Kerry Meme: the gap is closing

[zorkpolitics]

I keep seeing reports that Kerry is closing the gap on Bush (usually after one poll shows Kerry within 5 pts of Bush).

A very nice graph at RealClear provides some data:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

It shows that since the RNC, Bush has held a very constant  6-7 point lead over the last 25 days.
Clearly Kerry has NOT closed the gap at all.

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Throw out the outliers, and Bush is up 3 in the 2 way races


Kerry is up 9 points in the latest Time poll.

[The Vorlon]

Kerry is up 9 points in the latest Time poll.

Kerry is up 9 points in the latest Time poll...

Also, here is the most favorable version to Kerry of all recent polls:

CeeBS +9 LVs
Gallup +8 (LVs)
Ipsos +7 (LVs)
ABC +6 (LVs)
Marist +6 (LVs)
Battleground +5 (LVs)
NBC +4 (LVs)
Time +4 (LVs)
Zogby +3 (LVs)
Fox +2 (LVs)
Rasmussen +2 (LVs)
Democracy Corps (D) TIED

I think this averages to more than +3

[Pollwatch99]

I keep seeing reports that Kerry is closing the gap on Bush (usually after one poll shows Kerry within 5 pts of Bush).

A very nice graph at RealClear provides some data:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

It shows that since the RNC, Bush has held a very constant  6-7 point lead over the last 25 days.
Clearly Kerry has NOT closed the gap at all.

You are correct.  The national Polls are steady at this point.  After debate on Thursday, we will see if this changes.  The poll movement seems to be occuring at the battlegroundstate level and they are moving toward Bush