Tokyo prefectural election, July 2 2017

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 124 out of 127 called   

TPFA        49
TPFA(Ind)   6
KP           23
LDP         21
JRP            1
DP             5
SNT           1
JCP          18

Asahi  now has it at with all 127 out of 127 called   

TPFA        49
TPFA(Ind)  6
KP           23
LDP         23
JRP            1
DP             5
SNT           0
JCP          19

 

[jaichind]

JCP at 19 seats is just amazing.   I wonder what their vote share is.  I have to compute this later today.

[jaichind]

KP and LDP ties for second place in terms of seats. 

[jaichind]

Asahi projection with all seats called.

[jaichind]

What is funny about this setback is that it comes at a time when Japan is actually getting closer to the inflation targets that BOJ and Abe regime had in mind when they started Abeconomics back in 2012-2013.  It was clear Abeconomics was going no where in 2013-2016 period but Abe seems to steamroll the opposition.  Now that it seems to be working, or at least signs of it, is when Abe gets hammered.

[jaichind]

In a large number of districts LDP has been beaten into 4th place behind TPFA, KP, JCP.  Just amazing.  A swing of another 1% of so against LDP in terms of tactical voting would have driven LDP into 4th place in terms of seats behind TPFA, KP and JCP.

[jaichind]

Japan's elections make Australia's seem like Usain Bolt when he runs the 100 meters...

Part of it is because what is on NHK are fairly late compared to the data at the local count centers.  This is why a lot of times the media calls the race for one candidate when the other candidate is ahead on the NHK count.  

Makes sense.

Also, are NHK rounding up the individual candidates vote totals to the nearest 500 or something?

Yep.  These media agents at the counting centers do not have access to the exact countil so they just estimate to the closest 500. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you've got ward figures or something I might be able to make some maps...

[jaichind]

My gut calculation of vote share by glancing the results are TPFA+ 39% KP 12% LDP 22% DP 7% JCP 15%

[jaichind]

Once you take into account of pro-LDP independents and LDP rebels I think this is the worst result of any LDP led bloc in any Japanese prefectural election since the 1980s and possibly since the 1950s when the LDP was founded.

[jaichind]

If you've got ward figures or something I might be able to make some maps...

Thanks.  I doubt I have any.  Although I will post some vote share by township I saw on various Japanese election boards.

[jaichind]

TPFA vote share.  Note that 6 TPFA backed independents were retroactively inducted into TPFA by winning their seats.  So these vote shares included the votes of these 6 winners.  This is TPFA's version of the old LDP rule "If you win you are LDP"

[jaichind]

LDP vote share

[jaichind]

KP vote share

[jaichind]

JCP vote share.  Note there were 4 JCP backed independents that I counted as part of JCP but I am pretty sure this chart does not.  

[jaichind]

DP vote share

[jaichind]

Latest national JNN poll taken on the day before and election day has Abe approval falling quickly to 43.3/55.5

[jaichind]

Manichi headline says "LDP Historic Debacle"

[jaichind]

Defense Minister 稲田 朋美 (Inada Tomomi), key ally of Abe, suggested Tuesday that the Self-Defense Forces support a LDP candidate on Sunday's Tokyo election.  



In a stump speech at a campaign rally in Tokyo's Itabashi Ward, Inada asked voters to cast ballots for her party's candidate, saying the request came from "the Defense Ministry, the SDF, the defense minister and the LDP." Hours later, she told reporters she will "withdraw" the remarks on the grounds they can be "misunderstood."  Inada's original remarks appeared to deviate from the principle of neutrality expected of an administrative branch. A law governing the SDF imposes restrictions on the political activities of their personnel.

JNN poll says Inada should resign 63/29.  In my view the Inada incident days before the election was the turning factor in turning a LDP defeat to a catastrophic meltdown. 

[jaichind]

5 seats for DP is too poor of a showing for Renho to survive.  I figure she needed something like 9-10 to do so.  There will be calls for her to reign.  I can also see possible future DP defectors and splinters created, especially if she does not resign.

[jaichind]

3- seat 目黒(Meguro) district is yet another LDP nomination screwup

TPFA   41.9% elected
KP      16.8% elected
JCP     16.3% elected
LDP    12.7%
LDP    12.2%

[Lachi]

Looks like Murata isn't the only leader now on life support...

[jaichind]

Center-Left nomination screw up.  8- seat 世田谷(Setagaya) district

TPFA           18.8%  elected
TPFA           13.1%  elected
KP              11.2%  elected
JCP              9.2%   elected
LDP              8.8%  elected
DP                7.9%  elected
LDP              6.9%  elected
LDP              4.8%  elected
SNT              4.0%
Minor Left     3.5%  (SDP)
Minor Left     3.5%
JRP               3.0%

I predicted that SNT would win a seat beating out LDP but underestimated how much of the vote the 2 Minor Left candidates would pull from SNT.

[jaichind]

Another center-left nomination screw-up.   6- member 杉並(Suginami) district

TPFA          16.7%  elected
TPFA          15.1%  elected
JCP            13.1%  elected
KP             12.2%  elected
LDP           11.8%  elected
LDP           10.3%  elected
SNT            6.8%   
DP              6.7% 
DP              3.4%

I actually called this district correctly on the premise that SNT and the 2 DP candidates would lose a seat they collectively deserved. 

[Lachi]

So the center-left could have done a little bit better if the nominations went their way?