2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Mark Walker update:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1202604632293421056

Running for the senate would be a bad, bad idea.

[Storr]

Mark Walker update:

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1202604632293421056

Running for the senate would be a bad, bad idea.

He lives in the new Democratic 6th District, so that may be some of his logic? I'm not sure how much voters in the new 13th (many who are currently represented by Walker) would actually care, though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Brad Parscale tweeted out an internal poll that showed support for impeachment in OK-05 at 45%. Not sure what he was thinking, but if support is that high in the 5th, not only is the district clearly shifting Democrat but it’s good news for the Democratic majority lol.

Pollsters from both sides of the aisle are roasting him for it.

https://twitter.com/parscale/status/1202704225224003584

[Landslide Lyndon]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, not sure how he thought that poll was good for Trump. 45% in OK-05 for impeachment is pretty damn high.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Brad Parscale tweeted out an internal poll that showed support for impeachment in OK-05 at 45%. Not sure what he was thinking, but if support is that high in the 5th, not only is the district clearly shifting Democrat but it’s good news for the Democratic majority lol.

Pollsters from both sides of the aisle are roasting him for it.

https://twitter.com/parscale/status/1202704225224003584

Parscale is SUPER salty there's a Dem rep in Oklahoma

[Person Man]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

He's some wannabe mountain man who thinks he is Karl Rove. He's no Karl Rove.

[Pollster]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

He's some wannabe mountain man who thinks he is Karl Rove. He's no Karl Rove.

He's not even Steve Bannon (who was a laughably bad political strategist but one of the only ones to fully understand the modern Republican base).

[Person Man]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

He's some wannabe mountain man who thinks he is Karl Rove. He's no Karl Rove.

He's not even Steve Bannon (who was a laughably bad political strategist but one of the only ones to fully understand the modern Republican base).

He was at least good enough to win the Republicans a decent trifecta and respectable EV win despite losing convincingly at the top of the ticket.

[Pollster]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

He's some wannabe mountain man who thinks he is Karl Rove. He's no Karl Rove.

He's not even Steve Bannon (who was a laughably bad political strategist but one of the only ones to fully understand the modern Republican base).

He was at least good enough to win the Republicans a decent trifecta and respectable EV win despite losing convincingly at the top of the ticket.

I credit Kellyanne Conway - who is and always has been for the most part a very good strategist despite what she is now known for - with that. I trust Bannon played a role, but his disastrous strategy skills I think have only ever been on full display in the 2017 Alabama special election.

[Person Man]

The guy is considered Trump's brain. And boy, does he live up to his reputation.

He's some wannabe mountain man who thinks he is Karl Rove. He's no Karl Rove.

He's not even Steve Bannon (who was a laughably bad political strategist but one of the only ones to fully understand the modern Republican base).

He was at least good enough to win the Republicans a decent trifecta and respectable EV win despite losing convincingly at the top of the ticket.

I credit Kellyanne Conway - who is and always has been for the most part a very good strategist despite what she is now known for - with that. I trust Bannon played a role, but his disastrous strategy skills I think have only ever been on full display in the 2017 Alabama special election.

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

[Young Conservative]

Brad Parscale tweeted out an internal poll that showed support for impeachment in OK-05 at 45%. Not sure what he was thinking, but if support is that high in the 5th, not only is the district clearly shifting Democrat but it’s good news for the Democratic majority lol.

Pollsters from both sides of the aisle are roasting him for it.

https://twitter.com/parscale/status/1202704225224003584

Parscale is SUPER salty there's a Dem rep in Oklahoma

it also shows a Democrat down by 7...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Brad Parscale tweeted out an internal poll that showed support for impeachment in OK-05 at 45%. Not sure what he was thinking, but if support is that high in the 5th, not only is the district clearly shifting Democrat but it’s good news for the Democratic majority lol.

Pollsters from both sides of the aisle are roasting him for it.

https://twitter.com/parscale/status/1202704225224003584

Parscale is SUPER salty there's a Dem rep in Oklahoma

it also shows a Democrat down by 7...

Why poll a generic Democrat when there is already an incumbent running?

[slothdem]

Brad Parscale tweeted out an internal poll that showed support for impeachment in OK-05 at 45%. Not sure what he was thinking, but if support is that high in the 5th, not only is the district clearly shifting Democrat but it’s good news for the Democratic majority lol.

Pollsters from both sides of the aisle are roasting him for it.

https://twitter.com/parscale/status/1202704225224003584

Parscale is SUPER salty there's a Dem rep in Oklahoma

it also shows a Democrat down by 7...

If a Generic R is leading a Generic D by 7 in a district that Trump won by 13% then that means the district is trending left fast, the national environment is strongly democratic, or (most likely) a combination of both.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

Imagine being gullible enough to believe that. George Conaway is anti-Trump, but the idea that he and his wife are actually feuding is kinda bs tbh.

[Pollster]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

Imagine being gullible enough to believe that. George Conaway is anti-Trump, but the idea that he and his wife are actually feuding is kinda bs tbh.

Kellyanne is incredibly good, obviously, at being whatever she needs to be. I agree she's probably the best strategist the party has right now, yet still nothing compared to Rove (and therein lies the problem for the party, essentially). Jeff Roe definitely has Rove's cunning, but notably lacks his record of success. Corry Bliss is looking like a massive bust as well.

Dems are sort of in a strategist bind as well, many of the ones who thrived in the late Bush/early Obama years have seen their stars fade (many veterans of the field were infamously blacklisted by the national party in the aftermath of 2010) and they are notoriously slower than the GOP to prop up rising stars.

[libertpaulian]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

Imagine being gullible enough to believe that. George Conaway is anti-Trump, but the idea that he and his wife are actually feuding is kinda bs tbh.

George and Kellyanne=Carville and Matalin for Millennials and Zoomers.

[Gracile]

Inside Elections released their initial ratings of NC's new congressional districts:

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-december-6-2019

NC-02: Likely D
NC-06: Likely D
NC-08: Likely R
NC-09: Lean R

Every other seat is either Solid D or Solid R for the party that holds them.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

Imagine being gullible enough to believe that. George Conaway is anti-Trump, but the idea that he and his wife are actually feuding is kinda bs tbh.

Kellyanne is incredibly good, obviously, at being whatever she needs to be. I agree she's probably the best strategist the party has right now, yet still nothing compared to Rove (and therein lies the problem for the party, essentially). Jeff Roe definitely has Rove's cunning, but notably lacks his record of success. Corry Bliss is looking like a massive bust as well.

Dems are sort of in a strategist bind as well, many of the ones who thrived in the late Bush/early Obama years have seen their stars fade (many veterans of the field were infamously blacklisted by the national party in the aftermath of 2010) and they are notoriously slower than the GOP to prop up rising stars.

Why were they blacklisted?

[Brittain33]

Inside Elections released their initial ratings of NC's new congressional districts:

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-december-6-2019

NC-02: Likely D
NC-06: Likely D
NC-08: Likely R
NC-09: Lean R

Every other seat is either Solid D or Solid R for the party that holds them.

Was this the one who said they put NC-2 and NC-6 as Likely rather than Safe only to keep them on the chart as visible pickups?

[Oryxslayer]

Inside Elections released their initial ratings of NC's new congressional districts:

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-december-6-2019

NC-02: Likely D
NC-06: Likely D
NC-08: Likely R
NC-09: Lean R

Every other seat is either Solid D or Solid R for the party that holds them.

Was this the one who said they put NC-2 and NC-6 as Likely rather than Safe only to keep them on the chart as visible pickups?

No, thats Cook. But Inside may have a similar policy.

[Gracile]

Inside Elections released their initial ratings of NC's new congressional districts:

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-december-6-2019

NC-02: Likely D
NC-06: Likely D
NC-08: Likely R
NC-09: Lean R

Every other seat is either Solid D or Solid R for the party that holds them.

Was this the one who said they put NC-2 and NC-6 as Likely rather than Safe only to keep them on the chart as visible pickups?

No, that was Cook, but I assume IE has a similar policy. Sabato rated both NC-02 and NC-06 as Safe D, though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK. Sure. Kellyanne is probably the closest thing then to a Karl Rove the GOP has right now. I mean, maybe she is at the caliber but she lacks the entire supervillian  vibe that Rove or Cheney had. She's just kind of a shill and a jackass.

I can't fathom what her domestic life is like. I mean her husband has now started dunking her publicly at twitter.

Imagine being gullible enough to believe that. George Conaway is anti-Trump, but the idea that he and his wife are actually feuding is kinda bs tbh.

I don't believe anything but I can assure you that I'd be very embarrassed if my significant other constantly bashed me and my boss at social media.

[Gracile]

RRH Elections updated their House ratings:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/12/07/rrh-elections-december-2019-house-ratings/

Moved in favor of Republicans
CA-21: Tossup from Lean D
CA-25: Tossup from Likely D
CA-50: Likely R from Lean R
IL-12: Safe R from Likely R
IN-1: Likely D from Safe D
MI-1: Safe R from Likely R
NY-17: Likely D from Safe D
NY-27: Likely R from Lean R
NC-3: Safe R from Likely R
NC-9: Likely R from Lean R
NC-13: Safe R from Likely R
WA-10: Likely D from Safe D
WV-2: Safe R from Likely R

Moved in favor of Democrats
CA-8: Likely R from Safe R
CA-24: Safe D from Likely D
IL-6: Likely D from Lean D
MO-2: Lean R from Likely R
NJ-3: Lean D from Tossup
NY-2: Lean R from Likely R
NC-2: Safe D from Lean R
NC-6: Safe D from Safe R
NC-8: Likely R from Safe R