to the Zoo for cuter animals, the renovation of the meerkats' place to be precise.) A Feldmann supporter payed 122 Euros for it.

[minionofmidas]

In which precinct of Frankfurt are you living again ?

080 01. 64% Feldmann, 0% turnout (okay 21% + postal voters, but still...)

I have much prettier results!

Any idea why it's such a (pretty) blowout?

Green voters came through for Feldmann anyways just as I expected, FAG voters did actually come through for Feldmann as I didn't expect. Those South Sachsenhausen precincts are deep black when the airport's not an issue. And then... uh... what, exactly? My personal ideas on what drove (comparative) youth turnout in the first round look to have been accurate - more of an anti Rhein vote than anything else, for all of the minor candidates. I mean, this is the state interior minister after all. I know what the Ultras think of him...

[minionofmidas]

And Feldmann did actually win Westend North. By six votes and all, but still. Unterliederbach, too, and almost won Berkersheim.

Also, the last dozen precincts are annoying me by not coming through.

[minionofmidas]

Final result. 57.4%. 35.1% turnout. My mom's new precinct on the very edge of official North End where nobody would ever think themselves not in Bornheim was one of Feldmann's strongest in the entire city. 77.2%. (That special Ginnheim precinct gave him 82%, though.)

[minionofmidas]

Westend South, Zeilsheim, Sossenheim, Berkersheim, the four in the north. That's it. Anything else is a sea of red.

Some of these places haven't been carried by the SPD since the mid 70s, if then.

[minionofmidas]

Meanwhile, the CDU repeats its win in the city of Saarbrücken.

By 2 votes.

[minionofmidas]

Things repeat on the Saar... the last few municipalities just don't want through. Worth noting the Greens are on 5.1% right now with Saarbrücken and Saarlouis already in.

[minionofmidas]

Not going to bother with how the seat distribution will work out, so here's just the top two candidates from each of the three regional lists for the Pirates.

     and definitely not least

EDIT: Removed the two people not elected.

[minionofmidas]

Notable Saarland figures:

- FDP beats the NPD by 267 votes and therefore manages to come in seventh instead of eighth.

- Precise result for the Greens is 5.039%.

Well, drat. And drat.

[minionofmidas]

It's not as if the office is all powerful or anything. Or as if Hesse had a tradition of direct mayoral elections that predated the tradition of low turnout in lesser elections - things may sometimes be different in rural settings, but in the cities and the suburbs mayoral elections have the lowest turnout of all.

(And I think that if the CDU had gone with someone less prominent and thus divisive, treasurer Uwe Becker, say, they would have won this election. On an even lower turnout.)

[minionofmidas]

Fun fact: in the 2001 runoff, turnout rose in exactly one neighborhood - the Riederwald - and the CDU score actually fell in exactly one neighborhood - Sindlingen.
In the 2012 runoff, turnout rose in exactly one neighborhood - Bockenheim this time - and the CDU score actually fell in two. The Riederwald. And Sindlingen.
I wonder if there's some kind of crazy explanation or it's just random.

[minionofmidas]

How lackluster does FDP leadership have to be, for their party to barely beat the Nazis for seventh place? I thought the Liberal Party of Canada set the world record for terrible party leadership.

It doesn't help that these snap elections were caused by the complete breakdown of the FDP parliamentary party in the state.

[minionofmidas]

I like this picture.

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt, absentee result Feldmann 50.5%, day vote result Feldmann 59.0%.

Basically the same people cast absentee votes in the runoff as in the first round - simply because most people who requested an absentee ballot did so for both rounds at the same time. (All you had to do was check a different box.) And indeed, fewer of the requested postals came back for round two than round one - though the decrease was less than in the day vote, meaning the share of the total vote that was absentee was marginally up further.

Oh, and here's that table again.



Lol.

[minionofmidas]

He is, he is. The other two are Maas and Kramp-Karrenbauer.

[minionofmidas]

Piratesurge!

Emnid: CDU 36, SPD 27, Greens 13, Pirates 9, Left 7, FDP 3
Forsa: CDU 35, SPD 25, Greens 13, Pirates 12, Left 9, FDP 3

Maybe the SPD should tolerate a Green-Pirate-Left minority coalition after the federal elections.

[minionofmidas]

Why don't the Greens and the Pirates merge - I can't imagine that they are all that far apart on the issues and they must both appeal to a similar segment of the population.

Somewhat similar. Certainly the Pirates wouldn't have emerged if the Greens were still the 80s Greens.

[minionofmidas]

Well yeah, I mostly meant the whole joining the establishment (or rather being joined by people who want to make a career in establishment politics) thing.

[minionofmidas]

Wow, just took the SlH Wahlomat. I knew the state CDU is that dreadful, but I didn't know how bad the Greens were.

My result
Left 82/102
SSW 72/102
SPD 71/102
Pirates 71/102
Greens 59/102
FW 57/102
NPD 45/102
CDU 31/102

I did not include joke parties (you can include 8 parties maximum).