Kander is a top notch recruit for this office. He probably loses by high single to low double digits though. But it looks better to oppose a potentially vulnerable Senator in a wave with someone competent than leaving the seat to be fought for by some dude.
I'm fairly confident even this early that this will be a single digit race. People really overestimate just how red is Missouri is. Had Obama contested the state, he probably would've cut the margin by a few points. Hillary plays better than Obama there, and there were tons of Romney/Nixon/McCaskill voters anyway. Nevertheless, Blunt is obviously the favorite for now.
Polls showed mccaskill losing by more than Obama before Todd Akin happened so her crossover support from that election is exaggerated, Missouri while still somewhat swingy is trending red at a pretty fast pace given that Obama went from coming within a couple thousand votes to losing by double digits in four years. Kander is in the same position Carnahan was in years ago, he will probably come closer than she did but Blunt has a massive war chest and will be the first to define him
