Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at a map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/bfa1ccb0-dd04-4bb2-b8eb-1894a1ecbe7d

CO-01: Clinton+55, Polis+60, D+26 (54% white, 30% Hispanic, 11% black)
CO-02: Clinton+28, Polis+35, D+13
CO-03: Trump+16, Stapleton+8, R+9
CO-04: Trump+20, Stapleton+18, R+11
CO-05: Trump+22, Stapleton+18, R+13
CO-06: Clinton+13, Polis+19, D+4
CO-07: Clinton+9. Polis+16, D+3
CO-08: Trump+3, Polis+2, R+2

In terms of partisanship, the map would be 4 Safe D (technically the 6th and 7th would be like Likely D, but with trends they will be Safe D), 3 Safe R and 1 Lean R/Tossup district.

[Former President tack50]

Another attempt at a fair map, with the identified COI:



CO-01 (Denver): Clinton+44, D+26
CO-02 (Boulder & Fort Collins): Clinton+25, D+11
CO-03 (Western Colorado): Trump+15, R+9
CO-04 (Eastern Colorado): Trump+24, R+11
CO-05 (Colorado Springs): Trump+22, R+13
CO-06 (Arapahoe / Southern Denver Suburbs): Clinton+14, D+5
CO-07 (Jefferson & Douglas / Southwest Denver suburbs): Trump+4, R+5
CO-08 (Broomfield & Adams / Northern Denver suburbs): Clinton+10, D+5

With the 2016 districts this would have been a 4D-3R-1S map; though given trends I imagine the 7th district must be at least Lean D by now

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here is a reworked version of the map I drew earlier, this time taking into account the things Blairite said. You can argue the map this time reflects COIs better, though it does split more counties this time.

Requirement 2 in particular is quite bad, as it forced me into a split of tiny Broomfield county (district 2 was otherwise constructed with full counties). The other 2 requirements I can see where he is coming from though.

Interestingly in terms of partisanship this would be worse for Dems but of course partisanship should not matter in a fair map



CO-01 (Denver): Clinton+51, D+24
CO-02 (Boulder & Fort Collins): Clinton+25, D+11
CO-03 (West Colorado): Trump+14, R+8
CO-04 (East Colorado): Trump+20, R+9
CO-05 (Colorado Springs): Trump+22, R+13
CO-06 (South Denver Suburbs): Trump+11, R+9
CO-07 (West Denver Suburbs): Clinton+8, D+2
CO-08 (East Denver Suburbs & Aurora): Clinton+23, D+12

[Former President tack50]

Here is my take on a "Light Dem gerrymander"; basically the kind of redistricting that could happen if the Colorado commission was somehow seized by a coalition of partisan democrats and RINOs, like it has happened in other states?

Basically this is a partisan map that doesn't go too crazy and tries to keep some COIs at least; although I will admit I probably didn't put enough effort into keeping county borders, so this map, while it looks good, looks less great with county borders on.

Interestingly this does give me a chance to show off the "donut" district from another thread.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c04e1eca-ce14-441d-a9ab-304acd12b08f

Districts 1, 2 and 6 should all be safe D (though district 6, at D+4 in PVI might have been competitive in the past, but it certainly isn't now). Similarly, districts 4 and 5 should both be Safe R (though the Colorado Springs district is trending D, but should still be safe R for now)

District 7 may have been competitive in the past as well (D+2 PVI), and even in 2016 it was not a huge blowout (Clinton+7); but I imagine it must have zoomed left very fast. For the 2018 governor election it voted Polis+14 so

District 8 is basically a Lean D district that is still very much competitive. It was Clinton+1, Polis+6 and D+1 in PVI. Not sure what the trend here is, if one even exists.

Finally district 3 is a half hearted attempt at getting rid of Boebert. You can't fully get rid of her without doing a "proper" gerrymander, so this just gives her as many of the Dem rural ski counties as you can, and then fills up the population by taking the rural parts of Boulder and Larimer, instead of the more Republican southeast part of the state. It's still Likely R, but slightly better than the current district. It even voted for Polis by 200 votes (Trump+8, Polis+0, R+5)

[Former President tack50]

Per Lfromnj's posts and assuming CO will actually get an R gerry, here is my attempt at one, which ends up as a 4R-4D map, though looking around I think Tim's map is a better option



https://davesredistricting.org/join/12a5acbf-3faa-44df-a020-ab9ce8b7bcb8

CO-01: Polis+60, Clinton+75, D+26
CO-02: Polis+42, Clinton+34, D+16
CO-03: Stapleton+10, Trump+19, R+10
CO-04: Stapleton+17, Trump+20, R+10
CO-05: Stapleton+18, Trump+22, R+13
CO-06: Stapleton+12, Trump+15, R+9
CO-07: Polis+18, Clinton+10, D+3
CO-08: Polis+22, Clinton+17, D+6

I also did a version that is slightly cleaner and changes districts 3 and 7, transforming both into swing districts (Polis+7/Trump+3/R+3 and Polis+3/Trump+4/R+3 respectively); though I imagine the GOP would prefer the version with safe districts, especially given CO's hard trend left