2024 - A Blank Canvas

[SaintStan86]

Not going to jump the shark here and just let it play out as I go, but while the title may seem like a dead giveaway, let's start first with the 2022 midterms before I go any further...

November 8, 2022
REPUBLICANS WIN CONTROL OF CONGRESS, DEALING FATAL BLOW TO PRESIDENT BIDEN'S AGENDA
Faced with a prolonged failure to gain momentum on President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" agenda, the recent declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic as an "endemic" by The WHO and its ensuing return to the "new (old) normal" with further breakthroughs in therapeutics and testing, increasing resistance to inflation, supply chain and debt issues by a general public now grappling with higher living costs, and an energized Republican voting base both sustained in the American heartland and reinvigorated in suburban areas, Democrats suffered their most staggering defeat in decades if not generations.

The momentum Democrats gained in the suburbs in the face of Trump? Gone.

Whatever goodwill Democrats had in them to reconnect with WWC voters? Gone.

The rising Hispanic tide that would have proven the "demographics is destiny" argument? Gone.

The end result is one of the largest - if not the largest - Republican majorities since the days of Calvin Coolidge. Republicans have largely taken back many of the suburban districts they lost in the 2018 midterms, while holding their own in virtually all of the working-class areas they gained in the Trump era. Democrats, on the other hand, have largely been limited to liberal urban enclaves with diverse populations and large college voter bases, "silk stocking" areas where white liberals dominate the political water cooler, and mostly gerrymandered seats in states where Republicans drew maps to their advantage (and which otherwise would be battlegrounds in more normal configurations).

In the Senate, Republicans gained a net of two seats - defeating incumbent Senators in Nevada, Georgia and New Hampshire, while losing an open seat in Pennsylvania where a famous Republican candidate became the subject of "carpetbagger" allegations while struggling to connect with Trump voters on the "red" - or rather, "black and yellow" - side of the state. Democrats did manage to hang on to competitive seats in Arizona and Colorado, while Republicans held on to seats once thought to be ripe for the other side's taking including Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Iowa, Ohio and, most significant of all, Wisconsin. Despite gaining control, Mitch McConnell effectively steps aside as Senate Minority Leader "for the good of the country and our future", giving the reins to Senate Minority Whip John Thune, who becomes Senate Majority Leader despite crossing Trump over the 2020 result.



Meanwhile in the House, the aforementioned circumstances with regards to the general political mood, as well as a favorable redistricting edge for Republicans, ends up benefiting the GOP which experiences gains on the levels of past "red wave" elections - somewhere between the 1994 "Republican Revolution" and the 2010 "Tea Party" gains, with the somewhat muted gains in comparison to the previous waves largely the result of many of those gains being mostly rural and working-class seats - which are essentially a Republican monopoly at this point. Instead, this "red wave" is the end result of those aforementioned suburban and swing seats largely breaking for the GOP in improvements of 6 to as many as 18 points compared to 2020, not unlike the wave that elected Gov. Glenn Youngkin in Virginia and almost elected Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey. A sizable number of seats that voted for Biden in 2020, for instance, are now held by Republicans, while the number of Democrats in Trump districts has been reduced to a number so negligible one could count within the fingers of just one hand.

Between the near-universal opposition to Biden on the Republican side, sizable but lukewarm support for Biden on the Democratic side, and an independent electorate that largely fled Biden after fleeing Trump in past elections, Biden finds himself staring at history as one of America's most unremarkable presidents. Already well advanced in age, often the subject of many a 25th amendment discussion by conservative thought leaders and activists, and viewed pejoratively as a "third term of Barack Obama", despite the White House's insistence that Biden would be seeking reelection in 2024, the first President from the First State is now looking at this possibility from a more sobering perspective.

Likewise, Donald Trump is the subject of speculation just as intense - the possibility of "will he or won't he?" when it comes to 2024. Trump has hinted that he will be running to "run for reelection" in 2024 - acting as if he was never defeated. Despite mounting tax controversies (largely political moves on the part of outspoken New York Attorney General Tish James and ambitious liberal prosecutors and AGs) and similar concerns about his age and 25th amendment-related issues, Trump himself has not hinted he won't run...and may choose to step aside so long as the Republican field more than satisfies his political palate. After all, if the field did satisfy him enough in 2016, that golden escalator ride may or may not have happened.

It's going to get very interesting here...stay tuned!

(details of congressional victories from 2022 forthcoming...)

[SaintStan86]

Rather interesting replies from across the board, especially with regards to Arizona.

Anyway, here's the next part of the introduction...the actual details with regards to the midterms, starting with the Senate from the safe seats on to the big prizes:

SAFE

ALABAMA
An era comes to an end in the Heart of Dixie as Richard Shelby retires. The last Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama (not counting Doug Jones' 2017 fluke victory) before his switch to the GOP following the 1994 election, Shelby had been reckoned as a more establishmentarian Republican. Conservative Republican congressman Mo Brooks wins a fiercely competitive runoff against Shelby's endorsed challenger (and former Chief of Staff) Katie Britt and proceeds to defeat his Democratic challenger, Alabama Democratic Party chairman Christopher England, by a wide margin, despite Shelby largely staying out of the spotlight during the general election.

ARKANSAS
It may feel like the starting words to an Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zeros song, but Arkansas actually does come next and fast...Republican incumbent John Boozman crosses 60 percent in his reelection bid against Democratic challenger Dan Whitfield.

CALIFORNIA
After being appointed to Vice President Kamala Harris's old seat, incumbent Democrat Alex Padilla wins a full term. Republicans do actually field a general election candidate this time in James Bradley, something that didn't happen in 2016 and 2018, but he is no match for Padilla who ultimately wins just over 60 percent of the vote in a race that pales in comparison to the gubernatorial one.

CONNECTICUT
Remember that Vietnam War draft dodging controversy? That's all in the past, as incumbent Democrat Richard Blumenthal easily wins a third term over a nominal Republican challenger.

HAWAII
Incumbent Brian Schatz wins an easy reelection for the Democrats in one of the most reliably Democratic states.

IDAHO
Republican incumbent Mike Crapo is one of the earliest calls on Election Night, easily winning a fifth term with his only notable press over the course of two years being his endorsement from Donald Trump, of all persons.

ILLINOIS
Once upon a time, the Land of Lincoln was a swing state where Tammy Duckworth narrowly beat her Republican incumbent challenger six years prior. This time, she wins a second term with just under 60 percent against Republican former State Senator Bill Brady, who once served as his party's gubernatorial nominee in 2010.

KANSAS
Two-term Republican Jerry Moran wins a third term over Democratic former Kansas City mayor and United Methodist Church pastor Mark Holland with little difficulty.

KENTUCKY
If Rand Paul's dream of a Constitutional amendment on term limits finally became reality, he wouldn't be doing this again. But until then, Paul runs for a third term anyway and easily defeats former state representative Charles Booker with over 60 percent of the vote.

LOUISIANA
Louisiana's famous jungle primary is no match for John Neely Kennedy, who easily wins a second term without being forced into a Christmastime runoff. Naval reservist Luke Mixon gets sizable attention from Democratic and liberal circles with over 35 percent of the vote in the primary, but the race is already over with Kennedy gaining an absolute majority.

MARYLAND
What Senate election? Democrat Chris Van Hollen easily wins a second term against a nominal Republican opponent.

NEW YORK
At least Chuck Schumer has a job to come home to, even if relegated to the "purgatory" of Senate Minority Leader. He easily wins reelection a nominal Republican opponent despite aggressive efforts to recruit a more credible challenger.

NORTH DAKOTA
Incumbent John Hoeven, one of the more moderate Republicans in the Senate, easily wins a third term over his Democratic challenger, businessman Michael Steele (NOT the former RNC Chairman).

OKLAHOMA
After beating back a fierce challenge from Big Lie diehard Jackson Lahmeyer, incumbent Republican James Lankford romps to victory over a Democratic "sacrificial lamb".

OREGON
In one of the easiest reelections of the night, longtime Democrat Ron Wyden wins reelection to a fifth term over a nominal Republican challenger.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Republican Tim Scott states his 2022 re-election will be his last, and he earns it quite handsomely, defeating Charleston-area State Representative Krystle Matthews by a big margin in only the third all-Black statewide election in the Palmetto State's history.

SOUTH DAKOTA
Republican John Thune vacillates between running for reelection to a fourth term against his wife's wishes and choosing to retire instead. Ultimately, sensing the opportunity to become Senate Majority Leader, Thune decides to chase history and run for re-election.

UTAH
Despite criticism from some circles over some of his immigration policy work, conservative Republican stalwart Mike Lee easily clears his primary's slate and eventually defeats a nominal Democrat and independent "Never Trump" extraordinaire Evan McMullin to win a third term to the world's most exclusive club. McMullin promises to run again in 2024, hoping to benefit on an "expectedly nasty" Republican primary in that cycle.

VERMONT
Longtime Democrat and Batman enthusiast Patrick Leahy is hanging up his cape. His near-doppleganger successor is Congressman Peter Welch who has the easiest primary and general election campaign of any candidate in an open seat, defeating a nominal Republican challenger and perennial pro-marijuana cheerleader Cris Ericson.

FAVORS

FLORIDA
Once thought to be a top battleground race in a perennial, if conservative-leaning, swing state, Republican Marco Rubio ultimately beats back criticism from some clowns over "broken term limit pledges" and other jokers for "not being conservative or pro-Trump enough" (never mind that Trump endorses him after all) to win a third term over three-term Democratic Congresswoman Val Demings, even exceeding the vote totals of his gubernatorial counterpart.

INDIANA
Incumbent Republican Todd Young is reelected to a second term despite a late-rising campaign from Democratic Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott, who already is being sought out by national Democrats for the upcoming 2024 gubernatorial election despite losing to Young by approximately 15-20 points in what has become a deeply red state in the Trump era.

IOWA
89-year old incumbent Chuck Grassley has become an elder statesmen amongst Republicans in Washington, and goes on to win an eighth term despite an earnest challenge from 33-year old Democratic former Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer, who was barely out of diapers when Grassley voted to confirm Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court in 1991.

WASHINGTON
The "mom in tennis shoes" aims for a sixth term, and earns it as Patty Murray is returned to the Senate with a sizable win over Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley. The veterans' advocate and motivational speaker Smiley does manage to hold Murray to just over 55 percent in a perennially blue state, despite hailing from the lesser populated Tri-Cities region, and fueling speculation that Washington could be at least somewhat competitive in 2024.

LEANS

ALASKA
Longtime Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski was forced into a four-way Battle Royale, made possible by Alaska's new blanket primary and ranked-choice general elections. The Alaska GOP, along with Donald Trump and former Governor Sarah Palin, coalesced behind challenger Kelly Tshibaka, while Democrats opted not to run a challenger and instead endorsed independent challenger Al Gross (who challenged Alaska's other Senator, Dan Sullivan, in 2020) and the uber-nationalist Alaskan Independence Party re-ran their 2020 challenger, John Howe. The combination of unified Democratic support for Gross and large Republican support for Tshibaka ultimately dooms Murkowski who finished third in overall polling (20 percent versus Tshibaka's 40 percent and Gross's 34 percent). Tshibaka still won half of Murkowski's remaining votes plus almost all of Howe's, sealing her victory over Gross by single digits.

ARIZONA
The bitter infeuding over 2020 continues to cloud Arizona Republicans well into 2022 as Attorney General Mark Brnovich easily wins a nasty primary against Trump-aligned and Tucker Carlson-backed venture capitalist Blake Masters who drew attention for accusing Brnovich (who at times appeared on Carlson's Fox News show) of "simply wanting to get into Tucker Carlson's pants". Indifference from some stray Trump supporters, as well as a generally moderate persona in spite of a relatively liberal voting record and recognition from his wife being none other than Gabby Giffords, ultimately benefits Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly who wins a full term by a narrow margin with help from a small amount of Republicans who are either opposed to Trump, viewed Brnovich as "not helping Trump enough" or were former Pinto Democrats who felt Kelly spoke more to their concerns depending on the person.

COLORADO
Michael Bennet has to be the luckiest man on earth. The two-term Democrat had close reelections in 2010 and 2016, but ultimately prevailed both times. Retired Olympic athlete and USAF major Eli Bremer turns this race into a sleeper contest towards the homestretch, but Bennet once again prevails with his victory margins in suburban Denver's Arapahoe and Jefferson counties matching his statewide ones.

GEORGIA
After the stunning defeat of Kelly Loeffler by Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock nearly two years prior, Republicans (at least in this race) manage to regroup and united behind college football legend and former USFL & NFL player Herschel Walker, whose greatest claim to fame in the latter was aiding in the rebuilding of the Dallas Cowboys after his trade to the Minnesota Vikings in 1989. Despite some early bumps on the road, Walker ultimately prevails narrowly by gaining ground in metro Atlanta, slightly winning suburban Atlanta's Cobb County and north Fulton County, while losing Gwinnett County by single digits and winning by blockbuster margins across Atlanta's fast-growing outer northern suburbs (Woodstock, Cumming, etc.) - all while dominating the rest of the state save for Southwest Georgia.

MISSOURI
The race to succeed retiring Republican Roy Blunt becomes a sleeper as Republican former Governor Eric Greitens prevails despite fierce opposition from Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Representatives Vicky Hartzler and Billy Long. Lucas Kunce gains enough support from some suburban voters around St. Louis and Kansas City and rural voters across the "Missou-RAH" of the state, but Missouri's strong Republican bent as of late is enough for Greitens to prevail the victor.

NEVADA
After succeeding Harry Reid in 2016, Catherine Cortez Masto enters a cycle without a Trump on the ballot and with a climate more like 2010. The Republicans nominate former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, four years removed from a failed (albeit close) gubernatorial bid. Despite a vigorous reelection campaign, Cortez Masto ultimately falls to Laxalt who reclaims the Senate seat once held by his late grandfather Paul Laxalt - the famous "first friend" of Ronald Reagan.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
While initially thought to have become less competitive after each of the GOP's top three dream candidates - former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte, former Massachusetts U.S. Senator Scott Brown and popular Governor Chris Sununu - decided against challenging first-term Democrat Maggie Hassan (who defeated Ayotte in 2016), the race nonetheless became competitive as national Republicans continued to see their fortunes increase in the run up to the midterms. After emerging out of a fiercely competitive primary, former Trump administration official Rich Ashooh defeats former U.S. Army brigadier general Don Bolduc and former Congressman Frank Guinta (among other candidates), to win the Republican nomination with just weeks to go. Fortunately, the political winds - and the previously fractious NHGOP as a whole - come together in time for Ashooh to eventually defeat Hassan by a narrow margin. (NOTE: This is definitely subject to change depending on what actually does happen in the run up to the expected September 2022 primaries in New Hampshire, famously first in presidential primaries but last in congressional ones, but I am going to predict that Republicans will gain this seat at this moment.)

NORTH CAROLINA
The race to succeed retiring Republican Richard Burr, already castoff by Trump allies after his vote to convict the former President over January 6th, turned in the former President's favor after conservative Congressman Ted Budd won Trump's endorsement and made further gains after his chief conservative rival, former Congressman Mark Walker (who claimed to have won a straw poll at the NCGOP convention when Trump made his pick known) bowed out and decided to run for an open congressional seat in his home Piedmont Triad base instead. This show of unity amongst conservatives became enough for Budd to overcome his chief rival, former Governor Pat McCrory, whose endorsement from Budd (and lingering aftereffects from his infamous decision to sign legislation eliminating anti-discrimination laws for LGBTQ+ citizens) came back to haunt McCrory. Budd then went on to face a competitive general election against former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, ultimately winning the open Senate seat by 5 points.

OHIO
The closeness of this race to succeed retiring establishment Republican Rob Portman came down to two factors: an exceptionally crowded Republican primary where multiple high-profile candidates battled each other in a fight to win over conservatives, various Trump administration officials and Trump himself, and a rather united Democratic front that nominated Congressman Tim Ryan, a former high school quarterback turned lawyer and one-time presidential candidate who was as "Ohio as they come". Nonetheless, the eventual Republican nominee, former State Treasurer two-time former Senate candidate Josh Mandel, manages to unify his party in time to defeat Ryan by a seven-point margin, beating polls that predicted a victory within the margin of error.

WISCONSIN
After vacillating between reelection and retirement to honor his two-term pledge, Ron Johnson ultimately decides to seek a third term, with the promise that this will be his last term. While charges of "broken promises" erupt from Democrats already livid over Johnson's defense of Trump and statements regarding January 6th, Johnson retorts by pointing out that his predecessor Russ Feingold (who Johnson defeated in 2010 and beat again in 2016) wasn't any different in regards to campaign promises. Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who aimed to become Wisconsin's first Black U.S. Senator, and this triggers a fiercely competitive general election that becomes the most expensive Senate race in Wisconsin history. Ultimately, the national political winds won out as Johnson's strong performance across northern and central Wisconsin, only overshadowed by his equally strong if not stronger performance in the suburban WOW counties surrounding Milwaukee, overcomes Barnes' advantages in Milwaukee and around the deeply liberal Madison area.

Last, but definitely not least...THE MOTHER OF ALL SENATE RACES:

PENNSYLVANIA
The race to succeed Trump convicteé Pat Toomey is the most expensive and explosive Senate race in the country by far. The GOP race to replace Toomey originally had Army veteran and author Sean Parnell in front with Trump's endorsement to boot, only to see his candidacy implode after it was revealed that Parnell abused his wife and eventually lost custody of his children. Parnell's departure paved the way for Dr. Mehmet Oz, host of The Dr. Oz Show, to step in and eventually win the Republican nomination. The Democratic nominee is the state's gritty, 6-foot-9, bald and tattooed Lieutenant Governor, John Fetterman. Dr. Oz manages to salvage the Republicans' efforts with strong name recognition (sorely needed after Parnell's departure) and fundraising (sorely needed anyway as Parnell himself struggled to fundraise before the truth about his private life came out), but the "carpetbagger" allegations from Fetterman's camp (and endless criticism of Oz's well-documented medical claims, some of it coming from a million-dollar ad buy by the friendly reefers at NORML) prove too much for Oz to overcome. Fetterman ends up narrowly picking up the seat for the Democrats; while Oz is able to win Bucks and Chester counties in the Philadelphia suburbs, he underperforms Trump in the western part of the state where some Trump backers either stayed home, undervoted or even thought Fetterman was more to their liking inside and out than the buttoned-down Oz. Which leads some to speculate "If only Sean Parnell hadn't beaten his wife..." Following the election, NORML promises to get more active in Hill elections with the eventual goal of "ending the war on drugs".

That's the Senate. Next part of my preview will focus on the House and then the Governors...

[SaintStan86]

Meanwhile, in the House (Part 1, definitely subject to change with some details since redistricting also played a huge role (and in some cases will in the TL))...

ALABAMA
Asides from Republican Madison County Commissioner Dale Strong succeeding newly minted Sen. Mo Brooks in the Huntsville-based 5th, the rest of the 6-1 Republican delegation - and their districts' geopolitics - remains unchanged.
6 Republicans, 1 Democrat

ALASKA
89-year old Republican Don Young is reelected to his 26th term by a favorable margin.
7 Republicans, 1 Democrat

ARIZONA
Arizona already saw changes (as it does with every Census) with its commission-drawn maps in the midterms, with Republicans being the ultimate beneficiary. After being drawn in with Democrat Tom O'Halleran in the new Flagstaff-to-Casa Grande, GOP-favored 2nd, Republican Paul Gosar moves to the arch-conservative 9th that connects western Arizona to western Maricopa County. It still doesn't save O'Halleran as he loses to Republican State Rep. Walt Blackman, who becomes Arizona's first Black Republican congressman.

Around Phoenix, two former Phoenix Suns executives, Democrat Adam Metzendorf and Republican Tanya Wheeless, wage strong challenges to incumbents David Schweikert in the north Phoenix & Scottsdale-centric 1st and Greg Stanton in the evenly competitive, southeast suburban Phoenix-based 4th. While Schweikert, two years removed from an ethical lapse and close race, ultimately defeats Metzendorf, Stanton narrowly loses to Wheeless in a district made more Republican by the independent commission, leaving Ruben Gallego as the lone Democrat predominantly serving the Valley.

Lastly, Republicans flip retiring Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick's suburban Tucson 6th, with Juan Ciscomani emerging out of a crowded field to defeat former State Senator Kirsten Engel, while one of the previous Dem challengers, State Rep. Daniel Hernandez (known famously for saving Gabby Giffords' life after her near-fatal assassination attempt) switches to the favorably Democratic 7th where he succeeds retiring Rep. Raul Grijalva.
14 Republicans, 3 Democrats (+3 GOP)

ARKANSAS
Nothing to see here. All of the four Republican incumbents here run for reelection and win without much competition.
18 Republicans, 3 Democrats (+3 GOP)

CALIFORNIA
With a commission calling the shots, lots of geographic changes came here, but there were changes abound within the delegation, now one person short because of California's stagnant growth. Around San Francisco, there is a notable retirement, but not the one everyone expected as San Francisco ex-Speaker Nancy Pelosi is easily reelected in the newly-renumbered 11th. Instead, San Mateo-based Democrat Jackie Speier retires and is succeeded by State Assemblyman Kevin Mullin in the 15th. The rest of the Bay Area's all-Democrat delegation, along with Sacramento-based Doris Matsui, win reelection by comfortable margins, while north Sacramento Democrat Ami Bera does win by a surprisingly close margin against former Clinton aide-turned-foe Buzz Patterson.

Meanwhile, in the Central Valley, newly elected Republican Elizabeth Heng (who succeeds Devin Nunes in a special election after the latter left to run Trump's new media venture), effectively swaps districts with Democrat Jim Costa and win their respective reelections in the 5th and 21st districts. Nonetheless, the region shifts towards the GOP with incumbent David Valadao winning a tough race in the Hanford-based 22nd against State Assemblyman Rudy Salas, former Trump NSC official Ricky Gill defeating incumbent Josh Harder in the Modesto-based 13th, and longtime Democrat Jerry McNerney losing to San Joaquin Supervisor (and one-time coach to Mike Tyson) Tom Patti in the Stockton-based 9th. Of course, newly elected Speaker Kevin McCarthy easily wins reelection in his Bakersfield-based 20th, but since his district is the most Republican in California that was a given.

The biggest shifts, however, happen in Southern California as Republicans (re)bulld on their gains in the Los Angeles area from 2020, mostly seats they lost in the 2018 "blue wave". In Orange County, freshman Korean-American Republicans Young Kim and Michelle Steel are returned to Congress in the 40th and 45th districts, and are joined by another GOP pickup in Brian Maryott who defeats Democratic incumbent Mike Levin in the OC-to-north coastal San Diego County-based 49th, and also joining three incumbent Democrats as well as Republican Darrell Issa in representing San Diego County. Democrats did manage to hold on to the 47th in coastal Orange County and Irvine, but only because of a divided Republican primary field that resulted in an all-Democrat runoff in which cash-flush incumbent and progressive darling Katie Porter defeated vastly underfunded moderate former Congressman (and ex-Republican) Harley Rouda.

Another Republican who won in 2020, Mike Garcia, also wins reelection in his north LA County-based 27th, winning another rematch with previous opponent and former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith. Meanwhile, in the favorably Democratic 26th in Ventura County, incumbent Democrat Julia Brownley loses to Republican attorney and former federal prosecutor Matt Jacobs who benefits from the addition of Simi Valley (home to the Reagan Presidential Library) to the district as well as a strong fundraising haul. Finally, towards the Inland Empire, only Democrat Raul Ruiz has a competitive fight, eventually winning his Palm Springs-based 25th against Republican nominee Brian Hawkins by a small margin, with the other incumbents from that region being reelected with little in the way of a fight.

The rest of the changes within the Southland are due to departures. Venerable Democrats Lucille Roybal-Allard and Alan Lowenthal both retire after being drawn together into a new 42nd that connects Long Beach to heavily Hispanic inner suburbs directly east of Los Angeles; Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia is elected to succeed both incumbents. Meanwhile, another venerable Democrat in Grace Napolitano decides to retire, with former State Senator and 2018 lieutenant governor nominee Ed Hernández replacing her. And in the westside Los Angeles-based 37th district, State Senator Sydney Kamlager is elected to succeed newly elected Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. While Republicans still remain a deep minority in California, on a House level this is their best showing in California since the 2010 election.
40 Democrats, 33 Republicans (+7 GOP)

COLORADO
As California loses a seat, Colorado gains one within the ranks of its own independently-drawn commission. That seat, the new 8th in Denver's northern suburbs, becomes the most expensive congressional race in Colorado history with Republican State Senator Kevin Priola and Democratic State Representative Yadira Caraveo battling for the new seat, which some view as an opportunity district for metro Denver's Hispanic voters that make up a large portion of the district's share of Adams County. Ultimately, the district's slight Republican tilt (and favorable national winds for the GOP) result in a narrow win for the moderate Priola. Those same trends also contributed to the surprise defeat of Democratic incumbent Ed Perlmutter, whose Jefferson County-centric seat expanded southward into exurban and rural Republican territory that strongly favored Trumpian Republican challenger Laurel Imer, as well as a surprisingly close reelection for Jason Crow against Republican Army veteran Trip Rickerson in a 6th district connecting all but a deep blue western slice of Aurora to swingy southern Arapahoe County. The rest of the state's now 5-3 GOP delegation remains unchanged, including longtime Denver Democrat Diana DeGette, who fended off progressive insurgent Neal Walia in her primary for the 1st, and hard-right darling Lauren Boebert, who won a second term in the western-based 3rd against Democratic social worker Sol Sandoval.
43 Democrats, 38 Republicans (+9 GOP)

CONNECTICUT
A nasty redistricting dispute in Connecticut ultimately results in the state Supreme Court leaving the drawing of the state's five districts - all held by Democrats - to a master. The end result is a map where the GOP gains two prime opportunities in the eastern-based 2nd and Litchfield County-centric 5th, while making Jim Himes' Fairfield County-based 4th a tad more Republican but still favorable to his party. Despite failing to recruit a credible challenger to Richard Blumenthal in the Senate race, Republicans ultimately succeed in defeating Democrats Joe Courtney (2nd) and Jahana Hayes (5th) with respective challengers Mike France and George Logan, while Republican attorney and physician Michael Goldstein held Himes to single digits in the 4th.
46 Democrats, 40 Republicans (+11 GOP)

DELAWARE
Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester manages to win by a high single-digit margin in Joe Biden's home district. Not that it mattered.
47 Democrats, 40 Republicans (+11 GOP)

FLORIDA
Florida gains a new seat as the state legislature settles on a competitive, albeit Republican-slanted, map that turns the Tampa Bay area into a true congressional battleground, combining the state Senate's geographically compact maps with the state House's numbering scheme. In particular, virtually all of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties now sit almost entirely in battleground districts between the St. Petersburg-based 13th (open due to Charlie Crist running once again for Governor), the Tampa and north Hillsborough-based 14th (held by Democrat Kathy Castor) and the newly-created 15th in east suburban Hillsborough. All matters aside, with relatively popular Republican incumbents at the top of the ticket in Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis, the night ends up being a disaster for Democrats, as the party is shut out of Florida's largest media market for the first time in its history with Crist's seat going to Republican Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna, Castor's narrow defeat by retired Republican Green Beret Jay Collins, and the open 15th going to Republican State Rep. Mike Beltran.

Outside of Tampa Bay, the Democrats' prospects don't get any better. Stephanie Murphy's decision to retire robs the party of one of its rising stars, and ultimately her north suburban Orlando district (the 7th) flips to Republican businessman Cory Mills who catches a break after his closest GOP challenger, conservative State Rep. Anthony Sabatini, bolts westward to the Villages-based 11th where six-term Republican Daniel Webster retires; asides from a fierce challenge from alt-right blogger Laura Loomer, Sabatini wins the nomination and the general with little difficulty. Democrats did manage to hang on to their other two seats in central Florida, as Democrats Darren Soto (9th) and Randolph Bracy (10th, replacing U.S. Senate nominee Val Demings) win their reelections by favorable margins.

Even favorably Democratic south Florida isn't immune from the national Republican wave: not only do Democrats fail to defeat Republican freshmen Maria Elvira Salazar (27th) and Carlos Giménez (28th) in Miami, but in a shocking upset Ted Deutch loses reelection in his Boca Raton-based 23rd (stretching southward to Fort Lauderdale, westward to Parkland, and northward to Palm Beach) to nominal (and well-funded) Republican challenger Carla Spalding who moves northward from the more Democratic 25th of Debbie Wasserman Schultz to challenge Deutch.

But going on a tangent, how did Deutch's favorably Democratic seat end up competitive enough for him to fall? The seat was made more competitive as the Florida Legislature restricted the new 20th - previously connecting heavily Democratic Black and Hispanic areas in Palm Beach and Broward counties - to the latter county, with its existing tentacle in Margate, Lauderhill and majority Black sections of Fort Lauderdale joined by a new one that contained Miramar - home to newly elected Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who won a special election in the previous 20th after the late Alcee Hastings died of cancer. That election was essentially a cakewalk as the 20th voted overwhelmingly for Biden, even though the primary result itself - a mere five (!) votes over Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness - wasn't. (Even more shocking, this matter became moot as Holness (who actually resided in the original Broward tentacle of the old 20th) defeated Cherfilus-McCormick in the actual primary for the new 20th.)

And yes, despite apparent allegations that will further explode in this TL, Republican Matt Gaetz is reelected, with nonpartisan candidate Rebekah Jones, famous for her COVID whistleblower gaslighting and some similar shenanigans, outpolling her Democratic challenger while also holding Gaetz just over 50 percent. In the end, Republicans now hold a 3-1 advantage in Florida's congressional delegation.
61 Republicans, 54 Democrats (+16 GOP)
UPDATE (12/31/21) Webster is in fact running for reelection. Sabatini ultimately does run in the 7th but narrowly loses to Mills despite overt support from some Trump loyalists as his QAnon past + the fact that he moved into the district bite him. Republicans do unite to win the seat with Mills. Webster still wins reelection very easily.

GEORGIA
With Republicans in charge of Georgia's entire redistricting process after Biden wins their state, a reshuffling of the Democrats' two suburban Atlanta pickups resulted in freshman Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux being pitted against fellow incumbent Lucy McBath in the new 7th that covers all but the most Republican portions of now-favorably Democratic Gwinnett County. This move came after McBath's 6th District was altered to exclude her district's share of DeKalb County and some Democratic-leaning portions of north Fulton, while pushing the district northward into exurban Forsyth County all the way to Dawsonville. The new 7th's sizable Black vote, as well as the fact that Bourdeaux herself was redistricted out of the 7th, ultimately works to McBath's benefit as she narrowly defeats Bourdeaux and then goes on to defeat Republican former State Senator Mary West in a close race.

Meanwhile, the new, Republican-friendly 6th is one of the first Democratic seats to flip on Election Night, as Republican ER physician Rich McCormick (who narrowly lost the 7th to Bourdeaux in 2020) takes the seat back for the GOP against a lesser-known Democratic opponent. At the end of the night, Democrats are restricted to just four (!) seats in metro Atlanta, as the southwest-based 2nd District of longtime Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop falls in a surprise to firefighter and Dougherty County (Albany) GOP Chairman Tracy Taylor. The only other notable races in the Peach State are the GOP primary for Northwest Georgia's 14th District, where Marjorie Taylor Greene manages to win a competitive Republican primary and then win an easy reelection in her 4-1 Trump district despite staunch opposition from more establishmentarian Republicans, and the GOP Primary in the Athens-based 10th, where trucking company executive Mike Collins emerged out of a crowded, competitive field that included former Congressman Paul Broun to succeed newly elected Georgia Secretary of State Jody Hice.
71 Republicans, 58 Democrats (+18 GOP)

HAWAII
Nothing to see here. Hawaii's two Democratic incumbents both run for reelection and win easily in equally drawn districts that strongly favor them.
71 Republicans, 60 Democrats (+17 GOP)

IDAHO
Ditto. Except Republicans are the beneficiary here.
73 Republicans, 60 Democrats (+17 GOP)

(continue to House, Part 2...)

[SaintStan86]

Continuing with the House (Part 2, all subject to change)...

ILLINOIS
Springfield's Democratic machine attempted to wield its power even further in the newest redistricting by restricting Republicans to three fail-safe rural Republican seats in downstate Illinois, with the intent of locking in a "permanent Democratic supermajority" in the Land of Lincoln. Of the state's five remaining Republicans, only one - Rodney Davis - initially stood alone amongst his GOP colleagues and is easily reelected in a new 15th district that connects suburban and rural areas around Springfield and Champaign to the Quincy area, though fellow Republican Darin LaHood would also avoid a primary challenge in the northern-based 16th (covering suburbs of Peoria, Bloomington and Rockford as well as exurban Chicago's Grundy County) after "Never Trump" Republican Adam Kinzinger decides to retire from Congress to potentially pursue another office. Meanwhile, in the southern Illinois-based 12th, conservative freshman Mary Miller defeats the more established Mike Bost and goes on to win a second term with ease.

None of the three are satisfied as their districts are severely gerrymandered with no urban cores - all of which were siphoned off to gerrymandered strips in the 13th and 17th districts. The former, stretching from the core cities of the central Illinois TV market (Champaign, Springfield and Decatur) to the Metro East suburbs of St. Louis, eventually flips Democratic for former OMB official Nikki Budzinski, while the latter (connecting the cities outside Chicago whose suburbs are in LaHood's new seat) does end up going Republican anyway as retiring Democrat Cheri Bustos is succeeded by her 2020 Republican challenger, Esther Joy King who defeats former TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen by a narrow margin.

However, the Democrats' big gamble to gain an upper hand by attempting to further disenfranchise Republicans in the Chicago suburbs would ultimately backfire, especially in districts not deeply entrenched into Chicago, as the combination of a national trend towards congressional Republicans, the absence of Donald Trump on the ballot, and persistent anger over the effects of Gov. J.B. Pritzker's COVID mandates on schools and businesses in the Chicago suburbs all collided to create headaches for Democrats as 2022 rolled on. Three Democrats - including one who defeated another incumbent in the primary - ended up losing reelection: Lauren Underwood (who lost the Joliet/Ottawa-based 14th to Jack Lombardi), Bill Foster (who lost the Naperville/McHenry-based 11th to Catalina Lauf), and freshman Marie Newman (who defeated fellow incumbent Sean Casten in the primary before losing the Orland Park/DuPage-based 6th to Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau in the general).

Elsewhere in the region, two other suburban Chicago Democrats, Raja Krishnamoorthi in the Elgin/Schaumburg-based 8th and Brad Schneider in the Waukegan/Northbrook-based 10th, do manage to win reelection but only by single digits in districts surrounded by more conservative suburbs lost in heavily Democratic Chicago districts represented by white liberals Mike Quigley (5th) and Jan Schakowsky (9th) and Hispanics Chuy Garcia (4th) and newly elected Delia Ramirez (3rd). Lastly, amongst Chicago's three Black Democrats only Robin Kelly (2nd, now stretching as far south as Danville (!) in central Illinois) returns, while Bobby Rush (1st) retires and is replaced by Chicago alderwoman Sophia King (a close ally of the Obamas) and Danny K. Davis loses to freshman "Squad" member Kina Collins.

However, this map is not necessarily final...as potential court rulings could result in a more "normal" set of districts...
80 Republicans, 70 Democrats (+20 GOP)

INDIANA
Other than a surprisingly close reelection for freshman Democrat Frank Mrvan in the northwest Indiana-based 1st, the state's entire congressional delegation stands virtually unchanged save for Victoria Spartz's 5th shedding largely Democratic north Indianapolis and that city's more Republican southern neighborhoods being moved into Greg Pence's 6th.
87 Republicans, 72 Democrats (+20 GOP)

IOWA
Yes, this map is as compact as Iowa's districts are always meant to be, but even so Republicans end up sweeping the state as Cindy Axne loses her reelection bid to State Senator Zach Nunn in the Des Moines-based 3rd. Amongst the state's three incumbent Republican reps, Mariannette Miller-Meeks - two years removed from a razor-thin victory in an open seat - defeats State Representative Christina Bohannan to win a second term in the new 1st, as does fellow freshman Rep. Ashley Hinson in the new 2nd over State Senator Liz Mathis (who ironically worked as a news anchor at the same station Hinson also anchored at before running for Congress). Lastly, Randy Feenstra easily wins a second term in the western-based 4th, which despite including the college town of Ames is considerably more Republican than the other three districts. (NOTE: Expect all four incumbents to play a central role in the Iowa caucuses in this TL.)
91 Republicans, 72 Democrats (+21 GOP)

KANSAS
Despite the best efforts of more moderate Republicans and the state's Democratic governor to shore up her Kansas City district, Sharice Davids loses a rematch with 2020 opponent and former Kansas GOP Chairwoman Amanda Adkins, returning Republicans to full control of the state's congressional delegation.
95 Republicans, 72 Democrats (+22 GOP)

KENTUCKY
With the exception of retiring Democrat John Yarmuth, who is succeeded by fellow Democrat and State Senator Morgan McGarvey after the latter won a fierce Democratic primary against State Representative Attica Scott in the Louisville-based 3rd (and despite a vigorous campaign from the GOP who), all of the state's incumbents were returned to Congress.
100 Republicans, 73 Democrats (+22 GOP)

LOUISIANA
Nothing has changed with all six incumbents re-elected. Still with the lone Democratic seat still connecting most of New Orleans to Baton Rouge. Still with the other five districts heavily Republican. Still the same ole jungle primary in November.
105 Republicans, 74 Democrats (+22 GOP)

MAINE
While Chellie Pingree is easily reelected in the Portland-based 1st, a more moderate voting record still isn't enough for Jared Golden in the Bangor-based 2nd, where he loses reelection to the man he defeated in 2018, former Congressman Bruce Poliquin.
106 Republicans, 75 Democrats (+23 GOP)

MARYLAND
Despite aggressive attempts by Democrats (as well as their nominee in the Eastern Shore and suburban Baltimore-based 1st, Heather Mizeur) to force a more competitive race, Republican incumbent Andy Harris wins a seventh term to Congress. Democrats sweep the rest of the congressional races, but Dutch Ruppersberger (2nd, east suburban Baltimore) and David Trone (6th, western MD to Potomac) win by close margins. As is the case with Illinois, this map is also being targeted in legal proceedings, with a certain high-profile Maryland Republican leading the charge against the new map in court. There is also a new member as former Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey is elected to the Prince George's-based 4th, succeeding Anthony Brown who is elected the state's new Attorney General.
107 Republicans, 82 Democrats (+23 GOP)

MASSACHUSETTS
All of the Bay State's nine incumbent Democrats run for reelection, and all end up winning.
107 Republicans, 91 Democrats (+23 GOP)

MICHIGAN
In the midst of an explosive scandal involving the new independent redistricting commission that was tasked with drawing new congressional and legislative maps for Michigan (minus one congressional seat lost via the Census) only to become embroiled in controversy over missed deadlines and memos kept secret from the Michigan media, the Michigan Supreme Court ends up trashing the commission's tainted maps and instead draws up a new map - loosely based on the ill-fated commission's "Chestnut" proposal - to be used at least for the 2022 cycle.

When mixed together with a fiercely competitive gubernatorial race and predictably harsh after-effects of the state's aggressive COVID response, the result ends up favoring the GOP. While Detroit-area Democrats Debbie Dingell, Brenda Lawrence and Rashida Tlaib easily win reelection in their respective 6th (Ann Arbor to Dearborn, formerly the 12th), 12th (west Detroit and Southfield, formerly the 14th) and 13th (still downtown Detroit to Detroit Metro Airport in Romulus) districts, Haley Stevens' own bid for a third term in the Oakland County-based 11th became perilous after the final map swapped a heavily Democratic portion of southeast Oakland County to Andy Levin's south Macomb-based 10th (which also adds the Grosse Pointes from the Chestnut's 13th) in favor of Republican-oriented Rochester Hills just north of Troy. Both Stevens and Levin (the latter of whom initially had a more Republican seat) end up having equally competitive races against their 2020 opponents, with the former losing to Eric Esshaki and the latter narrowly losing a close rematch against Charles Langworthy. Stevens' overtly optimistic opinion about the economy under Biden - a sentiment that was widely mocked by Republicans in campaign ads - also did not help.

Meanwhile, outside of Metro Detroit, freshman newcomer Peter Meijer and venerable incumbent Fred Upton's votes to impeach Trump over January 6th come back to haunt both Republicans as Meijer loses renomination to former Trump HUD official John Gibbs in the Grand Rapids-based 3rd (where another Republican incumbent, Bill Huizenga, retired after his Muskegon-based 2nd district was eliminated) while Upton retires instead of facing defeat in his primary, which was won by challenger Jon Rocha in Kalamazoo. Both Gibbs and Rocha win their general election battles against competitive Democratic candidates. Democrats Dan Kildee and Elissa Slotkin, meanwhile, also faced tough reelections in their mid-Michigan districts, with Kildee narrowly winning reelection in his Flint-centric 8th and Slotkin narrowly losing her Lansing-based 7th to State Senator Tom Barrett due to a strong GOP turnout in exurban Detroit's Livingston County. The other four districts - all in conservative-tinted rural and mid-market areas - easily reelect their Republican incumbents.
115 Republicans, 96 Democrats (+24 GOP)
UPDATE (12/31) Stevens is now challenging Levin in the new 11th despite her Rochester Hills residence being in the commission's new 10th - which actually is more of a swing district on paper. Regardless of what ultimately may come of Michigan's new districts, it's safe to say - also taking into account south Oakland County being the center of Metro Detroit's Jewish community - Stevens won't be coming back IRL. Also, GOP former state Attorney General Bill Schuette is rumored to be challenging Kildee; if this becomes true it's likely another pickup for the GOP.

MINNESOTA
Both Republican Tom Emmer and Democrat Dean Phillips have to consider themselves lucky. Had Minnesota actually lost a seat, which was projected to happen in 2010 but never did, both would have been drawn out of their respective seats into a full-blown suburban battleground that would have driven both incumbents out of their comfort zones. In particular, the Minneapolis-based 5th of Ilhan Omar would have had to expand westward into some of the more Democratic parts of Phillips' 3rd, while Emmer's 6th (to benefit freshman Republican Michelle Fischbach in the western-based 7th) would have been eliminated with his home drawn into Phillips' west suburban Twin Cities-based 3rd centered on Lake Minnetonka.

Ultimately, that never happened, and Emmer ends up winning reelection in his exurban Twin Cities and St. Cloud-based 6th, while Phillips fends off a late Republican challenge to win a third term in the 3rd. Republicans do gain one seat in the Twin Cities, as Marine Corps reserve officer Tyler Kistner followed up his surprisingly close 2020 race against incumbent two-term Democrat Angie Craig by denying her a third term in the south suburban 2nd. Democrats Omar and St. Paul-based Betty McCollum in the 4th, along with rural Republicans Fischbach, Jim Hagedorn (1st) and Pete Stauber (8th) all win their reelection bids.
120 Republicans, 99 Democrats (+25 GOP)

MISSISSIPPI
Before the election, Republican incumbent Steven Palazzo resigned from his 4th District seat in the wake of explosive allegations in which he not only faced ethics violations for misusing campaign funds and having his staff run his personal errands, but even used said campaign funds to fund his own legal defense. State Senator Chris McDaniel, eight years removed from a contentious Senate race against now deceased Sen. Thad Cochran, enters the race after Palazzo resigns and emerges out of a crowded field of candidates - some of whom had been running before the seat became vacant, and wins the special election over a nominal Democratic opponent in a heavily Republican district connecting Biloxi to Hattiesburg. The rest of the state's delegation, including January 6th House committee chair Bennie Thompson, is reelected.
123 Republicans, 100 Democrats (+25 GOP)

MISSOURI
No seats change hands, but two Republican seats have new incumbents due to their previous incumbents' runs for the Senate seat Eric Greitens won. In the exurban Kansas City-to-Columbia-based 4th, former Kansas City TV news anchor Mark Alford defeats mid-Missouri State Representative Sara Walsh and several other candidates to succeed Vicky Hartzler, while Eric Burlison emerges out of a crowded field to succeed Billy Long in the Springfield and Joplin-based 7th. Both newcomers defeated Democratic challengers by large margins. The only other notable race in the state is Republican incumbent Ann Wagner's reelection bid in the suburban St. Louis-based 2nd, where she wins by double digits against a well-funded challenge from Democratic businessman Ben Samuels.
129 Republicans, 102 Democrats (+25 GOP)

MONTANA
For the first time in 30 years Montana has two congressional seats. Incumbent Matt Rosendale is easily reelected in the heavily Republican eastern-based 2nd, while former Trump Administration Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, who left his position after the 2018 midterms under an ethical cloud, beats back a strong challenge from former state senator and surgeon Al Olszewski, and goes on to defeat nonprofit executive Cora Neumann in the more competitive western-based 1st that connects the college towns of Missoula and Bozeman.
131 Republicans, 102 Democrats (+26 GOP)

NEBRASKA
The Unicameral shored up vulnerable Republican Don Bacon in his Omaha-based 2nd by adding exurban Saunders County, but the moderate Bacon still faced a competitive challenge from Democratic State Senator Tony Vargas. Still, Bacon defeats Vargas in the new 2nd by more than 10 points as fellow Republicans Jeff Fortenberry (1st) and Adrian Smith (3rd) are both easily reelected.
134 Republicans, 102 Democrats (+26 GOP)

NEVADA
Democrats thought that by creating three evenly Democratic seats in and around Las Vegas, they would create a supermajority with Reno-based Mark Amodei's 2nd as the lone seat safe for the GOP. However, this move blows up in their face as the "Brandon wave" trips up all three incumbent Democrats. In the new 1st (the Las Vegas Strip to the traditionally-GOP suburb of Henderson), longtime incumbent Dina Titus, fresh off a brutal primary against progressive challenger Amy Vilela, loses to retired Army Reservist and financial planner Mark Robertson, while two-term incumbent Susie Lee lost her Summerlin-to-Laughlin 3rd against attorney April Becker. Even the most Democratic seat, the 4th connecting strongly Democratic North Las Vegas to the vicinity of "Area 51" north of the Las Vegas Valley, isn't safe as three-term (two consecutively) incumbent Steven Horsford loses to professional boxer Jessie Vargas, who emerged out of a crowded primary to win despite being vastly outspent by Horsford.
138 Republicans, 102 Democrats (+29 GOP)

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Despite Democrats in the New Hampshire House of Representatives offering a more balanced redistricting plan, Republicans who controlled the whole process passed their map anyway and signed it into law. The Democrat on the wrong end of the redraw, 1st District incumbent Chris Pappas, runs for reelection anyway but loses to his 2020 opponent Matt Mowers, who defeated fellow former Trump White House staffer Karoline Leavitt and the wife of Trump's former U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand, Gail Huff Brown (whose husband also happens to be a former U.S. Senator for Massachusetts named Scott). But even Annie Kuster in the nearby 2nd (connecting Concord, Nashua and now Portsmouth to the North Country) isn't immune from the national tide as she still loses to a late-rising candidate, craft brewery owner and one-time national security analyst Jeff Cozzens, who benefits from a field made comparatively weaker (one of his opponents stormed the Capitol on January 6th) but with the caveat that the North Country vote was more energized against Biden than even the exurban Boston constituents more prevalent in the 1st.
140 Republicans, 102 Democrats (+31 GOP)

(continue to House, Part 3...)

[SaintStan86]

Continuing with the House (Part 3, again subject to change...)

NEW JERSEY
Democrats initially benefited from a closed-door redistricting plan whose plan was chosen by a "tiebreaker" former state Supreme Court justice who cited "the Republicans' plan was chosen last time" as the reason for choosing the Democrats' new map. The state's two Republican incumbents - one-time Democratic castaway Jeff Van Drew and 21-term veteran Chris Smith, win reelection in their newly drawn 2nd and 4th districts, as do all of the five incumbent Democrats out of six seats that were that way before a certain former President's golden escalator ride; the sixth Democratic seat - vacated by the retiring Albio Sires in the Jersey City/Elizabeth-based 8th - would be filled by Port Authority of NY/NJ Commissioner Rob Menendez, whose father is U.S. Senator Bob Menendez. (EDITOR'S NOTE: The redistricting commission still didn't do the easiest change they could have made - swapping the numbers of the 5th and 12th districts as it would have made the otherwise numerically correct map 100% consistent!)

However, the other four Democrats - all from seats that flipped blue from 2016 onward - had much tougher races, but none more so than Tom Malinowski whose 7th District (now stretching from the exurban Skylands west of New York City all the way out to Linden on the Hudson across from Staten Island) became a Republican-leaning seat, and who lost to State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. in a rematch of their 2020 race which took days to declare a winner. And in another rematch, a commanding fundraising lead and a more favorable district helps Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer defeat his 2020 challenger, investment banker Frank Pallotta, albeit by a slimmer margin. Two other Democrats, Andy Kim in the South Jersey-based 3rd and Mikie Sherrill in the west Essex/Morris-based 11th, are both reelected by close margins with the latter being speculated for a higher office as will play out in this TL.
143 Republicans, 111 Democrats (+32 GOP)

NEW MEXICO
Democrats framed their new redistricting plan - in which all three districts voted for Joe Biden - as aimed at increasing the state's Hispanic delegation. However, in reality only the 1st District of Melanie Stansbury (first elected in a special election) is seen as a favored seat for the Democrats. The other two, despite Democratic leans, end up becoming competitive seats for two freshman incumbents - Republican Yvette Herrell in the southern-based 2nd, and Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez in the Santa Fe/Farmington-based 3rd that now extends to Roswell. The strong Republican trend in the congressional vote ultimately serves to benefit Herrell (who defeats Democratic Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez) while narrowly reelecting Leger Fernandez against former Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya who only entered the race after the new districts came out). Stansbury, though, also won a close race in a 1st District that now included more Republican areas of Albuquerque against Republican challenger Michelle Garcia Holmes, making both her seat (and Leger Fernandez's) a top 2024 target for the NRCC.
144 Republicans, 113 Democrats (+32 GOP)

NEW YORK
The streak of losing continues...streak of losing congressional seats, that is, as the state loses one seat at the last minute, continuing the state's long trend of losing at least one seat with every Census. With Democrats in full control and the nightmare of Andrew Cuomo now relegated to bad movies, the legislature's Democratic majority turned their focus to drawing new districts for 2022, ultimately settling on a plan that combined 13 heavily Democratic districts with 13 others that are either mildly competitive or swing to various degrees. Ultimately, sophomore Democrat Antonio Delgado's district - straddling the Hudson Valley - is the one that gets eliminated.

In and around New York City, where 10 of the 13 Democratic locks are located, not much has changed save for the primary defeat of East Side Manhattan-based incumbent Carolyn Maloney (who loses to 2020 challenger and former Obama White House aide Suraj Patel in the 12th). No other incumbent Democrats from the Five Boroughs (well, at least four of them) have decided to retire and therefore win reelection easily, including retirement water cooler targets Jerrold Nadler (10th, West Side Manhattan/Orthodox Jewish enclaves in Brooklyn) and Nydia Velazquez (7th, mostly in Brooklyn). The only competitive race in NYC is a rematch between Republican freshman Nicole Malliotakis and former Congressman Max Rose, which the former wins by more than 15 points.

Where Democrats do have setbacks, however, are in the New York City suburbs as the combination of COVID fatigue, crime issues and general anti-incumbent sentiment ultimately doom most of the Democrats save for Kathleen Rice, who escapes a potential primary challenge in her 4th (now extending from Nassau County into Hollis) to win by more than 10 points in her new district, and Jamaal Bowman who easily wins reelection in his 16th despite his district now being dominated by southern Westchester County (with a tiny sliver of the Bronx that includes his residence). On Long Island, Republicans sweep the region's three congressional battlegrounds with freshman Andrew Garbarino winning a rematch against Jackie Gordon in the Levittown/West Babylon-based 2nd, State Senator Anthony Palumbo defeating Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming to succeed Lee Zeldin (who chose to run for Governor) in the Hamptons-based 1st, and George Santos following up on his surprisingly close 2020 3rd District race against Tom Suozzi (who also ran for Governor) to defeat Melanie D'Arrigo in a district stretching from Hauppauge and Oyster Bay to Bayside.

North of New York City, the situation doesn't get any better for Democrats. In the outer Hudson Valley suburbs, Mondaire Jones loses in a shocker to State Assemblyman Colin Schmitt in the Rockland-to-Westchester-based 17th, while Sean Patrick Maloney loses reelection in the Middletown-to-Poughkeepsie-based 18th to Dutchess County Executive and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Marc Molinaro. The latter is especially embarrassing for Democrats, as Maloney not only has lost dozens of seats as DCCC Chairman, but couldn't even hang on to his own seat. As for the aforementioned Antonio Delgado, he decides to seek reelection in the GOP-leaning 20th of Republican Claudia Tenney which includes his hometown of Schenectady and the college town of Hamilton (where he played basketball for Colgate University) in addition to Binghamton, the Catskills and the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. However, the homecoming would be short-lived as Tenney ultimately beat Delgado in the new district.

In the rest of Upstate New York, after much handwringing John Katko (whose Syracuse-based 22nd was made more Democratic in redistricting) ultimately decides to move to the new Elmira-to-Oswego 23rd, where fellow moderate Republican Tom Reed is retiring, and wins his primary despite fierce conservative opposition over both his moderate voting record and especially his vote to impeach Donald Trump over January 6th (making him one of a handful amongst the ten impeacheés who win their primaries). Katko's old seat, which would be won by Democratic naval reserve captain Francis Conole, ultimately becomes one of four seats won by Democrats in the Upstate along with Albany-based Paul Tonko in the new 19th, Rochester-based Joe Morelle in the 25th, and Buffalo-based Brian Higgins in the 26th. Republicans Elise Stefanik (21st, Watertown-to-Plattsburgh) and Chris Jacobs (24th in Niagara Falls and the Buffalo suburbs, formerly the old 27th) round out the upstate delegation.
154 Republicans, 129 Democrats (+34 GOP)

NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina gets its much anticipated new seat after missing out on it after the 2010 Census. Despite lingering legal challenges, the districts are ultimately used for the 2022 elections save for one big change - the reinstatement of freshman Democrat Kathy Manning's Greensboro-area district (formerly the 6th, now the 11th) by the state Supreme Court after Republicans in the state legislature shredded it. This last-minute change, which resulted in the primary calendar being bumped by two months, ultimately creates a domino effect that pushes three Republican incumbents into successively redrawn districts - Virginia Foxx to the western Piedmont-based 12th, Patrick McHenry to the west suburban Charlotte-based 13th (which also includes the Unifour region well northwest of Charlotte), and freshman Madison Cawthorn to the Ashevile-based 14th. Outside of Cawthorn's fairly competitive seat (due to Asheville being an artsy liberal Democratic stronghold in an otherwise Republican-dominated district), the new districts are locks for the incumbents.

Meanwhile, the only other seats that come close to being competitive are the Black/White coalition 2nd in eastern North Carolina and the newly-drawn 4th in the Fayetteville area south of Raleigh. Both parties ultimately split the seats with Democrat Erica Smith narrowly defeating Republican challenger Sandy Smith in a battle of "Smiths" for the 2nd, while former Congresswoman Renee Ellmers emerged out of a crowded Republican field to defeat State Representative Charles Graham in the 4th. Republicans Greg Murphy in the Greenville-based 1st and David Rouzer in the Wilmington-based 3rd are easily reelected, along with Democrat Deborah Ross in the Raleigh-based 5th. New to the Triangle region is State Senator Wiley Nickel, who succeeds longtime Democrat David Price in a 6th that connects Chapel Hill and Durham to the Democratic-leaning Raleigh suburb of Cary.

Lastly, the rest of Raleigh's Wake County - a southern portion that includes Holly Springs and Fuquay-Varina - is connected with suburban areas east and south of Greensboro in a new 7th where Republican former Congressman Mark Walker returns to Congress, having departed in 2020 when his previous district was morphed into a Democratic seat and fresh off an ill-fated U.S. Senate run after losing the coveted Trump nomination to Ted Budd, whose vacancy to run for Senate led to this district being open in the first place. Three incumbents based in the Charlotte area are reelected - with most of Charlotte itself being placed in the heavily Democratic 9th that reelects incumbent Democrat Alma Adams, the south suburban-based 8th (now stretching eastward to Pinehurst and Laurinburg) reelecting Republican Dan Bishop, and Republican incumbent Richard Hudson winning reelection in the north suburban-based 10th.
163 Republicans, 134 Democrats (+35 GOP)

NORTH DAKOTA
Republican incumbent Kelly Armstrong is easily reelected to a third term as the state's lone Congressman.
164 Republicans, 134 Democrats (+35 GOP)

OHIO
Despite recent efforts at nonpartisan redistricting reform, Democrats ended up further behind in Ohio's congressional sweepstakes, with the state's six competitive seats all leaning towards Republicans and only two heavily Democratic seats in Cleveland (Shontel Brown, 11th) and Columbus (Joyce Beatty, 3rd). Despite ongoing litigation, the map ultimately remains in place for this cycle but will have to be redrawn before the 2026 elections, pending future court rulings. While Democrats ultimately run vigorous campaigns in the two most competitive seats - the Cincinnati-based 1st of Republican Steve Chabot and the west suburban Cleveland and Akron-based 13th, which one-time rising star Anthony Gonzalez left open after his vote to impeach Trump over January 6th led to criticism from Republicans in his district and nationally, their efforts ultimately fall short as Chabot is reelected in the 1st and Republican former Trump White House aide Max Miller defeated his Democratic challenger, podcaster Matthew Diemer, in the 13th.

Elsewhere in the state, three other Republicans - veteran incumbent Mike Turner in the Dayton-based 10th, David Joyce in the east suburban Cleveland-based 14th and newly minted Mike Carey in the suburban Columbus-based 15th - also win their reelections quite easily despite the best efforts of Democrats to make those races competitive. And despite her Toledo-based 9th district's historic Democratic lean, 40-year incumbent Marcy Kaptur loses reelection to State Senator Theresa Gavarone, who beat back a fierce challenge from attorney, conservative commentator and former Miss Ohio Madison Gesiotto Gilbert to win the GOP nomination - and become the first Republican to win the district in 42 years. The state's other seven Republican incumbents all easily win reelection including Bill Johnson, who also succeeds Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Tim Ryan in a 6th District that now extends to Youngstown, and newly minted House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, whose 4th District is now anchored in Columbus's northern suburbs including Delaware County.
177 Republicans, 136 Democrats (+36 GOP)

OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma's entire five-member delegation, all Republicans, is returned to Congress.
182 Republicans, 136 Democrats (+36 GOP)

OREGON
Oregon gets a new district, but the state does become a congressional battlefield as three of the six districts in the favorably Democratic state are hotly contested, its initial map having been subjected to legal challenges over gerrymandering issues until the state Supreme Court tossed out the lawsuit. The biggest contest is in the Eugene-based 4th District, where longtime Democrat Peter DeFazio is retiring and which was made more Democratic in redistricting after DeFazio's close race in 2020 against Afghan War Veteran Alek Skarlatos, who gained national attention in 2015 for thwarting a terrorist attack in Paris and became a motivational speaker since then. Despite the best efforts of Democrats to salvage the seat, a contentious primary (won by State Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle) and the general trend against Democrats (especially in more agrarian districts like the 4th) ultimately propels Skarlatos to a close victory in his second go-round for the seat.

Democrats also struggled in two suburban Portland districts with slight Democratic leans. In the more competitive 5th District, now stretching from Lake Oswego and most of Clackamas County all the way out to Bend, incumbent Kurt Schrader is dragged into a legal battle to maintain a vacation home (many miles away in the Hamptons) that depletes his personal capital while also drawing criticism over the incumbent being "out of touch" with his constituents. After fending off a primary challenge from progressive attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, Schrader ultimately loses to former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the general election. Meanwhile, in the new 6th District (based in Salem and extending northward to the Portland suburbs of Tigard and Tualatin), Republican Amy Ryan Courser narrowly defeated Democrat Andrea Salinas to become the district's first-ever representative. Three incumbents - Portland Democrats Suzanne Bonamici (1st) and Earl Blumenauer (3rd) and eastern-based Republican Cliff Bentz (2nd) - are easily reelected.
186 Republicans, 138 Democrats (+39 GOP)

PENNSYLVANIA
After much infighting between the Republican-controlled legislature and outgoing Democratic Governor Tom Wolf, the state Supreme Court ends up drawing the new maps once again. In the end, the 9th District of Republican Dan Meuser is combined with the 12th District of fellow Republican Fred Keller, who ends up winning easily in the new 9th after Meuser moved within Wilkes-Barre's Luzerne County to challenge Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright, whose 8th District - now connecting Wilkes-Barre and Scranton to heavily Republican exurban and rural territory clockwise from the Southern Tier to the Poconos - becomes a Republican-leaning battleground with a mixture of rural traditionalists, blue-collar populists and exurban expats from Philadelphia and New York City (whose TV market and combined statistical area includes Pike County).

While Cartwright's 2020 nominee, attorney Jim Bognet, ultimately drops out of the primary and endorses Meuser, another Republican challenger, businessman Teddy Daniels (known for a high-energy campaign style that included a viral ad in which he mocked "country club Republicans"), remains in the primary. Despite criticism regarding his family's mobility business (Pride Mobility) from Daniels, Meuser ultimately wins the GOP primary and defeats Cartwright in the general election. Democrats end up having a particularly bad night as two of the Delaware Valley's "Fab Four" congresswomen lose their reelection bids. In the Lehigh Valley-based 7th, Susan Wild loses a rematch with former Lehigh County Commissioner Lisa Scheller, while Chrissy Houlahan loses her Chester County and Reading-based 6th to former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain (who dropped out of the race for Governor to pursue this seat). (The other two members of the "Fab Four" - Montgomery County-based Madeleine Dean (4th) and Delaware County-based Mary Gay Scanlon (5th) - were both reelected.) The chances of a "Fab Five" aren't even there, as Bucks County-based moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick (1st) easily wins reelection.

Outside of the Philadelphia suburbs, Republicans also gain back the 17th District of Democrat Conor Lamb (who made an ill-fated bid for the U.S. Senate) in Pittsburgh's northern and western suburbs, with businesswoman and attorney Tricia Staible defeating attorney and Iraq War veteran Chris Deluzio in an expensive swing seat battle. Democrats do elect a new member of Congress from Pittsburgh, as State Representative Summer Lee, a darling of national progressives, wins a contested primary to succeed retiring incumbent Mike Doyle in the new 15th (formerly the old 18th). The state's other six congressional districts - all in suburban Pittsburgh and rural areas of western and central PA - easily reelect their Republican incumbents.
198 Republicans, 143 Democrats (+42 GOP)

(continue to House, Part 4...)

[SaintStan86]

Still on the House (Part 4, all subject to change...)

RHODE ISLAND
Instead of a competitive Democratic primary for what would have been the first-million constituent at-large seat in American history, Democrats breathe a sigh of relief as both the 1st and 2nd districts remain. Their respective incumbents - David Cicilline and Jim Langevin - are easily reelected despite rumors of the latter retiring or facing a primary challenge from a more liberal challenger.
198 Republicans, 145 Democrats (+42 GOP)

SOUTH CAROLINA
Despite having one of the largest and most dispersed Black populations in the South, no "Minority Impact Districts" are created, with only the Charleston-based 1st of freshman Nancy Mace and the suburban Columbia-based 2nd of venerable Joe Wilson (both Republicans) coming even close to being competitive. Despite a primary challenge from a challenger backed by Donald Trump (who targeted Mace for defeat after she voted to hold Steve Bannon in contempt over his refusal to testify before Congress over January 6th), the well-funded and media-savvy Mace wins her primary and easily wins a second term. And in the 2nd, despite rumors of retirement, the 75-year-old Wilson decides to run again and wins another term without much difficulty. However, one Republican incumbent does fall in the primary.

In the Myrtle Beach-based 7th, incumbent Tom Rice surprised many observers by voting to impeach Trump following the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Whatever conservative support Rice had dried up as he drew a wide field of primary challengers, and ultimately Rice misses the runoff which pits podcaster and Turning Point USA-aligned Graham Allen against State Representative Russell Fry; despite trailing Allen in the primary, Fry ultimately wins the runoff on the basis of his leadership role in the state house and roots in the Grand Strand (versus Allen who had recently moved to the district) and defeats a nominal Democratic opponent. Upstate Republican incumbents Jeff Duncan (3rd, Clemson-to-Aiken), William Timmons (4th, Greenville & Spartanburg) and Ralph Norman (5th, Charlotte suburbs) are also reelected, along with Columbia-based Democrat Jim Clyburn (6th, also extending to Charleston and Beaufort) who is convinced by national Democrats to seek another term despite his age and prospects of a deep Democratic minority.
204 Republicans, 146 Democrats (+42 GOP)

SOUTH DAKOTA
Had John Thune chosen to retire from the Senate and/or Governor Kristi Noem decided to run for said Senate seat, Dusty Johnson would have become a favorite to win the Republican nomination for either vacancy, and the GOP primary for South Dakota's at-large congressional seat - and maybe, with the right cards, the Democratic primary as well - would have been a barn-burner. Instead, Thune decided to run for reelection to the Senate (to the dismay of Trump), Noem decided to run for reelection as Governor (to the dismay of some detractors who accused her of "caving" over a bill addressing transgendered college athletes), and Johnson defeats a late-breaking challenger who challenged him on such detractions to easily win a third term.
205 Republicans, 146 Democrats (+42 GOP)

TENNESSEE
Behind closed doors, Tennessee's fully Republican redistricting overlords came up with a redistricting plan that dramatically overhauled Middle Tennessee's districts, specifically cracking Nashville and Davidson County into four sections. The largest piece, consisting of just over half the county including downtown, north and southeast Nashville, winds up in the 5th District of incumbent Democrat Jim Cooper whose district is now over one-quarter Black and includes most of Nashville's northern suburbs as well as the college town of Clarksville. Another third, situated in the more affluent southern part of the city including the Green Hills and Belle Meade areas and also incorporating Vanderbilt, Belmont and Lipscomb universities, winds up in the 4th District of Republican Scott DesJarlais that is now even more concentrated in Metro Nashville including all of suburban Rutherford County, with a small rural section centered on Tullahoma and DesJarlais' home base in the suburbs west of Chattanooga. Other splinters include an eastern sliver bordering Wilson County in the 6th District of John Rose and a southwest portion from west Nashville out to Bellevue in the 7th District of Mark Green; both districts easily reelect their Republican incumbents.

As for the dramatically rebalanced 4th and 5th, the latter becomes a battleground in the primary as Cooper narrowly loses a challenge from liberal community organizer Odessa Kelly, who narrowly defeats Republican challenger Robby Starbuck in a new district that was Republican enough to make it competitive but Democratic enough to satisfy the moderate Cooper. Meanwhile, DesJarlais ultimately decides to run for and wins a seventh term as conservative physician Manny Sethi, known for his late-breaking conservative insurgency in the 2020 GOP primary for U.S. Senate that was ultimately won by Bill Hagerty, reaffirmed against running for Congress even after his south Nashville home was drawn into the 4th. The rest of the state's congressional delegation - three Republicans in East Tennessee along with Memphis and west Tennessee's all-Jewish delegation of Republican David Kustoff and Democrat Steve Cohen - are easily reelected.
212 Republicans, 148 Democrats (+42 GOP)

TEXAS
As expected, Texas's congressional influence grew even stronger in the last Census as the Lone Star State becomes the only state to gain more than one seat, adding two new seats to increase its delegation to 38. Despite the state's growth largely being driven by minorities, however, the new map ends up being favorable to Republicans and Anglos, leading to ongoing litigation that for now stands moot as primary filing closed before Christmas and the map ultimately stays in place for at least the 2022 elections.

However, the biggest election impact is seen in south Texas, where a massive shift of middle-class Hispanics (or more specifically, Tejanos) towards Trump in 2020 ultimately leads to two pickups for the GOP in the region. The first one is unsurprising, as Monica De La Cruz defeated Democratic attorney Ruben Ramirez to become the first Republican to represent the 15th District from McAllen to east exurban San Antonio. The 15th's incumbent Democrat, Vicente Gonzalez (who De La Cruz nearly defeated in 2020), is returning though as Gonzalez chose to seek reelection in the Brownsville-based 34th where his fellow Democrat Filemon Vela chose to retire after five terms. However, Republicans also made a surprise victory in the nearby Laredo-based 28th District (stretching as far north as the eastern San Antonio suburbs) after longtime Democrat Henry Cuellar, a moderate who once served as Texas Secretary of State under Rick Perry, lost the Democratic primary to progressive attorney Jessica Cisneros and retaliated by switching to the GOP and endorsing that party's nominee, veterans' advocate Eric Hohman, who went on to win the election in a shocking upset.

Meanwhile, in the rest of Texas the impact of the state's Republican-tinged redraw is evident within the angles of the "Texas Triangle". In the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, freshmen Republican Beth Van Duyne and Jake Ellzey (the latter of whom won a special election in 2021 after previous incumbent Ron Wright died of COVID-19) are easily reelected despite their previous districts having been equally competitive in 2020. In fact, asides from the election of State Representative Jasmine Crockett who succeeds retiring Democrat Eddie Bernice Johnson in the south and downtown Dallas-based 30th, all of the incumbents primarily serving North Texas are reelected, including Democrat Colin Allred (whose east Dallas-based 32nd became more Democratic in redistricting after shedding north Dallas and the Park Cities to the 24th), Republican Van Taylor (who beat back primary challengers who suggested he wasn't "pro-Trump" enough to easily win reelection in his Plano-based 3rd that shed its more Democratic areas to the nearby, heavily Republican 4th of Sherman-based Pat Fallon), and Republican Roger Williams (whose heavily Republican 25th remains such even after adding a largely Democratic section of Arlington that includes Six Flags Over Texas and the home stadiums of the Dallas Cowboys and Texas Rangers).

In and around Austin, Republicans correct the issue of virtually all of their Republican incumbents in the region being pushed into competitive seats by consolidating Travis County's Anglo liberals into a new 37th District where venerable incumbent Lloyd Doggett is reelected, with Doggett's previous 35th (still stretching from east Austin to downtown San Antonio, picking up Texas State University in San Marcos along the way) electing Texas's first Squad member in Socialist-leaning Austin City Councilman Greg Casar. The conservative-tinged remainder of Travis County (mostly in and around Lake Travis) remains in heavily Republican districts, with much of it remaining in the 10th District of Michael McCaul (extending now to College Station in addition to the western fringes of the Houston area), while two other Republicans who had competitive races in 2020 also end up winning reelection in safer districts: Chip Roy, who sees his north San Antonio- and Hill Country-based 21st become more Republican with only subtle changes, and John Carter, who wins another term in his Round Rock-to-Temple-based 31st that sheds the Democratic stronghold of Killeen to the heavily Republican, Permian Basin-based 11th of sophomore incumbent August Pfluger. Punctuating the GOP-friendly nature of the redistricting is the San Antonio-to-El Paso 23rd of freshman Republican Tony Gonzales, who defeats Democratic challenger John Lira in a once-swingy seat that was made more Republican.

Lastly, rapid growth in the Houston area results in a new, heavily Republican 38th that connects affluent west Houston and Harris County (including the Memorial Villages) to heavily suburban northwest Harris County. The new district elects Wesley Hunt, who nearly defeated Democratic freshman Lizzie Fletcher in the 2020 battle for the 7th District. Fletcher does win a third term in the new 7th - now stretching from moderate-to-liberal areas of inner-loop and southwest Houston to Asian and Hispanic enclaves in Alief and Fort Bend County, but ends up winning with just under 55 percent in a district whose neighborhoods trended more from the GOP under Trump than many other parts of the country. All of the other Houston-area incumbents are easily reelected, save for the retirement of longtime Republican Kevin Brady who is succeeded in his Montgomery County-based 8th (now extending into several exurban areas of west Harris County) by Brady's former campaign manager Christian Collins, who won a bruising runoff against Morgan Luttrell, a Navy SEAL and the twin brother of fellow Navy SEAL and noted "lone survivor" Marcus Luttrell. Notably absent from the new 8th is the wealthy Republican suburb of The Woodlands, which has been moved into the 2nd District of Dan Crenshaw that has gone from being a relatively competitive GOP seat in northwest Houston and Harris County to a north suburban Houston GOP stronghold.

Outside of the major metro areas, no other seats change hands, with the only change being the election of Smith County Judge Nathaniel Moran in the Tyler-based 1st, succeeding fellow Republican Louie Gohmert who made a quixotic bid for Texas Attorney General.
238 Republicans, 160 Democrats (+44 GOP)

UTAH
Utah's all-Republican delegation is sorted out into safe Republican seats, with the once-competitive 4th of freshman Republican Burgess Owens now the most Republican district in the state, in addition to also being the most compact as well.
242 Republicans, 160 Democrats (+44 GOP)

VERMONT
With Democrat Peter Welch earning a promotion to the Senate, Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray wins a competitive primary against State Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint to keep Vermont's lone congressional seat in Democratic hands.
242 Republicans, 161 Democrats (+44 GOP)

VIRGINIA
The final plotting of the new maps in the Old Dominion came down to the state Supreme Court, with the biggest changes involving the 7th of moderate Democrat Abigail Spanberger being morphed into a Dem-leaning seat stretching across the Northern Virginia exurbs from Woodbridge to north of Charlottesville and Richmond, and the 1st of Republican Rob Wittman now stretching from the northern reaches of Hampton Roads (including Williamsburg) to northern and western suburbs of Richmond. While Wittman wins reelection in the new 1st with little difficulty, the friendlier lines don't necessarily translate to victory for Spanberger who narrowly loses to State Senator Bryce Reeves in a district that narrowly voted for Gov. Glenn Youngkin the previous year. Another loser for the Democrats is Elaine Luria, whose Virginia Beach-based 2nd now flips to Republican State Senator Jen Kiggans, while Republican freshman Bob Good wins a second term against attorney Lewis Combs with relative ease despite his district now including the college town of Charlottesville. Not all is bad news for Democrats, as two-term incumbent Jennifer Wexton narrowly wins reelection in her Loudoun & western Prince William-based 10th against Prince William County Supervisor Jeanine Lawson. The other incumbents - two Black Democrats between Richmond and Norfolk, two white Democrats in Northern Virginia and two Republicans serving western parts of the state - all win reelection without difficulty.
248 Republicans, 166 Democrats (+46 GOP)

WASHINGTON
Republicans in the Evergreen State were thrown into chaos when two of their three incumbents - Vancouver-based Jaime Herrera Beutler (3rd) and Dan Newhouse (4th) voted to impeach Trump after January 6th. In the end, Herrera Beutler misses the runoff against retired Army officer Joe Kent and a nominal Democratic opponent who Kent defeats in the general, while Newhouse does manage to make the runoff against businessman Doug White, the only Democrat to file for the seat, due to a divided conservative and Trumpian vote between former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler and former 2020 gubernatorial nominee Loren Culp; Newhouse would be easily reelected against White.
 
However, not all is lost for conservatives in the state. In addition to reelecting Cathy McMorris Rodgers from the Spokane-based 5th, Republicans score another victory in the east suburban Seattle-based 8th where King County Councilman Reagan Dunn (son of late former 8th District Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn) emerged out of a crowded blanket primary field to defeat two-term Democrat Kim Schrier, who drew some controversy over her failure to disclose a massive buy of Apple stock against House transparency rules (and obviously embarrassing considering the economic presence of Microsoft in the area), but ultimately lost due to the district being drawn as a "fair fight" district which in this cycle does not translate into good news for Democrats. The rest of the state's delegation, all in favorably to heavily Democratic districts in and around Seattle and the Puget Sound region, are reelected without much difficulty.
252 Republicans, 172 Democrats (+47 GOP)

WEST VIRGINIA
West Virginia's gradual decline continues as the long-economically stagnant state loses another congressional seat. Despite rumors that he would retire, 75-year-old David McKinley ultimately decides to seek reelection in the new 2nd District against fellow Republican incumbent Alex Mooney, who is younger, better funded and more aligned with conservatives and Trump than the venerable McKinley. Even though the new 2nd contains a larger share of the old 1st (Morgantown, Parkersburg) than the old 2nd (specifically Mooney's power base in the exurban Washington, D.C.-based Eastern Panhandle), Mooney's conservative voting record and strong fundraising ultimately proves fatalistic for the more established McKinley. Mooney, along with fellow Republican Carol Miller in the Charleston-based 1st, are both easily reelected in their new districts.
254 Republicans, 172 Democrats (+46 GOP)

WISCONSIN
After much infighting between the Republican-controlled Legislature and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, a "least changes map" ultimately is implemented for the 2022 cycle onward, keeping the formula of two heavily Democratic seats in Madison (2nd) and Milwaukee (4th), two competitive seats in the La Crosse (3rd) and Kenosha (1st) areas, and four strongly Republican seats covering the party's traditional power base in the Milwaukee suburbs (5th), the Oshkosh and Sheboygan areas (6th), northern areas around Wausau and Superior (7th) and the Green Bay and Appleton areas (8th). Seven of the eight incumbents seek reelection and win with the exception of moderate Democrat Ron Kind, who retires after a tough 2020 reelection against retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden in the 3rd which the latter wins over State Senator Brad Pfaff.
260 Republicans, 174 Democrats (+47 GOP)

WYOMING
Of all the ten Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump after the January 6th attack on the Capitol, none is more vulnerable than Liz Cheney whose involvement on the Democrat-led January 6th committee and persistent criticism of the former President ultimately contributes to her defeat by Trump-endorsed challenger Harriet Hageman, an attorney and RNC Committeewoman who once bucked the former President and allied with Cheney in happier times. Being in the most Republican state in the nation, Hageman unsurprisingly is elected to her first term.
261 Republicans, 174 Democrats (+47 GOP)

That completes the House preview...On to the Governors before the TL begins!

[SaintStan86]

Lastly, completing the introduction to the TL (somewhat delayed since I have been battling a cold and tested positive for COVID earlier in the week, but nonetheless feel better), here are the Governors that got elected in the 2022 cycle in this TL (2023 will come up at some point before Iowa, of course)...

SAFE

ALABAMA
Despite concerns regarding her age, 78-year-old Republican incumbent Kay Ivey wins a second full term in one of the most Republican states in the nation.

ARKANSAS
Former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders is elected the first female Governor of Arkansas in one of the easiest gubernatorial calls for the night - perhaps the easiest amongst open seats, succeeding term-limited fellow Republican Asa Hutchinson.

HAWAII
Well, maybe this would be easier except Hawaii is such a stronghold for the Democrats that term-limited David Ige ultimately is succeeded by his Lieutenant Governor, Josh Green over former UFC fighter B.J. Penn despite the latter being of actual Native Hawaiian descent.

IDAHO
The pandemic resulted in an explosive GOP primary (if only in terms of volume) as Brad Little drew criticism from his Lieutenant Governor, Janice McGeachin, who issued executive orders of her own while serving as Acting Governor during periods when Little was out of the state. Little ultimately ran, and would be challenged from the right not only by McGeachin but also anti-government activist Ammon Bundy (yes, from that Bundy family). The GOP primary becomes a slugfest for far-right votes, complete with coverage on OAN that was quite excessive for a primary in such a small, if growing, state. In the end, with the pandemic behind many Idahoans, cooler heads prevailed as Little easy defeated his primary challengers and easily wins a second term in the general.

ILLINOIS
Despite backlash from conservatives and parents over his handling of COVID, J.B. Pritzker has no trouble winning a second term as Governor, defeating Downstate State Senator Darren Bailey (who defeated former Congressman Adam Kinzinger and venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan in the GOP primary but failed to gain much traction afterwards) and perennial candidate Willie Wilson. When asked about his 2024 plans, Pritzker's response is "We've already elected one President, do we really need another?"

IOWA
After a close election in 2018, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds has a relatively easy reelection against Democratic State Rep. Ras Smith, with the Republican sweep of Iowa serving as a reminder of how far Democrats' fortunes have faded in the American heartland.

NEBRASKA
The GOP primary to succeed term-limited Pete Ricketts became somewhat controversial when Trump endorsed Angus cattle farmer Charles Herbster despite Ricketts' urging to Trump to stay out of the race. University of Nebraska regent and pig farmer Jim Pillen, State Sen. Brett Lindstrom and Herbster's former running mate Theresa Thibodeau were also candidates in the crowded field ultimately won by Pillen, who defeated State Sen. Carol Blood in the general.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
One of the most popular Governors in the nation, Republican Chris Sununu wins a fourth term over a nominal Democratic opponent.

OKLAHOMA
After winning a competitive race in 2018, Republican Kevin Stitt goes on to win a second term with ease against two former Republicans who quit over the party's opposition to mask and vaccine mandates: Democratic State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister and independent physician and former State Sen. Ervin Yen.

RHODE ISLAND
After succeeding Gina Raimondo when she became Biden's Commerce secretary, Dan McKee ultimately runs for a full term, wins a competitive Democratic primary, and then defeats a Republican challenger to win a full term.

SOUTH DAKOTA
Despite criticism from some in her party over her handling of what to do with transgendered athletes in the NCAA, Kristi Noem beats back a primary challenger and then wins a second term.

TENNESSEE
Republican Gov. Bill Lee is reelected to a second term over Democratic pulmonologist Jason Martin in one of the most Republican states in the nation.

VERMONT
After much speculation, popular moderate Republican Phil Scott ultimately decides to run for and wins a fourth term with ease.

WYOMING
While not exactly a remarkably notable Governor, Republican Mark Gordon ultimately decides to run for a second term and wins it anyway with high approval ratings in the most Republican state in the nation.

FAVORS

CALIFORNIA
Democrat Gavin Newsom ultimately wins a second term as Governor with just over 55 percent of the vote, still beating Larry Elder but by a closer margin as Elder gained votes from supporters who voted against recalling Newsom in 2021 either because they wanted to see Newsom's post-recall spending bonanza come to pass or because it was too soon to the general. (Historical note: The 2003 recall of Gray Davis in favor of Arnold Schwarzenegger occurred ONE YEAR after Davis won a second term, in contrast to one year before the general with regards to Newsom, which may explain why some who voted against recalling Newsom voted the way they did.)

COLORADO
Despite his party's struggles at the federal level, incumbent Jared Polis wins a fairly easy race for a second term, defeating businesswoman and at-large CU Board of Regents member Heidi Ganahl with nearly 60 percent of the vote. The relatively noncontroversial Polis's strong showing in an otherwise bleak year for Democrats fuels speculation of a 2024 presidential run to become the nation's first openly gay President, which Polis is quick to shoot down - for now.

CONNECTICUT
With the pandemic now behind him, Ned Lamont seeks a second term as Governor. Former model and WWE ring girl-turned-lawyer and former state house Minority Leader Themis Klarides wins the GOP nomination and wages a strong campaign vowing a "real Connecticut comeback"; whereas Lamont had consistently high approval ratings during the pandemic, his first year as Governor had him ranked amongst the least popular Governors in the country. Nonetheless, Lamont wins a second term even as Republicans make gains in both the congressional delegation and both houses of the General Assembly.

FLORIDA
Through a seesaw of economic highs and pandemic lows, Ron DeSantis has defied expectations. On top of his wife's battle with breast cancer, no one has had as interesting of a gubernatorial term as he has. Meanwhile, Democrats who were once enthused at the prospect of another gubernatorial battle in the nation's penultimate swing state became divided as former Governor Charlie Crist (who served his one term as a Republican) faded in favor of state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, while former Congressman David Jolly ultimately passes on an independent run under the Serve America Movement (SAM, which he chairs). In the end, DeSantis ends up winning by over 10 points as Fried - despite her relative youth and statewide position compared to Crist - turned out to be a relatively weaker Democrat than Crist in polling. #DeSantis2024 begins trending on Facebook, but DeSantis nonchalantly tamps these rumors down.

MINNESOTA
Former geography teacher, football coach and Army National Guard Sergeant-turned-Congressman Tim Walz rise to the Governor's mansion in 2018 can be best described as a classic "up from nowhere" story in politics. As for 2022, Walz faced the prospect of a competitive race in a state which had since become a swing state of sorts in recent years. Nonetheless, the DFL incumbent wins reelection by a fairly decent margin over former State Sen. Scott Jensen, a physician by trade noted for his skepticism on the effects of COVID-19.

NEW YORK
After the stunning fall of Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul rose from the lieutenant governorship to the Governor's post. Hochul being from Western New York ultimately proves not to be a hindrance as she defeated two candidates from the Tri-State area in the Democratic primary and then proceeded to defeat Congressman Lee Zeldin in the general.

SOUTH CAROLINA
While his predecessor Nikki Haley becomes the source of much speculation, Republican Henry McMaster wins a second term with just under 60 percent of the vote over former Congressman Joe Cunningham.

TEXAS
Despite outspoken criticism from some conservative circles, Greg Abbott easily wins the GOP primary with many expecting a fierce battle with former Congressman and former Senate and presidential hopeful Beto O'Rourke, with some arguing Abbott dodged a bullet when actor Matthew McConaughey passed on the race. Ultimately, Abbott ends up winning reelection by a bigger-than-expected margin - even winning such counties as Fort Worth's Tarrant, suburban Houston's Fort Bend, suburban Austin's Williamson, Beaumont's Jefferson and Corpus Christi's Nueces - all of which voted for O'Rourke in his 2018 Senate bid against Ted Cruz - and even Brownsville's Cameron County.

LEANS

ALASKA
After surviving recall threats and losing his previous running mate, Republican Mike Dunleavy wins a contentious general election against independent former Governor Bill Walker, winning narrowly on the last ballot.

ARIZONA
Former news anchor Kari Lake clears the Republican nomination despite a late-charging campaign from former Congressman Matt Salmon and not getting much in the way of endorsements asides from Trump, Mike Flynn and Mike Lindell, as many of Arizona's elected Republicans - establishment and conservative alike - endorsed her primary opponents. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, with near-universal support from her fellow Democrats, easily wins her party's nomination and sets off an all-female battle in which Lake often suggested incarcerating Hobbs over election fraud allegations. Outgoing, term-limited Governor Doug Ducey ultimately stays out of the race as Hobbs narrowly defeats Lake on the backs of the same small group of dissident "Maverick Republicans" who also bucked Martha McSally in both of her failed bids for a full Senate term in 2018 and 2020.

GEORGIA
The aftermath of the 2020 election ultimately put Brian Kemp in a very deep hole with his party, as Donald Trump vowed to get revenge on Kemp for refusing to overturn the 2020 result, leading to his handpicked choice in defeated U.S. Senator David Perdue. Compounding things even further, 2018 Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams also declared her candidacy for Governor, setting off the potential of a rematch not seen in GA since the Truman era. Ultimately, Kemp is pushed into a runoff despite being well ahead of Perdue, who is dragged by the candidacy of another Trump-aligned Republican in former Democrat-turned-Republican State Representative and ex-DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones. Jones ultimately endorsed Perdue, but Kemp manages to narrowly eke out a win over Perdue in the runoff. An obviously unhappy Trump decides to stay out of the race as Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel gets enough support to force a general election runoff, which Kemp narrowly wins the following January with Abrams conceding on Election Night. Unlike his counterpart to the south, Kemp declares this is his last race for public office.

KANSAS
In 2018, Laura Kelly benefited from more than just a national "blue wave"...a controversial Republican nominee (who defeated the incumbent in the GOP primary) and an earnest independent candidate already familiar to voters further added to her ascendancy to the Governor's mansion. This time, with a favorable environment for the GOP in the background, Kelly was pushed into a tough race against state Attorney General Derek Schmidt that proved to be competitive throughout. In the end, Schmidt prevailed over Kelly, continuing a long streak of personal and partisan turnover in the Sunflower State.

MAINE
In one of the more interesting races of the 2022 cycle, Democratic incumbent Janet Mills, who won in the aftermath of a new primary voting system where both parties nominated their candidates by ranked choice voting, faced off against her predecessor, Paul LePage, whose own controversial tenure as governor served as the basis for the new voting system (even though the new system does not apply to gubernatorial elections). Despite endorsements from fellow New England governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Maine's own moderate Republican U.S. Senator, Susan Collins, LePage's comeback bid ultimately falls short, though in the end Mills ends up winning by a plurality (versus an absolute majority in 2018).

MARYLAND
With popular moderate Republican Larry Hogan term-limited, Democrats looked to seize on one of their biggest pickup opportunities in what would be an otherwise bleak year for them. The Republicans nominated Secretary of Commerce Kelly Schulz, who defeated Trump-aligned State Del. Daniel Cox and former NBA heckler Robin Ficker, while the Democrats nominated State Comptroller Peter Franchot out of a crowded and often contentious field. The state ultimately reverted to its traditional Democratic form, electing Franchot as its next governor in a close race.

MASSACHUSETTS
Charlie Baker's decision not to seek a third term as Governor ultimately gave Democrats one of their best pickup opportunities for a governor's mansion in the midterms, but it was not without a fight. The GOP nominated Trump-backed former State Rep. Geoff Diehl, who had been in the race and earned the former President's backing before Baker made his final decision, while Democrats nominated state Attorney General Maura Healey as their candidate. In a relatively close race, with Baker out of the spotlight, Healey was elected the Commonwealth's next Governor, but with just over 55 percent of the vote in a state Democrats usually have no trouble winning, one where a Republican of Diehl's sort isn't usually the first option.

MICHIGAN
Gretchen Whitmer's draconian lockdowns during the pandemic, while initially drawing praise in the pre-vaccine period, ultimately came back to haunt her as Michigan now had to deal with economic headwinds that didn't necessarily blow favorably. The Republicans ultimately nominated former Detroit Police Chief James Craig as their gubernatorial nominee, and the race became one of the most watched in the nation. In the end, Craig narrowly defeated Whitmer by a very close margin.

NEVADA
After becoming the first Democrat in nearly a generation to be elected Governor, Steve Sisolak faced a competitive reelection against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo who defeated former U.S. Senator Dean Heller in the GOP primary. While his party had a terrible night at the federal level, Sisolak cashed his chips on a second term. He narrowly lost the bet.

NEW MEXICO
Republicans waged a serious campaign against first-term Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who drew criticism over her handling of the pandemic as well as allegations that she harassed a former spokesperson. Nonetheless, Lujan Grisham narrowly wins reelection over former TV meteorologist and U.S. Senate candidate Mark Ronchetti.

OHIO
It's one thing for Republicans to naturally attack their principal opponent over the pandemic. But it's another when perhaps the earliest advocate of the now-untenable "COVID Zero" strategy happens to be a Republican himself. That happened to Mike DeWine, whose penchant for such mitigation strategies as business shutdowns and mask mandates, coupled with Ohio's mediocre economic recovery compared to other states and controversy surrounding appointments to the state's utility regulator, led to the end of the former U.S. Senator's long career of public service at the hands of a primary defeat to former Congressman Jim Renacci. It may have been a blessing in disguise: whereas one poll showed DeWine losing to a generic opponent, Renacci went on to defeat Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley in a competitive race.

OREGON
The open race to succeed term-limited Democrat Kate Brown became the biggest opportunity in decades for Republicans to win back the Governor's Mansion - something that hadn't happened since 1982. The Democrats had a competitive primary won by State House Speaker Tina Kotek, while Republicans nominated former State House Minority Leader Christine Drazan; both were joined by independent State Sen. Betsy Johnson, a former Democrat known for taking maverick positions in opposition to her party on various issues. In what ultimately turned out to be a wild and competitive race, Drazan narrowly prevails with a plurality as her party experiences a stronger than expected night in Oregon.

PENNSYLVANIA
With Democrat Tom Wolf term-limited, Republicans sought to restore the state's traditional penchant to change hands in Harrisburg every eight years. The Democrats had an easy primary, nominating Attorney General Josh Shapiro with little opposition and backing from such luminaries as Wolf, former Gov. Ed Rendell and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. The Republicans, meanwhile, had a very competitive primary that grew to include two former U.S. representatives (Lou Barletta and Melissa Hart), State Senate President Pro Tem Jake Corman, American Conservative Union Vice Chair Charlie Gerow, State Senators Scott Martin and Doug Mastriano, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale and former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain among others. Ultimately, with some of the Republicans eventually dropping out, Barletta emerged out of the crowded field, and went on to narrowly defeat Shapiro in the general.

WISCONSIN
The race to challenge first-term Democrat Tony Evers ultimately pitted the GOP's traditional base in the suburban Milwaukee WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) against a more populist one rooted in the rural areas of northern and central Wisconsin. The former base shuffles behind former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch (who is backed by Evers' predecessor Scott Walker), while the latter rallies to former Congressman Sean Duffy (who is pushed to run by Trump and does so). Ultimately, Duffy narrowly outperforms Kleefisch, but the GOP does unite in time to defeat Evers in a photo-finish result, as Duffy outperforms Trump in the WOW counties while holding on to most of Trump's numbers elsewhere in the state.

That's all for the preview...Now on to the TL!

[SaintStan86]

Why did Charlie Christ even lose the primary to begin with?

I may be getting a little ahead of myself, but the news about Fried's ethics probe is new to me, and Taddeo apparently is getting momentum in her South Florida base. I may be giving an update soon on that, which may be warranted anyway with the House even though I nailed it on Bobby Rush retiring in IL-01 (which I think should have been consolidated with IL-07 since Illinois is not a VRA state and much of the population decline in Chicago has been on the South Side, but that doesn't matter to the Dem majority in Springfield).

[SaintStan86]

Thanks to everyone for all y'all's patience. Now, before I continue I shall make note of three updates I have decided to make (asides from Bobby Rush retiring, which as I said I have predicted and has come true):

CA-Gov: Larry Elder will not be running for Governor after all. Newsom will be reelected once again, but his margin may now be between 55 and 60 percent depending on who does run for the GOP mantle and if that Republican does make it to the runoff. I will give a further update on this when the GOP field becomes a little clearer, but I do think Newsom is going to be reelected with a percentage not unlike what Democrats usually get in this state.

MI-12: Brenda Lawrence is not going to seek reelection to what her current MI-14 will be in the next Congress. Though the district does include Southfield (which fits right into the district given its sizable Black population as well as that of west Detroit), Lawrence apparently wasn't happy with the district no longer extending northward into Pontiac, and a group of Black legislators in Michigan are already suing the state's redistricting commission over the new maps. Which is why I project the maps will be tossed and replaced with one partially based on the Chestnut plan, and why I eventually see a situation where Haley Stevens and possibly Andy Levin both lose versus Stevens' district being more Democratic to the point where Stevens (who actually resides in the Chestnut 10th) is challenging Levin (who actually lives in the new 11th). The Chestnut plan, left unchanged, puts the heavily Democratic southeast corner of Oakland County - Ferndale, Royal Oak, etc. - in Stevens' district, while putting Republican-tinted Rochester Hills (whose biggest claim to fame was being Madonna's old stomping grounds) in Levin's when in fact it actually would have made more sense to swap those areas and create two equally competitive suburban seats in northern Metro Detroit versus the one in Macomb.

Senate leadership: I have predicted that the Senate will be in GOP hands and that Mitch McConnell will step aside, but instead of passing the reins on to John Thune I am instead going to predict that Sen. John Cornyn of Texas (who has indicated his desire to succeed McConnell should he retire) will do so instead. Sen. John Thune will remain in leadership as the Senate Majority Whip, and will still run for reelection and win the primary (to Trump's discontent) and general (very easily) in this TL.

But all matters aside, time to move on to the TL! Starting with the aftermath of the midterms:

November 17, 2022
McCARTHY NOMINATED FOR SPEAKER, PELOSI WILL NOT RUN FOR MINORITY LEADER
In a unanimous vote of support, Kevin McCarthy was nominated by the House Republican Conference as their choice for Speaker of the House. Despite obvious differences between certain groups of Republicans, McCarthy projects a message of unity, saying "With America at a crossroads between those who wish to keep things the way they have been over the last two years and those who desire a return to the freedom that our families and our country have yearned for, this is not the time to squabble over who is more conservative. Because we all know that everyone in our new House majority is more conservative than the other side." With this vote, McCarthy is all but expected to become the most powerful California Republican since Ronald Reagan. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana is the nominee for House Majority Leader, while Jim Banks of Indiana, who chaired the influential Republican Study Committee in the last Congress, is set to become House Majority Whip.

Meanwhile, there will not be an intra-state counterpart leading the minority, as Nancy Pelosi has decided she will not run for House Minority Leader. In a statement, Pelosi notes "If we are going to save our democracy, the right solution is to pass on the torch to a new generation of dynamic problem solvers who are committed to defending our Constitution, finding the right solutions for our everyday kitchen table issues in ways that benefit all Americans." In a secret vote, the House Democratic Caucus nominated Hakeem Jeffries of New York, who beat back a progressive challenge from Pramila Jayapal of Washington to become the new leader of the House Democratic Caucus and their expected nominee for House Minority Leader, with Pelosi's "Assistant Speaker of the House", Katherine Clark of Massachusetts, likely to become House Minority Whip. The futures of former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, are uncertain, though all signs point to both men being very likely to retire if not resign before the end of their terms, as many predict Pelosi will do.

The Senate remains relatively unchanged save for a somewhat surprising move on the GOP side. Despite regaining the majority, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has decided to step aside as the Republican leader in the Senate, and will not serve as Senate Majority Leader in the 118th Congress. While some speculated that John Thune of South Dakota would move up from Senate Majority Whip to succeed McConnell, Thune decided against upgrading to McConnell's post after John Cornyn of Texas announced his candidacy for Senate Majority Leader - a position that Cornyn won unanimously with support from McConnell. The Democratic leadership remains unchanged, with Chuck Schumer of New York to become Senate Minority Leader and Dick Durbin of Illinois becoming Senate Minority Whip, despite some calls from progressives to replace the latter with a younger Senator more focused on the concerns of the party's ascendant progressive wing.

November 28, 2022
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI ANNOUNCES PARTIAL RETIREMENT ON '60 MINUTES'
In a highly publicized interview that aired Sunday night on CBS's 60 Minutes, President Biden's top COVID advisor, Dr. Anthony Fauci, announced that he will step down as Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the end of the year, reverting to part-time work at the National Institutes of Health in an Emeritus role. Throughout the course of the interview with CBS News correspondent Scott Pelley, Fauci looked back on his decades-long career in public service, his legacy on how his work has impacted the collective public health of both the United States and the world, and offered some words of advice to future epidemiologists looking to break into the field.

The interview, which took up virtually the entire program's namesake hour, was already expected to win the ratings night for CBS given its heavy ad promotion over the past week plus strong lead-out ratings from the network's Sunday NFL doubleheader, indeed earned 60 Minutes its strongest ratings of the year. Predictably, President Biden congratulated Fauci on his semi-retirement and called the celebrated physician a "national treasure", while former President Trump, while also congratulating him, called him "a very tough cookie who sometimes went too far over his head for a China Virus that 99% of Americans survived and gets too much credit for the beautiful vaccines I got out to Americans at record speed!" Reports indicate that Dr. Fauci's retirement package is the largest federal government pension in history, at a whopping $365,000.

December 7, 2022
SUPREME COURT JUSTICE STEPHEN BREYER TO RETIRE
Amid much speculation before and after the midterms, longtime Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer announced he will retire from the high court at the end of the year. Despite rumors that the liberal-aligned Breyer may have been pressed into doing so due to pressure from progressives who sought a justice more to their liking, Breyer said his decision to retire was one set on his own terms. Between the dramatic shift of the court towards a more conservative orientation, especially following the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, controversial rulings overturning vaccine mandates, restrictions on student aid for parochial schools, and (most significantly) Roe v. Wade during the summer of 2022, and his advanced age, Breyer felt that "this is the right time for me to step aside and reflect gracefully on what I have accomplished in the last three decades I have had the pleasure of serving on this court."

While many progressives and other Democratic Party-aligned groups remain committed to the long-term goal of expanding the number of justices on SCOTUS, many such groups call the opportunity for Biden to nominate one of his own to the high court "a step in the right direction", and in particular many of the potential nominees floated around are Black female justices - perhaps alluding to Biden's promise to nominate a Black woman to the Supreme Court for the first time. However, Biden has indicated that this decision will be made after the new Congress is sworn in, in order to allow the lame-duck 117th Congress to focus on wrapping up the unfinished business of the current Congress, especially given that many of the outgoing members have relocated to temporary offices in the basement of the Capitol. While some speculate that the new Senate will leave Biden's potential nominee to linger the way they did now-Attorney General Merrick Garland's nomination to replace Antonin Scalia in 2016, this does not come to pass as the vacancy is for a retiring liberal justice whose nominee will be selected by a Democratic President. (Editor's Note: If this were Clarence Thomas's seat being filled, the GOP leadership in the Senate would have gone all out to stop it the way they did Garland.) UPDATE (1/26/22): Justice Stephen Breyer is now officially retiring - just over 10 months ahead of my TL. This timeline is definitely moving ahead, but until the new justice is sworn in and votes taken, I'm not going to elaborate much on SCOTUS.

[SaintStan86]

January 4, 2023
118TH CONGRESS SWORN IN WITH HISTORIC REPUBLICAN MAJORITY
The 118th Congress was sworn in with the largest Republican majority in the House since the days of Calvin Coolidge. With little or no hiccups and plenty of fanfare, the newly appointed House Republican Conference Chairman, Debbie Lesko of Arizona (who is largely selected due to her being female as well as a reliable conservative vote, perhaps in response to criticism of her predecessor, Elise Stefanik of New York, when the latter replaced Liz Cheney in the same role in 2021) nominates Kevin McCarthy as the Republicans' candidate for Speaker of the House. The House Democratic Caucus Chairman, Pete Aguilar of California, nominates Hakeem Jeffries as their choice for Speaker afterwards, but it's all a wash as McCarthy is elected Speaker with unanimous Republican support. Upon taking office, McCarthy declares "today marks the beginning of a new chapter for America, one where freedom is at the forefront of what we do". With that, McCarthy launches a comprehensive legislative effort, known as "100 Days of Freedom", that aims to undo several of Biden's and the previous Congress's initiatives, while also prioritizing key Republican initiatives with an aim for Biden to "meet them in the middle", and rescinded the remaining COVID restrictions from the pandemic period, meaning that masks are no longer required anywhere on the grounds of the Capitol, among other things.

In the Senate, the transition is comparatively less dramatic as ten new senators are sworn in. Sen. John Cornyn officially swears in the new session of the Senate with a vow to "continue our work from where we left off with Mr. McConnell two years ago, and begin governing with a true check on the power of a President who has left us in uncharted waters". He also vows to extensively vet Biden's new pick for the Supreme Court to ensure that we have a judiciary that remains committed to "defending the rule of law instead of legislating from the bench", vowing an "aggressive and through review" for the nominee but stopping short of attempting to leave the confirmation hanging, as McConnell did with Obama's pick, then-DC Circuit Justice Merrick Garland, in 2016.

Among the notable committee chairs in the House include Vern Buchanan of Florida on Ways and Means, Kay Granger of Texas on Appropriations, Stefanik on Education and the Workforce, Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington (another former Conference Chair) on Energy and Commerce, John Katko of New York (who survived a primary challenge after voting to impeach Trump) on Homeland Security, Chris Stewart of Utah on Intelligence, and (perhaps most significantly) Jim Jordan of Ohio on Judiciary - where Jordan promises investigations into the Biden Administration if not impeachment inquiries into Biden himself. In the Senate, Susan Collins of Maine is the first Republican women to chair Appropriations, while Jim Risch and Roger Wicker reclaim their respective chairmanships on Foreign Relations and Commerce, Science and Transportation, and Lindsey Graham returns to the Judiciary chairmanship.

January 12, 2023
REPORT: BIDEN NOMINATES PICK FOR SUPREME COURT
On Thursday, President Biden nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson, circuit judge for the U.S. Court of Appeals' District of Columbia Circuit, to replace Stephen Breyer on the Supreme Court. Many Democratic Senators praise the selection of Jackson as a "historic moment for our great nation", with Biden remarking on Jackson's passion for criminal justice reform within her rulings. The selection of Jackson is also remarkable for two reasons: the fact that she clerked for Breyer from 1999 to 2000, and the fact that she was raised in Miami, where she graduated from high school in 1988 and won a national debate contest, alluding not only Biden's intention to have a ready-made replacement to handle appeals from the 11th Circuit should Clarence Thomas retire or die, but also potential future direction with regards to a potential expansion of the high court that would involve a circuit exclusive to Florida and Puerto Rico (likely to be based in Miami).

Predictably, many Republicans come out in opposition to Jackson, calling her nomination "a setback for our Constitution and the rule of law", with most Republican committee members including Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, John Neely Kennedy, Ben Sasse, Mike Lee, Tom Cotton, Marsha Blackburn and newly elected Adam Laxalt among the Senators coming out in opposition, despite some praise for Jackson's handling of drug cases. However, there is no indication that Jackson's nomination is in danger, and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham has already indicated that he will grant a hearing for Jackson's nomination "as soon as possible". (Historical note: Graham voted to confirm both Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan for SCOTUS when they were nominated by President Obama.) Two other senior Senators, former Chairman Chuck Grassley and Senate Majority Leader John Cornyn, have not indicated which direction they will go in, likely indicating that the Jackson confirmation hearings will be more of a coronation versus the past nominating controversy with Merrick Garland, who never even received a hearing for his ill-fated nomination. UPDATE (1/26/22): Justice Stephen Breyer's retirement has come over 10 months earlier than I predicted in this TL, so while I still think Ketanji Brown Jackson is the likely choice for Breyer's vacancy, I'm not going to talk about SCOTUS, let alone how the votes go, until after the new justice is sworn in.

February 12, 2023
TRUMP UNDECIDED ON 2024 BID IN PRE-SUPER BOWL INTERVIEW
In an interview with Fox News Sunday host Bret Baier that aired on Sunday before Fox's coverage of Super Bowl LVII, former President Donald Trump confirms that he is undecided on whether or not he wants to return to the White House. Trump indicated that if he were not to run for President, his supporters would be "very disappointed" and "may not even show up to vote", and acknowledged "wide and overwhelming support for me to run again". As expected, Trump continued to insist that the 2020 election was stolen, lambasted the efforts of U.S. Attorneys as well as New York Attorney General Tish James to probe into his private business affairs, and called the results of the investigation into the breach of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 "the biggest sham investigation in the history of the United States".

At the same time, Trump also acknowledged that "there are many, many more America First patriots serving now in Congress and running as well, and almost all of the bad actors who voted to falsely impeach me are gone - especially Liz Cheney, who is now trolling on CNN+." Despite some rumors that Trump reportedly "____ing hates Ron DeSantis", the former President exalted the Florida Governor as "a major reason why I moved to Florida" and "the best Governor in America", while also exhibiting praise for former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a number of other conservative Senators and Governors, and "the many new faces in Congress who got elected on an America First platform". He also acknowledged that his former Vice President Mike Pence "doesn't really see eye to eye with me", that Nikki Haley "gets too much credit for my strong support for Israel", and mocked Chris Christie's potential bid for President by quipping "did ABC bust his tiny little balls?" And while acknowledging that the NFL is "a little more enjoyable since nobody hears of that Colin guy anymore", he admits the NBA will be "a much, much, much more improved product when that total loser LeBron James is gone". James retorted on Twitter by tweeting "Stick to failed presidencies! At least I've still got my mind...", while Christie remarked "he's still the same old Trump, same old stale grievances" on the following morning's Good Morning America.

So far, the presidential field remains virtually undecided as potential candidates wait on word of what both Trump and Biden intend to do. After Democrats lost control of Congress the previous year, Biden is mulling his options. Despite achievements on infrastructure, restored foreign policy relations, healthcare, climate change and efforts to combat COVID-19, the President is faced with a slew of challenges that have undermined his standing with voters. The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, which resulted in its takeover by a hostile Taliban regime, has drawn calls for his impeachment by House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan and others, and with the national debt set to hit as high as $51 trillion in 2026, Biden's penchant for stimulus to offset COVID economic tailwinds has worn thin with the new Congress which has made deficit reduction, entitlement reform and "cutting economic red tape" top priorities.

Likewise with Trump, polling has indicated that if he were to enter the presidential sweepstakes for 2024, he would be heavily favored to win the nomination with few (if any) likely challengers capable of competing toe-to-toe with the former President. However, Trump also acknowledges that his age (he would 78 if elected in 2024, older than Biden when he was first elected in 2020) would be a hindrance, but also acknowledges the election of many Republicans with similar stylings to him since his 2016 presidential run. While many historians acknowledge Trump as among the worst Presidents in American history, many top-tier Republicans nonetheless would choose not to run if Trump were to seek a second, nonconsecutive term (a fact that is not unprecedented given it happened before with Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1884 and 1892) as polling showed any potential presidential run against Trump to be an uphill climb. However, one Republican is not waiting for Trump to decide to declare a run...

February 22, 2023
FORMER GOV. LARRY HOGAN ANNOUNCES 2024 PRESIDENTIAL BID
On Thursday, what would have been George Washington's 291st birthday, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan declared his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election as a Republican. A two-time cancer survivor and the first Republican to be reelected since 1954 to his position, Hogan enjoyed strong approval ratings throughout his governorship, and served as Chairman of the National Governors Association during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. "As governor, I fought to bring reform to a state that badly needed it, worked to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in ways that benefited our public health and our economy, battled unions who sought to undermine our schools and our businesses, and stood for truth when Americans needed to hear it. As your President, I will work to change America for the better, and the people of this country will deserve nothing less."

Hogan is the first Republican to enter the presidential race of note, and his candidacy has drawn praise from many pundits who view Hogan instantly as "the great moderate hope" for the GOP. However, his candidacy is likely to go nowhere given his strong opposition from within Trumpworld, and even from some more conservative detractors of the former President. But Hogan has indicated so far that he is here to stay, though it is too soon to declare whether or not he is a strong contender, at least compared to other potential candidates.

[SaintStan86]

So far, the presidential race has its first key candidate in former Gov. Larry Hogan on the Republican side. But Biden still has to process some unfinished business before making a decision and Trump, while reportedly having had numerous in-person and teleconferenced meetings with potential GOP rivals, has yet to decide if he wants to run like many are expecting and want him to do. But first, let's get through the April showers...

March 10, 2023
FORMER GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE ENTERS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie announced that he will run for the Republican nomination for President in 2024. In his announcement, made on the steps of his house in the New York City suburb of Mendham Township, Christie states "More than ever, there is a need for leadership that unites our country and states in clear terms what we stand for as a nation. As Governor of the great state of New Jersey, I did exactly that, bringing tax relief to New Jersey families, reforming our broken pension system, and standing up to bureaucrats who killed jobs and economic growth. As your next President, I will take the lessons learned as a conservative Governor in a blue state and apply them across this great nation!"

Critics responded to news of Christie's presidential bid by pointing to the lane closure scandal at the George Washington Bridge, and especially to his low approval ratings in his final two years as Governor, with critics arguing that Christie "spent more time cozying up to Donald Trump than catering to the needs of New Jerseyans" and others questioning whether or not Christie's efforts to combat opioid abuse both in his state and on Trump's task force on opioid abuse (which he chaired in his final months as Governor) had any success with the opioid abuse issues having reemerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. Some conservative critics also criticized him for his bait-and-switch on the former President, having once been "quite loyal to Trump" before distancing from him after the events of January 6th. Christie responded by saying, "I have done my very best to work with Donald Trump to make his presidency a success, and there are many great things that came out of it." While acknowledging that he privately met with Trump before making his announcement, Christie stated, "I have really no ill will towards Trump, but I do think that America could benefit from a President who has none of the question marks some are definitely going to have about him should Trump be the nominee". He also denounced conspiracy theories surrounding the 2020 election, arguing "these claims should have no legs to stand on, and any future nominee for President should have nothing to do with them whatsoever".

March 21, 2023
SENATE CONFIRMS SUPREME COURT NOMINEE
After a somewhat contentious set of hearings in the Senate Judiciary Committee, the full Senate voted to confirm Biden's Supreme Court nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson, making her the first Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court. Jackson was confirmed out of the Committee 13-9, with Republican Chairman Lindsey Graham of South Carolina (who also voted to confirm Obama nominees Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan), former Chairman Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Thom Tillis of North Carolina joining the committee's ten Democrats in voting Jackson's nomination out of committee. The final vote to confirm was 55-45 with all 46 Democrats (as well as the two New England independents who caucus with the Democrats) joined by former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, moderate Susan Collins of Maine, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia in addition to the three aforementioned Judiciary Committee Republicans who voted Jackson out of committee.

Notable among the Nay votes included the Senate's two Black Republicans, Tim Scott of South Carolina and Herschel Walker of Georgia, both of Florida's GOP Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott (despite KBJ hailing from Miami), freshman Rich Ashooh of New Hampshire (the only Nay vote from a state that voted for Biden), and Mitt Romney of Utah, with some speculating that Romney may have cast a Nay vote to appeal to conservatives as he is facing a potential primary challenge from the right due to his voting to convict Trump twice. Hours after being confirmed, Jackson is sworn in at the White House in a private ceremony that is largely devoid of masks, leading conservative pundits to mock Biden with quips like "So much for 'follow the science' and 'social distancing'..." as Jackson takes her seat amongst the eight other Justices and enters the history books. UPDATE (1/26/22): Breyer is retiring, and his replacement will have been sworn in the year prior.

April 20, 2023
THIRD DEMOCRAT ANNOUNCES RETIREMENT FROM SENATE
Less than a month after voting to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced that he would not be seeking reelection in 2024. The most conservative Democrat in the Senate and a critical swing vote throughout the Biden presidency, 75-year-old Manchin cited "a desire to spend more time with my family including most especially my grandkids". Manchin's decision not to seek reelection ultimately leads to his seat becoming one of the best pickup opportunities for Republicans, with Manchin's 2018 opponent state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey already indicating he will be running for the now open seat, as is Rep. Alex Mooney of the 2nd District in northern and eastern West Virginia.

Manchin is the third Democrat to announce they will be retiring from the Senate in as many weeks, joining Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, who announced her retirement in early April, and Tom Carper of Delaware, who announced on April 11th that his current fourth term will be his last. In Michigan, former Governor Gretchen Whitmer has expressed interest in running for Stabenow's Senate seat, while two-time Senate nominee John James is making a third bid for Senate after losing to Stabenow in 2018 and Peters in 2020 - both in hugely competitive races that would have been won had the national political winds favored the GOP then. Meanwhile in Delaware the state's lone Congresswoman, Lisa Blunt Rochester, is running to succeed Carper and has already attracted support from both President Biden and Vice President Harris; Republicans have not yet settled on a candidate even though they certainly have no intention to put it on the back burner, but the party is rumored to be more focused on Blunt Rochester's congressional seat and the Governor's race - which are both expected to be heavily contested.

Amongst other Democrats, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has indicated she will seek reelection, while also being open to the possibility of running for President if Biden decides to retire; she otherwise has spoken against challenging Biden, instead choosing to "nudge Biden to the left". Two other Democrats considered vulnerable, Bob Menendez of New Jersey and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, will seek reelection despite what will likely amount to competitive general election battles. On the Republican side, Rick Scott is running for reelection to a second term, with former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy entering the race against Scott shortly after her third term in Congress ended, while Utah Sen. Mitt Romney has decided to also seek a second term, but is very likely to face a primary challenge with former Congressman-turned-Fox News host Jason Chaffetz reportedly taking a break from Fox News to explore a run against Romney.

Notable undecideds on the Democratic side include 89-year-old Dianne Feinstein of California, who intends to make her decision known at her 90th birthday party to be held in her native San Francisco in June, Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, whose seat is expected to be a top target for Republicans in 2024, elderly incumbents Mazie Hirono of Hawaii and Ben Cardin of Maryland, and the Senate's two independent Senators, Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. On the Republican side, much of the speculation centers on Josh Hawley of Missouri, who may consider running for President if Donald Trump decides to pass on the race, and Ted Cruz of Texas, who is leaning towards honoring his pledge to serve two terms in the Senate and not seek reelection, potentially opening the door to a highly competitive open seat in the Lone Star State. As for a presidential run, that may come down to Trump as well. Or not...

April 25, 2023
SEN. TED CRUZ ANNOUNCES 2024 PRESIDENTIAL BID
On Tuesday, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) announced that he will be running for President in 2024 as a Republican. Despite the fact that Donald Trump has not made an announcement yet with regards to whether or not he would run again in 2024, Cruz has indicated that he isn't waiting for the former President to make a decision, and let it be known that his run for President is not "a slap in the face against Trump". "Donald Trump has done many great things for America and has reenergized conservatives like never before," Cruz remarks. "However, America is truly at a crossroads, and with the Democrats engaging in revenge politics like we've never seen before, it is critical that we have a Republican Party that is ready to stand up for America. My intention, even if I'm not successful in the Republican primary, is to encourage Trump or any other Republican who wins our nomination to continue to carry the promise of a free and strong America."

Cruz's decision is met with mixed reviews. Some Trump supporters were reportedly dismayed by Cruz's decision, with one source boasting about "the return of Lyin' Ted", while others welcomed him while continuing to assert "this is still Trump's party, and if Ted Cruz is going to crash it, he might as well crash himself". Still, Cruz's decision to enter the race, making him the third Republican of note in the presidential election, is an indication that the race will not go on without a fight, and pundits point to Cruz's referring to his stronger performance against Trump in states with caucuses or closed primaries in his speech as evidence that Trump, especially with the 2024 Republican primaries expected to have more stringent primary and caucus processes, could be forced to run to his right himself just to "put away his competition and avoid competitive state battles, if at all".

As for the Senate, as expected Cruz has chosen to go "all in on the White House", leaving open his Senate seat for what is expected to be a hugely expensive affair. On the Republican side, Congressman Dan Crenshaw of Houston has already launched an exploratory committee for a Senate run, while two other members from the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, Lance Gooden of Dallas and Roger Williams from west of Fort Worth (district also extends into Arlington) are also thinking of jumping into the race as well. Austin-based conservative Congressman (and former Chief of Staff to Cruz) Chip Roy, whose district stretches from southwest Austin to north San Antonio and backs up to the Hill Country, is also rumored to be throwing his hat into the race along with Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick, former Congressman Will Hurd, Infowars host and conspiracy theorist Harrison Smith and former Republican Party of Texas Chairman Allen West.

On the Democratic side, former HUD Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro is exploring a run, as is astronaut Scott Kelly (whose identical twin Mark was recently elected to a full Senate term in Arizona) and Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins. Former Congressman Beto O'Rourke, after three unsuccessful campaigns (against Cruz in 2018, for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 and against Gov. Greg Abbott in 2022), has decided against running for the seat, instead choosing to spend more time with his family while he ponders his future options beyond 2024, though he has not ruled out potentially running as a running mate if Biden chooses to retire.

[SaintStan86]

Before I move on to the next parts of the TL, here are some other current events that have happened in the world between January and April...

MEANWHILE, IN OTHER NEWS...

• In January 2023, Facebook decided not to continue with its ban on Donald Trump posting on his personal page. Since his return to Facebook, Trump calls Biden "the worst President in our lifetimes", lambasts the media for "spending more time talking about my taxes than focusing on Hunter Biden's laptop", calls the Republican takeover of Congress "a great thing for America, even better because that loser Liz Cheney isn't in it!" and asks "when is Beijing Blinken going to wake up and not play dead?". He also calls his new Facebook act "liberating" and "allows me to communicate more with AMERICA FIRST PATRIOTS than Twitter ever will". He still encourages his followers to continue to follow him on his own website, "because you never know when your freedoms will be taken away from you".
• A mass shooting in February at a suburban Atlanta mall leaves 11 dead and 19 injured. The suspect, who reportedly bought his weapon over the internet without a background check, had a mental illness and had written cryptic messages on Reddit implying that pedophiles were coming after him because of his association with QAnon, and also berated "spoiled brat teenage girls who rejected me"; several of the victims were teenagers. Despite condemnations from Gov. Brian Kemp and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, among others, another Georgia politician, Rep. Lucy McBath (a House Judiciary Committee member and staunch gun control advocate whose former district was the site of the shooting) introduces legislation to require online background checks and reintroduces an assault weapons ban. As expected, the legislation stalls in the Republican-controlled House, while the Senate version authored by Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff is bottled up in committee after Sen. Ben Sasse (whose home state of Nebraska had a similar mass shooting in 2007) lambasts the legislation as "another straw man excuse to undermine our Constitution instead of dealing with the real threat of violent criminals whose own poor mental state is responsible for these crimes in the first place" in committee, accusing Ossoff of "taking advantage of people's pain and suffering to radically alter our Constitution". The move leads many to speculate whether or not Sasse is angling for a 2024 presidential bid, which Sasse is quick to tamp down as "merely a pipe dream". Unsurprisingly, a Fox News notification blast relating to Sasse reads, "NO MORE 'MR. NICE GUY'", while Biden responds to the stalemate by issuing an Executive Order banning online firearms sales "until further notice".
• Russia enters into an economic partnership with China, with intentions to gain access into Taiwan for trade purposes. The move is seen by the eastern powers as a strategic move to counter the influence of the Western World in the post-COVID economy. Not surprisingly, NATO is unimpressed by the two countries' actions, and President Biden expressed concern that this could give China free rein to invade Taiwan, but stops short of intervening in the matter or calling for Taiwanese independence. Republicans are even more unimpressed, with former Ambassador Nikki Haley condemning the Biden White House for being "soft on China" and Sean Hannity quipping "Apparently (Secretary of State) Tony Blinken must be having a hard time marketing his music here, might as well explore the possibility of an all-Mandarin album since he probably won't have a job soon".
• NASA awards a multi-billion dollar contract to SpaceX for further missions involving its Artemis program as well as future missions to both the Moon and eventually Mars, with intentions to land astronauts on the Moon by 2025, and with all missions to be launched out of the Kennedy Space Center through a deal arranged by NASA Administrator (and former U.S. Senator from Florida) Bill Nelson and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk; Nelson's involvement in securing the missions for Cape Canaveral was viewed as a preemptive strike to prevent NASA from awarding the mission launches to sites in other states such as the Johnson Space Center and Elon Musk's own base in Texas, as well as other NASA facilities in California and Mississippi. Musk has vowed to have a mission to Mars ready to go by 2028, but stops short of providing further details for the moment.
• The major award shows of the early year, including the Golden Globes, the Grammy Awards and the Academy Awards, all take place at their normal intervals and venues for the first time since 2020. The Grammys had been postponed twice due to the pandemic, while the Golden Globes (which along with the Oscars also had to deal with COVID) was marred over membership diversity concerns that resulted in NBC and others boycotting the 2022 ceremony.
• The Congressional Budget Office reports that the United States is at risk of default on its massive national debt of over $30 trillion. Republicans in the House begin pushing for a Balanced Budget Amendment, with several state legislatures (most if not all of them Republican) passing resolutions in favor of the proposed amendment, but falling short of the two-thirds required to pass an amendment. Grassroots activists across the country begin phoning their Congressmen and Senators, urging them to support the amendment as well as an audit into the Federal Reserve, which becomes a "third rail" of sorts in Republican primaries. According to one survey, the national debt has become one of the most important issues in the presidential election for Republicans, with as many as 15 percent calling it their top issue.

And now, fast forward to the last Saturday of April 2023...

April 29, 2023
TRUMP, OTHER REPUBLICANS GATHER AT MAR-A-LAGO
It was a standing room only crowd on Saturday night at Donald Trump's Mar-A-Lago residence, as the former President threw a congratulatory dinner with donors who helped to reelect Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio in the 2022 midterms, along with three-quarters of the state's congressional delegation and all of its statewide elected posts. Titled "Florida is Beautiful!", the bash was a celebration in true MAGA form - with Trump super-fan and musician Joy Villa performing the national anthem and providing some light background music as the diners feted and danced through the night. Also in attendance were numerous Republican politicians and donors, including some potential 2024 presidential candidates. Most notable amongst the guests was former Vice President Mike Pence, who happened to embrace the former President who even remarked "you ready to do this again, Mike?". This sort of embrace was viewed as surprising to many; following Pence's vote to certify the 2020 presidential results for Joe Biden hours after a violent insurrection in which the Senate itself had been breached by supporters of Trump, the two reportedly had lost contact with one another, with Trump reporting to have strongly urged Pence not to run for President in 2024.

Indeed, Pence is still viewed as an enigmatic figure in Trump circles - with some expressing strong support for the former Vice President, while others viewed his vote to certify the 2020 results as "traitorous". Others in attendance in addition to DeSantis, Rubio and Pence were Governors Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, Sean Duffy of Wisconsin and Kristi Noem of South Dakota, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Senators Rick Scott of Florida, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Josh Hawley of Missouri, Fox News's trifecta of primetime hosts (Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham), Newsmax host Greg Kelly, talk radio hosts Dan Bongino and James Golden (known as producer Bo Snerdley on the Rush Limbaugh show), and several members of Congress including Jim Jordan of Ohio, Elise Stefanik of New York, Matt Rosendale of Montana, Dan Crenshaw and Lance Gooden of Texas, and several members from Florida including Byron Donalds, Matt Gaetz, Vern Buchanan and Brian Mast. Also attending was former Congressman Devin Nunes of California, who now heads Trump's media firm, TMTG, and its social network, Truth Social. The highlight of the night was a birthday celebration for Trump's wife Melania, who turned 53 the following Wednesday.

While some viewed the gathering as a warmup for Trump's eventual 2024 presidential run, the former President is quick to shake off these rumors, quipping "I'm not running for President...yet."

[SaintStan86]

Before I continue on, I shall mention that Nikki Haley is going to be in this TL, and she will have a rather valid explanation as to why she wasn't at Mar-a-Lago - which may have something to do with comments she made following 1/6 + an apparent desire to bring forth a more traditional foreign policy approach in the Republican primary (somewhere midway between what Trump and George W. Bush had in mind) versus the sort of approach that Trump took, all while keeping a max level of Trump's MAGA stylings. If she does run for President in this TL (and perhaps IRL as well), this can be expected. It also will have something to do with Israel, which may explain how some of the key chess players in this presidential sweepstakes will turn out.

Also, I am correct to say that Johnson and Thune are both running again, and it's safe to say Mike Rounds will likely fall into the "less Trumpian" category as far as endorsements are concerned given his recent comments about the election (which led to a rather lengthy rebuke from Trump), though as he is a more establishmentarian Republican compared to even Thune I don't really expect him to have much of an impact compared to say Kristi Noem.

There will be changes in Michigan and North Carolina with the House projections I originally posted though - Rashida Tlaib is now running in Brenda Lawrence's current seat, which is actually two-thirds Tlaib's even though it contains the fail-safe Dem stronghold of Southfield as the only non-Wayne County portion; the Wayne bulwark contains areas like west Detroit, Westland and Dearborn - the latter of which is obvious considering that city's large Arab American presence, along with some more moderately Republican areas like Livonia). MI-13 is now an open seat, and as that field builds I will eventually make a new projection there other than the fact that it is heavily Dem and will stay so. NC-06 may also get an update as well because a notable former American Idol star named Clay Aiken is in that race now. Still betting on Wiley Nickel, but that could change given Aiken's star power + the prospect of Aiken becoming the first out LGBT congressman from the South, even though the Triangle - the heart of Tobacco Road - is as ACC as it gets.

Now, let the April showers give way to May flowers...

May 1, 2023
BIDEN UNSURE ABOUT SECOND TERM, LEANING TOWARDS POSSIBLE RETIREMENT
Following his latest medical checkup, which has often become a source of much speculation especially from his detractors, President Biden once again contends that he remains fit enough to carry out the duties expected of the presidency. Asides from some nerve issues with his feet and spine as well as acid reflux - all issues addressed in his examination from 2022, his physicians confirm that Biden appears "quite healthy" for his age, with whatever neurological issues do exist largely being what some can expect for an 80-year-old President.

But while the President appears to be healthy, from an organizational perspective Biden's future appears cloudy. The transition of the COVID-19 pandemic to an endemic - while expected at this point - has negated the need for any future economic stimulus, even to bail out failing companies or industries, with the national debt starting to emerge as an increasingly important issue with especially younger voters, entitlements already further diminished by years of diversions from the Social Security pool, and two minor government shutdowns caused by failures to agree on raising debt ceilings while the nation's credit ratings are threatened with the risk of default. Biden's economic policy outside of the budget has also been viewed as a mixed bag, with many comparing it to a "third term of Barack Obama". Indeed, many of the Obama hallmarks - tax increases on corporations and the wealthy, a larger safety net to address health care reform, efforts to combat income inequality, and gradual shifts towards renewable energy sources - are largely permeated within the Biden economic policy prescription. While the stock market remains relatively high and the economy has largely recovered from pandemic lows, inflation also continues to be a major issue especially for middle- and working-class Americans, and many key parts of Biden's domestic policy - increasing minimum wage and job training requirements, student loan debt forgiveness, strict clean energy investments and (most significantly) election reform - have been all but scuttled in the new Republican Congress, and with Republicans widely expected to maintain their House majority and make further gains in the Senate, Biden finds himself at a crossroads. The fact that Biden and Senate Democrats ultimately succeeded in changing filibuster rules, only to see them scuttled in the eyes of SCOTUS, also adds to Biden's uncertainty to deliver domestically for any potential reelection.

On foreign policy, the Biden Doctrine has largely revolved around restoring whatever alliances Biden argued were "damaged" under Donald Trump, with most of his foreign policy also drawing comparisons to Obama's as well. Indeed, Biden has sought to reassert American ties to NATO as well as the Paris Agreement, and made cybersecurity (including a nuclear submarine pact with Australia and the UK, AUKUS) and vaccine equity priorities over his two years, all while building on his years of experience on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when he served in the Senate. While refusing to negotiate with Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and taking a hard line in support of Israel, Biden has also had some major blunders. For the most part, Biden has failed to restore the sort of deal with Iran that Obama championed, while Russia, China and North Korea continue to be overt aggressors for which Biden's approach to them has been relatively hands-off (with even Biden's toughest words being viewed as "lukewarm" in comparison to Trump's by some critics).

However, dragging down Biden's foreign policy strengths - and those of his reelection chances - was the quagmire in Afghanistan; while Biden's decision to pull American troops out was seen as a "long time coming", the lack of an adequate backup presence to counter the Taliban's takeover proved to be damaging to Biden's reputation both amongst American citizens and global leaders alike and a colossal failure for NATO, with Biden's approach even becoming fodder for impeachment talk by the new Congress. The lingering crisis at the Mexican border, which ultimately played a hand in Biden's declining support in border communities particularly in Texas, and the social impact associated with it has also impacted Biden's record with Trump, conservative commentators and even some mainstream media sources calling Biden's handling of the border crisis one of his biggest failures. Indeed, both Afghanistan and the border crisis are considered generally to be failures for Biden on the scale of Iran and the inflation crisis with regards to Jimmy Carter.

All said, while many argue that Biden never really had a chance to deliver domestically and internationally due to the initially divided, if Democratic-leaning, state of the Congress, the new Republican majorities of the latter part of his term, and a SCOTUS dominated by Republican nominees with only three reliable liberal votes, Biden feels at ease with the decisions his administration has made, in keeping with promise to be "an American President" despite his lifelong profile as a mainstream Democrat. Though he has been expected to run for a second term at various points, Biden also suggested in the past to aides that he would only serve a single term or "as long as it takes to restore respect for American democracy in the world and heal whatever wounds Donald Trump created". Sources say that inflection point could be coming soon, and speculation surrounding Biden's future becomes the top story for at least another week or two.

[SaintStan86]

May 10, 2023
BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT BIDEN ANNOUNCES HE WILL NOT SEEK A SECOND TERM
After more than a week of speculation, in a televised primetime speech from the Oval Office, President Biden announced on Wednesday night that he will not be seeking reelection to a second term in 2024. While the President's one term has been viewed as mediocre and low in delivered expectations compared to previous Presidents, Biden began by saying "Throughout these last two years, my duty and commitment to serving the American people has never been stronger. The work we have accomplished together, helping to defeat a terrible scourge of a pandemic, repairing race relations here at home and healing the wounds of a divided nation, and restoring democracy and America's reputation on the world stage, is far more than what I expected to accomplish as your President. For that, I am more than eternally grateful to be given the opportunity to serve as an American President."

Biden continued by saying, "There is unfinished business, and lots of it, but I am confident that America's best days are straight ahead and there are many great leaders who are ready to step up and defend democracy from the harsh rule of authoritarian thugs and bullies - both here at home and around the world - who seek to undermine it. When I spoke to my closest aides and friends, my promise was to serve one term with the promise of restoring America, and if I wanted to seek a second term, they would be the first to know, and I have already made that decision to them with a happy smile, hearty handshakes and full confidence. To that extent, because you deserve to hear from me more than anyone else, I am announcing that I will not be a candidate for reelection in 2024. Being your President has been the greatest honor of my life, and the lessons I have learned, the memories I have made, and the successes I have accomplished are the little things that will be remembered as time marches on." While health and age is rumored to have been a factor, Biden also feels that he has delivered most everything he has wanted to deliver in his time as President, and cited a desire to spend more time with his family (including his grandchildren in particular) in Delaware.

Most of the former Presidents expressed gratitude to Biden and wished him well on a happy retirement, with the notable but unsurprising exception of Donald Trump who remarked "I still can't believe he chose to retire - was looking forward to BEATING HIM AGAIN in 2024, but obviously, when even Sleepy Joe knows he's had enough, he knows very well he's had enough" and jested "Congrats on your retirement, hopefully in time you'll be seen by others as better than whatever loser seeks to replace you, unless a Republican - especially me - wins of course!" Speculation also has begun to swirl as to which Democrats will seek to replace Biden, with most of the speculation centering around Vice President Kamala Harris (who is arguably seen as the frontrunner to succeed Biden on the Democratic side). The rest of the potential field is uncertain, but four particular brand name Democrats: Senator and 2020 candidate Cory Booker of New Jersey, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former First Lady Michelle Obama, and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York have all ruled out runs for President. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker once again declared he will NOT run for President either as well, as has former HUD Secretary and 2020 candidate Julián Castro, who remains committed to running for the open U.S. Senate seat in Texas being left behind by presidential candidate Ted Cruz. However, one Democrat who previously rebuffed a presidential bid to initially focus on "nudging" Biden leftward has decided to jump in...

May 13, 2023
SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
Just days after President Biden announced he would not be seeking reelection, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren announced her candidacy for President, becoming the first notable Democrat to enter the presidential race since Biden's announcement. Though she will be 75 in 2024, which would make her not much older than Trump was in 2016, and expresses regret about the failures of her 2020 presidential run, Warren is running with an aim to fill the progressive void left by Bernie Sanders' decision not to run for President again after his own two failed attempts to win the Democratic nomination, coming in second to more center-left "neoliberal" candidates in both attempts. As expected, Warren builds her campaign around unabashed stances on such progressive causes as increasing the federal minimum wage, Medicare for All, a Green New Deal and reining in the power of corporations and "the 1%". In addition to running for President, she will also continue to run for reelection to the Senate as well, with petitions in Massachusetts already circulating for Warren to run in both the presidential primary and her Class I Senate seat.

Following her announcement, the RNC is quick to blast Warren. As Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel writes, "With President Biden now choosing to retire instead of run on his own record, the Democrats have proven that the only way to win the nomination is to run to the far left. Elizabeth Warren has been the Grand Dame of far-left socialism for practically her entire Senate career, and her presidential candidacy is just the tip of the iceberg. There is only way to stop the Socialist Warren agenda, and that is to elect Republicans at all levels from the courthouse to the White House in 2024."

May 18, 2023
POTENTIAL REPUBLICANS TO TRUMP: MAKE UP YOUR MIND
With President Biden no longer running for reelection, Republicans have started to put pressure on former President Donald Trump to make a decision as to whether or not he will run to pursue a comeback. Despite widespread speculation that Trump would make a "revenge tour of sorts against Biden" and polling seen as favorable towards him both in the Republican primary and in general polling against Biden, Trump has not made a firm decision yet as to whether or not he would attempt to make a comeback. Some suggest his age may be a factor, while others have suggested the possibility that Trump could potentially blow it for Republicans because of perceptions over his "lack of moral authority". There are also some who feel that Trump, due to increasing disputes with various Republican members of Congress and even conservative media hosts like Sean Hannity over the results of the 2020 election, may consider bowing out both for the good of the GOP and to avoid giving a direct path to Kamala Harris to snag the presidency (and with it, potentially turn 2024 into a redux of 2020).

Perhaps the one factor as to whether or not Trump will consider running again, according to insiders of the former President, may be whether or not the Republican bench is as committed and loyal to "the America First agenda" and conservatism as a whole. Indeed, one major reason Trump ran for President in 2016 and quickly rose as the leading contender for the GOP then was due to his "outsider" label in contrast to such established Republican names as Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Marco Rubio, among others. Indeed, since leaving office, Trump has used subsequent elections as a yardstick for measuring not only whether or not GOP incumbents and challengers are principled enough conservatives, but whether or not they are loyal to him and his supporters. Many of the freshmen in the new Congress indeed are Republicans who largely either won on the basis of their conservative convictions, stressed commitment to Trump's agenda, or both, and some even had past associations with the Trump administration, while most of the ten who voted to impeach Trump lost reelection or chose to retire, for instance.

But time is clearly of the essence, and many potential Republican candidates (or at least their closest advisors) including Trump alums like Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Mike Pompeo, established conservative names like Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott, Josh Hawley and Tim Scott, Trump-skeptical figures like Ben Sasse and Adam Kinzinger, conservative media figures like Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, and even more recent names like Glenn Youngkin, Sean Duffy and Mike Lindell are all in a holding pattern to a large extent. Whether or not the field will grow beyond the three big names that have already declared - Chris Christie, Ted Cruz and Larry Hogan - all comes down to Trump. With the Iowa State Fair and its straw poll coming up in August, candidates are waiting for Trump to decide before they make their call.

[SaintStan86]

Before I continue on, I shall make mention of two congressional updates:

CO-07: First off, in Colorado, Ed Perlmutter is now retiring from Congress instead of facing what would have looked like a surprise loss. His 7th District, which now stretches from the western suburbs of Denver in Jefferson County out to exurban and rural areas well to the southwest, is going to be a barn-burner. Expect loaded primaries on both sides.

IN-09: This is somewhat surprising, but you got to give props to Trey Hollingsworth for choosing to honor his term limit pledge (though I would have preferred six house terms max to the four he voted for and three he pledged; he is right about two terms in the Senate though). He has also hoped that lobbying reform would pass in an op-ed he wrote in the Indianapolis Star, I believe. He had about a half-dozen Democrats (albeit not of the brand name kind) lining up to challenge him, but Republicans are definitely going to hang on in this semi-rural seat that is now explicitly focused on the southeast Indiana suburbs of Louisville and the small, if growing, western suburbs/exurbs of Cincinnati, with Bloomington as perhaps the lone Dem blueberry in a sea of Clamato. A far cry from the swing seat that once sent Lee Hamilton - of all persons - to Congress. No word on who his replacement will be, but I can imagine his replacement being well-funded, maybe with some legislative experience, and certainly "America First".

Now, back to your regularly scheduled program:

May 22, 2023
TRUMP: "YOU WILL BE THE FIRST TO KNOW"
After days of clarion calls from Republican presidential hopefuls and supporters to make a decision, former President Donald Trump announced that he will make a decision next month on whether or not he wants to run for President again in 2024, setting a press conference at Mar-a-Lago for June 14th, a Wednesday which also happens to be not only the designated national holiday of Flag Day, but also Trump's 77th birthday. While he stopped short of announcing he would run again, he did give out three clues: that he will run as a Republican, that he will not make an endorsement right away if he does not run, and that if he does run he will be open to "crushing my haters in all those meaningless debates". While continuing to air an aura of confidence in his chances of running, he also mentions "the big difference is we have so many great people that are committed to America First, and a lot less of the same losers who hated me and wished I would just go away." Indeed, speculators argue that if Trump were not to run, it may have to do with Congress and state houses having moved more sharply in his direction since his 2016 triumph, with fewer Republicans fixated on crossing Trump serving in office.

As for the other Republican candidates, the jockeying has already begun. Chris Christie has already set up a campaign headquarters in Des Moines and has planned a full slate of events for the summer, while Mike Pence has made appearances at a few county Republican meetings in the state. Nikki Haley, who drew significant attention for apparently snubbing Trump at his Mar-a-Lago gathering the previous month, appeared at a function with Gov. Kim Reynolds who Haley endorsed in 2022, and Josh Hawley spoke to a Students for Life club at Iowa State University on the value of "adoption over abortion". Ben Sasse also draws attention for numerous social media posts from other users showing his vehicle crossing Omaha's Mormon Bridge over the Missouri River into Iowa, but the Nebraska U.S. Senator merely states that he is just "doing some vacationing there" without any mention of political activity.

May 23, 2023
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS LAUNCHES 2024 BID
Nearly two weeks after President Biden announced he would not seek reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris launched her presidential campaign with an introductory video on her personal YouTube page. Promising "a transformed America more united, driven and passionate than ever before", the Vice President aims to "build on what Joe Biden has built back up, to make this country even better". Emphasizing a host of liberal stances on criminal justice reform, climate change, gun control and women's rights, Harris emphasizes that she is not "merely a puppet of our President, but someone with a backbone to fight for justice, equity and opportunity for all". To no great surprise, Republicans strongly criticize her, arguing that Harris has been "Biden's biggest cheerleader for everything that has gone wrong in our country since the day he took office".

Harris is expected to be far from the only Democrat expected to enter the race. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who resigned his post after the new Congress was sworn in but rebuffed claims he was doing it for presidential ambitions, was recently spotted in Iowa at a union fish fry where he extolled the successes of Biden's infrastructure plan, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota headlined a major Democratic fundraiser in Des Moines, and shot down speculation she was running for President when asked about it by suggesting "Let's just say I'm more focused on getting things done for Minnesota families than merely doing window shopping here in Des Moines - for actual windows, that is". (Fun fact: The state is actually home to a major window manufacturer, Pella, which is southeast of Des Moines.)

May 31, 2023
REP. MATT GAETZ RESIGNS FROM OFFICE, WILL NOT SEEK PRESIDENTIAL BID
Embattled over crimes surrounding a former friend of his and lingering allegations of sex trafficking, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned from office on Wednesday and declared he will also not be running for President in 2024. The four-term Republican, who was first elected in the same 2016 election that elected Donald Trump and elevated Gaetz into one of his leading advocates in Congress, had become a lightning rod for controversy over his tenure in Washington, and had been facing calls for his resignation, if not expulsion, over the aforementioned sex trafficking allegations. At last check, Gaetz was reportedly spotted in Santa Barbara, California, where his wife Ginger is from.

Had Gaetz run for President, he would have certainly staked out a unique niche as a "libertarian nationalist" with strong support for the Trump agenda and also as a millennial conservative who could appeal to younger voters. Other potential candidates remain mum about their ambitions, with much of the focus now shifting towards Trump's anticipated speech at Mar-a-Lago the coming month. As for his heavily Republican district in the Florida Panhandle, Gov. Ron DeSantis has set a special election for late August, with the winner to be decided on Tuesday, November 7. While Democrats stated they do intend to recruit candidates for the seat, the seat is not only expected to remain Republican, but may even result in a runoff where both candidates are Republicans.

[SaintStan86]

Some more real-life updates from the House before I continue...

Ohio: The Ohio Supreme Court has invalidated the Republican-skewed congressional and legislative maps that were passed last fall, meaning that the legislature has to now draw a new map in 30 days lest the Ohio Redistricting Commission take charge for another 30 days. This is only the beginning of a lot of redistricting battles being decided in the real life courts. I have actually modified my Dave's Redistricting App proposal for Ohio to show what I think the seats will probably become based on what the legislature will likely do and what the courts will probably tolerate (it won't be exactly 8 GOP and 7 Dem seats because you would have to break apart Columbus and Cleveland to get seven seats that voted for Biden - the state is Trump territory outside of the 3 C's!):
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c805b41b-e634-4a30-8dfd-bb8348de6d40

But since I really can't post images here nor know how to, here's what I now predict will happen in Ohio if my proposal (or at least something close to it) becomes reality:

• Steve Chabot will have a close reelection, with the lion's share of Republican-friendly Butler County getting him over the hump in his minority-impact, one-quarter Black District 1 in Cincinnati. Brad Wenstrup will have downtown Cincinnati and most of the Hamilton County riverfront, but the Clermont and Warren County suburbs will make his reelection in District 2 easy except in blue waves. Mike Turner's Dayton-based 3rd will become a Republican-leaning battleground that extends out to Middletown.
• Jim Jordan (8th) will trade district numbers with Warren Davidson (4th), but will still represent the northern and western Columbus suburbs in addition to his home in small-town Urbana. Save for 1932-style blue waves, his Dem opponents will run vigorous campaigns but won't come within single digits unless Jordan does something really stupid. Davidson will join Bob Gibbs (12th, northern), Troy Balderson (9th, southeastern) and Mike Carey (6th, southern to south Columbus suburbs) in having heavily Republican seats.
• Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta will be paired in the Toledo-based District 5, which is a fair fight district that voted for Obama twice and Trump twice, with Latta beating Kaptur. Theresa Gavarone will not be running.
• Joyce Beatty (7th, Columbus) and Shontel Brown (11th, Cleveland) will still have liberal Dem bastions that also count as minority opportunity districts for Black voters exclusive to Franklin and Cuyahoga counties, respectively. And yes, Brown will have a primary challenge from Nina Turner in the latter.
• The Cleveland suburbs will be competitive to various degrees, most especially the new 10th in the western suburbs and Lorain that Anthony Gonzalez vacated over his vote to impeach Trump (Max Miller still gets it here) and the new 15th I predict will be a Dem-leaning battleground from Akron to Canton that narrowly voted for Trump twice. Dave Joyce would have a more competitive, if Republican-flavored, 14th in the eastern suburbs and Bill Johnson will now be favored in the Youngstown-based 13th Tim Ryan gave up to run for Senate. Maybe Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (who was running in the 9th but not sure now) could run here since she grew up in Massillon and her husband is a former NFL player, seeing that the Pro Football Hall of Fame is in Canton.

Tennessee: Jim Cooper has been all but drawn out of Congress, pending a successful legal challenge from Democrats. Not going to elaborate until later, but it's fair to say that the GOP primary in the 5th will be more interesting now. Manny Sethi, who ran a late-charging primary battle against Bill Hagerty for the U.S. Senate last year, has already ruled out a run in an opinion piece last November, but anything can happen and he might just jump in at the last minute. Robby Starbuck, a music video director who has already been running here, is likely to get a lot more attention should the districts actually hold water (which I doubt will be the case given the splintering of Nashville's Black vote), though it's very likely we could be seeing a brand name Republican or two jump into this race.

California: Tom McClintock will now be seeking reelection in the 5th, meaning that there exists a possibility that whoever succeeds Devin Nunes in the old 22nd, where I had Elizabeth Heng predicted as his successor in the special, may be pushed into a November battle with McClintock. There's even a possibility that Phil Arballo, who appears to be the leading Democrat for the old 22nd, might steal the seat in the special since some Republicans may not be as enthused about that election since McClintock will be running now in the 5th, but I'd like to hear from someone from the Central Valley about the dynamics to that very wild special election. (Could Devin just not wait until the midterms to go work for Trump's Truth Social?)

Meanwhile, in McClintock's soon-to-be-former district, Kevin Kiley, a State Assemblyman who is considered a rising conservative star in California, appears to have the inside track to succeed McClintock in what will become the 3rd. And Ricky Gill won't be running now in any of the Central Valley districts, so for now Josh Harder is favored to win reelection in the 13th. Lastly, in Orange County Harley Rouda won't be seeking a comeback bid in the 47th, but Katie Porter will still be a slight favorite (for now) due to her massive warchest as well as her district's usual voters (white corporate suburban types, including plenty of the neocon variety since that area was once a major defense contractor worker base - not sure if it still is, will have to ask someone more familiar with the OC) being more receptive to Biden than other demographic groups per polling. Expect her seat to become a major battleground in this TL as she attempts to pursue the obvious.

Pennsylvania: Remember when Teddy Daniels posted that viral ad where "country club Republicans" gasped? Well Daniels is now running for Lieutenant Governor on State Senator Doug Mastriano's ticket, so it looks like Dan Meuser's likely move into the 8th against Matt Cartwright will go straight to the general after all.

New York: John Katko is now retiring. His Syracuse seat, which is now the 22nd and stretches eastward to Utica and southward to Ithaca, will still go to Francis Conole, while the 23rd being vacated by Tom Reed will remain Republican, but I am not at liberty yet to predict which one it will be.

Arizona: Raúl Grijalva, who will be 74 this year, will be running for reelection after all in the 7th.

Michigan: Bill Huizenga is now running in the new 4th of Fred Upton. So not only will he NOT be retiring, but he will now be the favorite as Fred Upton's vote to impeach Trump + a middling voting record that conservatives HATE will make Huizenga the favorite here.

Overall, my projected margin in this TL is now 260 Republicans, 175 Democrats.

Newest update to the TL coming soon...

[SaintStan86]

June 4, 2023
GOV. ROY COOPER LAUNCHES PRESIDENTIAL BID
At a "special tailgate party" near the campus of his alma mater, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, that was marketed as a "thank you party" for his supporters and donors with a "big announcement", Gov. Roy Cooper announced to a jubilant crowd that he will be running for President in 2024. While originally having not considered a run for President as he viewed Biden as "likely to seek reelection" then, Biden's decision to retire has opened the door for Cooper. A more traditional center-left moderate in the mold of Biden who largely shares many of Biden's political positions with an emphasis on "good paying jobs" and quality education for working families, Cooper has the distinction of winning twice as a Democrat in a state that voted twice for Donald Trump - first as a candidate in 2016 and then as the incumbent in 2020.

The tailgate party, as expected, is part tailgate, part Sunday brunch with such quintessentially southern (and in particular, appropriate for North Carolina) foods as barbecue (including ribs) with all the fixins, fried green tomatoes, buttermilk biscuits, Cheerwine and mimosas - perhaps in honor of the "Brunch Bill" Cooper signed on his watch that allowed alcohol sales after church on Sundays. There's even plenty of football involved as former Congressman (and possible gubernatorial hopeful) Heath Shuler (himself a former star college quarterback who flamed out in the NFL) is on hand to endorse Cooper, calling him "a family man who will bring North Carolina values to all of America". But the reality still remains that Cooper is likely to be a distant candidate in a field dominated by Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, and likely to be further diluted by other dignitaries including other Democratic Governors as well as Biden administration officials. Still, if there were a case for a moderate Democrat Governor from the South (even though North Carolina is clearly more ACC than SEC as a whole), Cooper would fit the bill.

June 7, 2023
CANDACE OWENS TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
Just one week before Trump's scheduled announcement on whether or not he will run for President, conservative commentator Candace Owens draws attention of her own by announcing that she will run for President as a Republican in 2024. The announcement, which she makes in a video exclusive to Twitter, is made official after weeks of promoting "something very big" to her audience on her Daily Wire talk show, Candace. A Connecticut native who once rabidly criticized the former President and conservatives in general, Owens shifted more towards the right after her attempted launch of a website to expose online bullying led to harassment she subsequently blamed on liberals (even though conservatives in the Gamergate controversy which formed the basis for her ill-fated website also criticized it as well), with Trump provocateurs such as Mike Cernovich playing a central role in her political transformation into what many consider one of the most provocative voices on the right.

When asked as to why she chose to run for President despite Trump's decision not being known yet, Owens cited, "Competition is a good thing, and I think it's important to note that while Trump has been a big influence on not only who I have become politically, but also the rise of Black conservatives throughout the country, he is not without fault." If elected, Owens would be the youngest President ever elected - as she will turn 35 (the minimum age required to run for President) in April and the first Black woman ever elected to the post. While her campaign has all the (albeit stereotypical) hallmarks of Trumpism - America First, secure borders, opposition to China and wokeism, etc. - prognosticators put her presidential chances at zero percent, and polls both with and without Trump show her in the low single-digits or just merely hashmarks, with some pundits wondering if Trump's defense of the COVID vaccines, even though both he and Owens opposed mandates, in a recent interview on her Daily Wire podcast (which according to founder Ben Shapiro has suspended production due to her campaign), steered her towards making a presidential run regardless of what Trump does.

June 9, 2023
SEN. JOSH HAWLEY WILL RUN FOR REELECTION, NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT
After months of speculation, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri reasserted that he will be running for reelection for a second term as the state's now-senior U.S. Senator and will not run for President regardless of what Donald Trump decides the following week. In an announcement made outside the state capitol in Jefferson City, Hawley cites "If there's any place where my voice is needed more than ever for the America First movement, it's in the Senate, and that will be the case no matter who the Republicans nominate next year."

While his Tocqueville-style approach to governance, which combines a focus on social conservatism with economic nationalism and opposition to foreign wars, has made him a favorite in Trump circles, it has not been without criticism. Indeed, Hawley's support for economic stimulus for families impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which he made in a press conference during the height of the pandemic with Bernie Sanders (of all persons) in December of 2020, led to criticism from economic conservative groups such as the Club for Growth, with other critics even calling Hawley's "middle America" characterizations and support for banning stock ownership amongst members of Congress hypocritical, citing his upbringing in a banker's household and Ivy League education. However, much of the criticism as of recent centered on his decision to move his family to northern Virginia (which he described as a means of keeping his young family together, opting to maintain voter eligibility at his sister's residence in a suburb of Springfield) and especially his central role in the drama surrounding the certification of the 2020 presidential election and the ensuing insurrection, which led his one-time mentor, former U.S. Senator John Danforth (who once held the same Senate seat Hawley now holds), to apologize for supporting Hawley.

While Hawley is now running for reelection, it is not without a high-profile challenger to no great surprise, as U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner of the suburban St. Louis-based 2nd, who had once been considered as a potential challenger for the Senate seat Hawley won over then-incumbent Claire McCaskill in in 2018, declared her candidacy for the seat the previous month with support from Danforth and other more established Republicans who expressed doubts that Hawley could win a second term in 2024. Wagner, who unlike Hawley voted to certify the 2020 election for Biden and waffled between endorsing and not endorsing Trump over the course of his presidential career, stressed the need for "a reliable conservative voice who will do Missouri proud and undo the damage that President Biden has done to our country", with her campaign team even pointing to Hawley's polling numbers against former State Auditor Nicole Galloway, who is running on the Democratic side, as underwater in the suburbs of St. Louis and Kansas City. The announcement was met with criticism from Trumpworld and even members of her own political inner circle including some of her staff, with Hawley chiming, "Maybe we ought to remember the last time someone from her district ran for this seat...didn't exactly go as planned," referencing the failed 2012 candidacy of Wagner's predecessor Todd Akin, whose campaign against McCaskill imploded in the face of a controversial slip of the tongue on abortion he made on a St. Louis political talk show, and also perhaps McCaskill's 2006 triumph over then-Sen. Jim Talent (who also represent Wagner's seat in the past) as well.

And now, the time has come. Get ready for a YUGE update to the TL...

[SaintStan86]

June 14, 2023
BREAKING NEWS: DONALD TRUMP WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
After weeks of speculation, former President Donald Trump announced that he will not run for President in 2024. The surprise announcement, which followed earlier reports that the press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence would be closed to the public save for his family, his closest advisors and members of the media (well, at least the ones least likely to rock Trump's boat) - a situation very unusual for a President used to drawing massive crowds even during the worst brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic, came after weeks of speculation that intensified following the announcement that President Joe Biden would not seek a second term.

In the announcement, Trump stated, "I have no doubt that I still won the election in 2020, that Joe Biden was living on borrowed time in a presidency that really was being controlled by Kamala Harris, and that if I were to run there would be a level of support like no one ever saw before for any candidate, anywhere. At the same time, with Sleepy Joe deciding permanently to take naps and sleep in, and with so many more allies that I helped put in office - both here in Florida and across the nation, including those who now supposedly hate me for no reason, and of course no more Liz Cheney to worry about, I am at peace with what we have built on this journey together with a Republican Party fully transformed and more committed to America First than ever before."

"That's why, because you the American people are my first and foremost supporters, I am here to tell you today that I will not be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024. I encourage everyone to not be disappointed, don't get angry at me like you did me and Bill O'Reilly over the great vaccines that saved America and our beautiful economy we had before the swamp threw us into a panic - that's what the Democrats want. Instead, we should be encouraged by the progress we have made in the last eight years - a presidency that put free and fair trade at the very front, record job growth for minorities, and tough leadership against China and others who seek to bully us into submission, followed by a tremendous uprising against the weak-kneed leadership that Joe Biden and his fake news media comrades defended at every turn as they dismantled everything we built - which will be proudly built back with a strong America First President I will be endorsing as we get to the good stuff (apparently alluding to the obviously larger states on Super Tuesday that follow the early states)."

As expected, the reaction across the political spectrum and around the world is overwhelming from foreign leaders and celebrities to grassroots activists and detractors at home. Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz and many others on the right all honored Trump for the accomplishments of his administration, while Barack Obama, Chuck Schumer, Kamala Harris and others on the left expressed relief at the announcement Trump would not be running - though some did fret over whether or not this would actually work to the GOP's benefit in 2024. As expected, Republican and conservative critics of Trump had reactions ranging from relief that "the fascist is gone" to concern that "what Trump left behind may be even worse". Lastly, with Trump no longer in the picture for 2024, former Congressman Adam Kinzinger of Illinois also announced he would not be running for President, proclaiming "Today is a great day for those who believe in country over party, as Donald Trump has decided on his own terms he won't be coming back to the White House", while also acknowledging that "there is work to be done to ensure the scourge of Trumpism no longer infects the GOP going forward".

[SaintStan86]

With Donald Trump and Joe Biden both choosing to opt out of running for President and the field now wide open for the White House - and the Senate, the floodgates are already starting to open:

June 17, 2023
SEN. MARCO RUBIO TO ENTER 2024 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida announced on Saturday that he will run for President again in 2024. Rubio, who received over 3.5 million votes in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries and had just been reelected last year to a third term, made the announcement in an introductory ad on his website where he states "It's time to restore the timeless values of American exceptionalism here at home and around the world", with an emphasis on reforming the nation's immigration and border security practices, a more active presence in "confronting Communism and antidemocratic institutions around the globe", and "reining in the national debt without jeopardizing our security here at home". A formal kickoff is scheduled to take place later this month in Miami, where his campaign is based and has already generated support from Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and the area's three Republican members of Congress, Mario Diaz-Balart, Carlos Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar, with venerable Miami auto dealer Norman Braman serving as his national honorary campaign finance chairman.

Despite falling short of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, criticism over Rubio choosing to seek a third term and especially his support for comprehensive immigration reform, Rubio's oratory strengths set him apart amongst the field, and he also fills a niche within the Republican field on national security matters - particularly from the sort of hawkish line more commonly associated with the pre-Trump GOP. However, Rubio is very likely to face competition for this vote from other candidates whose profile rose in the Trump era, and some question whether or not the 52-year-old Rubio "still has it" after being humiliated by Trump in his own state during the 2016 primaries. Rubio shrugs off this criticism, pointing to similar critiques of his fellow Cuban-American colleague in the Senate, Ted Cruz, who has entered the 2024 race already but not without questions of whether or not Cruz is "as exciting a candidate as he was in 2016".

June 19, 2023
FORMER VP MIKE PENCE TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
On Monday, five days after former President Donald Trump announced he would not run for President again in a surprise announcement, former Vice President Mike Pence announced his entry into the presidential field on the steps of the Indiana Statehouse. A former Democrat in his youth who later became a Republican in the Ronald Reagan years, Pence became notable as a popular conservative talk radio host in Indianapolis before eventually serving six terms in Congress and one term as Governor before serving as Vice President under Donald Trump. In his maiden campaign speech, Pence proclaims "Like many of you, I started out as an aimless Democrat finding his way in the world. And boy, did I grow up and see the light."

In his speech, Pence also declares, "Of all the candidates running for President in 2024, I am the only one who worked side-by-side with Donald Trump to Make America Great Again. And as your next President, I am going to once again Make America Great!" Pence has aimed to build his campaign around tackling the national debt without jeopardizing economic growth, reining in wasteful spending on healthcare and social services, defending traditional values and "finishing the work at the border that Trump started and Biden has tried to dismantle!". When asked about his appearance at Mar-a-Lago the previous April, Pence remarks, "Well I was just there for Melania because it was her birthday and to celebrate the victories in Florida, but Donald and I had a great discussion about the issues facing the country. He knows very well that his movement has outlasted his presidency by far, and we're definitely not going back to where we were before Trump."

June 22, 2023
SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN TO RETIRE
On Thursday night during her 90th birthday party at a hotel in San Francisco, longtime Sen. Dianne Feinstein announced that she will not be running for reelection after more than 30 years of service out of many in a long career of public service, including serving as Mayor of San Francisco during most of the 1980s following the assassination of her predecessor George Moscone and her fellow Supervisor Harvey Milk, followed by her 1992 victory over appointed Republican Sen. John Seymour to become California's first female U.S. Senator.

Following her announcement, Feinstein receives overwhelming praise from many of her fellow Democrats including (obviously) three of her most notable colleagues: Vice President Kamala Harris (who referred to Feinstein as "a national treasure and progressive champion who will be sorely missed in Washington"), former U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer (who was elected with Feinstein in the 1992 'Year of the Woman' and praised her former colleague as "true to California and the progressive values we stand for"), and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (who at the party praised Feinstein as "a national treasure and the matriarch of the California Democratic Party, for which I was grateful to serve as Chairwoman when Feinstein was in her first years as Mayor of this great city").

With Feinstein's retirement, Democrats across the nation's largest state (and arguably the biggest "blue state") start to ponder their futures as a hotly contested and expensive primary is expected to shape up. Just hours after Feinstein's retirement announcement, progressive U.S. Rep Katie Porter announces her candidacy for Feinstein's seat, with another outspoken liberal member of Congress, Eric Swalwell, following suit later that day, and many other high-profile Democrats expected to enter the race in the coming weeks. At the same time, it also puts Porter's competitive 47th District in coastal Orange County in play, having only reelected Porter with just over 51 percent of the vote; though considering how badly Democrats did at the congressional level in 2022, and especially with former Congressman Harley Rouda now running for Porter's seat after bowing out in 2022 to Porter, many progressives view Porter's candidacy as "a win-win for progressives" considering the circumstances Porter had to face.

While admittedly being underdogs, Republicans are also optimistic, with the California Republican Party announcing that "we will be waging the most vigorous contest for the U.S. Senate in years", hoping to build on their 2022 numbers which produced some of the best numbers for GOP candidates since the heavily contested 2010 elections for Governor (where Meg Whitman lost to Jerry Brown) and U.S. Senate (where Boxer defeated Carly Fiorina for her fourth and ultimately final term for the seat Kamala Harris later held for four years before becoming Vice President). Immediately, speculation begins to swirl around Speaker Kevin McCarthy running, but McCarthy dismisses this talk, choosing to focus more on running the House and "standing up to the failed Biden agenda", while also declaring "I will do my darnedest to make sure Republicans have a strong candidate who will put the great state of California in play once again".

[SaintStan86]

Some more real-life updates from the House before I continue...

Ohio: The Ohio Supreme Court has invalidated the Republican-skewed congressional and legislative maps that were passed last fall, meaning that the legislature has to now draw a new map in 30 days lest the Ohio Redistricting Commission take charge for another 30 days. This is only the beginning of a lot of redistricting battles being decided in the real life courts. I have actually modified my Dave's Redistricting App proposal for Ohio to show what I think the seats will probably become based on what the legislature will likely do and what the courts will probably tolerate (it won't be exactly 8 GOP and 7 Dem seats because you would have to break apart Columbus and Cleveland to get seven seats that voted for Biden - the state is Trump territory outside of the 3 C's!):
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c805b41b-e634-4a30-8dfd-bb8348de6d40

But since I really can't post images here nor know how to, here's what I now predict will happen in Ohio if my proposal (or at least something close to it) becomes reality:

• Steve Chabot will have a close reelection, with the lion's share of Republican-friendly Butler County getting him over the hump in his minority-impact, one-quarter Black District 1 in Cincinnati. Brad Wenstrup will have downtown Cincinnati and most of the Hamilton County riverfront, but the Clermont and Warren County suburbs will make his reelection in District 2 easy except in blue waves. Mike Turner's Dayton-based 3rd will become a Republican-leaning battleground that extends out to Middletown.
• Jim Jordan (8th) will trade district numbers with Warren Davidson (4th), but will still represent the northern and western Columbus suburbs in addition to his home in small-town Urbana. Save for 1932-style blue waves, his Dem opponents will run vigorous campaigns but won't come within single digits unless Jordan does something really stupid. Davidson will join Bob Gibbs (12th, northern), Troy Balderson (9th, southeastern) and Mike Carey (6th, southern to south Columbus suburbs) in having heavily Republican seats.
• Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta will be paired in the Toledo-based District 5, which is a fair fight district that voted for Obama twice and Trump twice, with Latta beating Kaptur. Theresa Gavarone will not be running.
• Joyce Beatty (7th, Columbus) and Shontel Brown (11th, Cleveland) will still have liberal Dem bastions that also count as minority opportunity districts for Black voters exclusive to Franklin and Cuyahoga counties, respectively. And yes, Brown will have a primary challenge from Nina Turner in the latter.
• The Cleveland suburbs will be competitive to various degrees, most especially the new 10th in the western suburbs and Lorain that Anthony Gonzalez vacated over his vote to impeach Trump (Max Miller still gets it here) and the new 15th I predict will be a Dem-leaning battleground from Akron to Canton that narrowly voted for Trump twice. Dave Joyce would have a more competitive, if Republican-flavored, 14th in the eastern suburbs and Bill Johnson will now be favored in the Youngstown-based 13th Tim Ryan gave up to run for Senate. Maybe Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (who was running in the 9th but not sure now) could run here since she grew up in Massillon and her husband is a former NFL player, seeing that the Pro Football Hall of Fame is in Canton.

Tennessee: Jim Cooper has been all but drawn out of Congress, pending a successful legal challenge from Democrats. Not going to elaborate until later, but it's fair to say that the GOP primary in the 5th will be more interesting now. Manny Sethi, who ran a late-charging primary battle against Bill Hagerty for the U.S. Senate last year, has already ruled out a run in an opinion piece last November, but anything can happen and he might just jump in at the last minute. Robby Starbuck, a music video director who has already been running here, is likely to get a lot more attention should the districts actually hold water (which I doubt will be the case given the splintering of Nashville's Black vote), though it's very likely we could be seeing a brand name Republican or two jump into this race.

California: Tom McClintock will now be seeking reelection in the 5th, meaning that there exists a possibility that whoever succeeds Devin Nunes in the old 22nd, where I had Elizabeth Heng predicted as his successor in the special, may be pushed into a November battle with McClintock. There's even a possibility that Phil Arballo, who appears to be the leading Democrat for the old 22nd, might steal the seat in the special since some Republicans may not be as enthused about that election since McClintock will be running now in the 5th, but I'd like to hear from someone from the Central Valley about the dynamics to that very wild special election. (Could Devin just not wait until the midterms to go work for Trump's Truth Social?)

Meanwhile, in McClintock's soon-to-be-former district, Kevin Kiley, a State Assemblyman who is considered a rising conservative star in California, appears to have the inside track to succeed McClintock in what will become the 3rd. And Ricky Gill won't be running now in any of the Central Valley districts, so for now Josh Harder is favored to win reelection in the 13th. Lastly, in Orange County Harley Rouda won't be seeking a comeback bid in the 47th, but Katie Porter will still be a slight favorite (for now) due to her massive warchest as well as her district's usual voters (white corporate suburban types, including plenty of the neocon variety since that area was once a major defense contractor worker base - not sure if it still is, will have to ask someone more familiar with the OC) being more receptive to Biden than other demographic groups per polling. Expect her seat to become a major battleground in this TL as she attempts to pursue the obvious.

Pennsylvania: Remember when Teddy Daniels posted that viral ad where "country club Republicans" gasped? Well Daniels is now running for Lieutenant Governor on State Senator Doug Mastriano's ticket, so it looks like Dan Meuser's likely move into the 8th against Matt Cartwright will go straight to the general after all.

New York: John Katko is now retiring. His Syracuse seat, which is now the 22nd and stretches eastward to Utica and southward to Ithaca, will still go to Francis Conole, while the 23rd being vacated by Tom Reed will remain Republican, but I am not at liberty yet to predict which one it will be.

Arizona: Raúl Grijalva, who will be 74 this year, will be running for reelection after all in the 7th.

Michigan: Bill Huizenga is now running in the new 4th of Fred Upton. So not only will he NOT be retiring, but he will now be the favorite as Fred Upton's vote to impeach Trump + a middling voting record that conservatives HATE will make Huizenga the favorite here.

Overall, my projected margin in this TL is now 260 Republicans, 175 Democrats.

Newest update to the TL coming soon...

Yeah, that map of Ohio would get struck down again. Its probably even less fair the the original map. Everything is looking good!

That may be all well and good to demand exactly 8 Republican and 7 Democrat seats, but Ohio legislators are not going to approve of a map that will cause large chunks of voters, particularly in more suburban areas like around Columbus and in blue-collar regions around Cleveland, to have their votes lost in districts that are so lopsided that the minority party in the district would have an impossible chance of winning.

For better or worse, Ohio is a favorably red state in the near term unless the Democrats start taking Tim Ryan's words seriously about wanting to be more than just a party of hard-left utopians, which doesn't sell with either the suburban voters who shifted blue in the Trump era nor the blue-collar folks Ryan largely represents in Congress (for now) who want the Bernie Sanders economics but not the "bitter clinger" BS that cost Obama with those type of voters around Youngstown and along the Ohio River. It's also important to note that nine of the 15 districts in my map voted for Sherrod Brown (all but one of the districts serving northeast Ohio as well as Beatty's Columbus vote sink, the seat I drew for Chabot in Cincinnati, Turner's Dayton seat and the Toledo seat where Kaptur and Latta would be drawn in), with the seat I drew for Jim Jordan that wraps around the northern Columbus suburbs only barely voting for Jim Renacci. The other seats, save for Brad Wenstrup's seat that snakes into Cincinnati from Clermont and Warren counties, would be fail-safe GOP seats for respective incumbents Balderson, Gibbs, Davidson and the newly elected Carey in southern Ohio. Of course, Democrats would balk at the fact that Mike DeWine won 11 of the 15 seats (the two Black districts + the seats I drew in Toledo and Akron went for Richard Cordray), even though DeWine won the other five that Brown won by single digits (with Turner's seat going for DeWine by just under 10 percent) and all of those districts probably would have voted at least once for Barack Obama (not counting Carey's and Balderson's seats that probably were close for John McCain in 2008).

As far as minority demographics are concerned, the districts that Beatty and Shontel Brown (or perhaps Nina Turner?) represent are effectively Black opportunity districts that cannot be dramatically altered without sinking the votes of more Republican and purple areas that otherwise would be better represented in a district like Dave Joyce's to the east. It's one thing to put Shaker Heights or Lakewood into Brown's district since those are very Democratic areas with a mixture of Black and white liberal/Jewish voters, but it's another to throw in Chagrin Falls (a more Republican area of eastern Cuyahoga that has more in common politically with Geauga County than Cleveland) or even Solon (which favors the Democrats but not by the obscene margins in Shaker Heights) with causing a lot of uproar.

Going to Cincinnati, the Legislature will also have to find a way to benefit Chabot without denying Black Democrats an opportunity district, which is why putting in most of Republican-friendly Butler County (which is now in Davidson's district as a byproduct of the district previously being John Boehner's seat) save for Middletown (whose Butler and Warren parts would be in Mike Turner's Dayton district) with all but the most conservative areas of Cincinnati proper would be an effective compromise. Now if Chabot were to lose to a Democrat in the long term and that Democrat stayed in office by 2030, I could actually see a situation where the Democrat could be put in a district exclusive to Hamilton County with all of Cincinnati in it, and the only thing the GOP would have to worry about is whether or not to sink Colerain Township (west) or Indian Hill (east) into a favorably Dem district depending on whether or not future GOP presidential candidates are capable of winning Hamilton County in the future (George W. Bush was the last one to do it in 2004).

Lastly, Jim Jordan's district extending into Columbus would actually benefit both sides since Jordan would get a large suburban constituency around Columbus including Delaware County (which Republicans will NOT want to see its votes lost in a district that is safe for Democrats) that can be used as a local fundraising base for Jordan to build on and Democrats would have the outer northern parts of Franklin County (which would make up around two-thirds of the prototypical 8th) that were quite sympathetic to them in the Trump era, and it's also important to note that a district like what I drew for Jordan would actually help potential Democratic candidates (e.g. Danny O'Connor) whose candidacies would otherwise be seen as "wasted opportunities" not unlike the various Republican candidates who get millions in contributions running in deep blue districts simply because the Democrat is a lightning rod for controversy like Maxine Waters or in leadership like Nancy Pelosi (think of all the Republicans who got filthy rich in campaign contributions just for running against Pelosi!).

That is just my view, but I think my map is perhaps the best guess as to what will likely come to pass in the end that would be beneficial to all parties involved.

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE: Things are really moving fast right now. Jerry McNerney is now retiring from his Stockton-based 9th in California. Josh Harder is now moving into the district, but it's still going to be a fight considering the district is D+5, and could still flip to Tom Patti if the current congressional poll trend towards the GOP persists. The 13th south of Stockton in Merced, which Harder is leaving, does have a ready-made Democratic challenger in State Asm. Adam Gray, and it just may become the new landing point for whichever Republican prevails in Devin Nunes's district now that Tom McClintock is running in the 5th; while it won't be easy for that Republican given its Democratic lean, it wouldn't be a shock to see that district also go Republican in this current environment as well. Also, in Rhode Island, Jim Langevin has announced his retirement from his D+9 district which is the more Republican of the two districts, containing many areas west of Providence that are more sympathetic to Republicans in comparison to those in the 1st. While the Democrats should be favored here on paper, the seat could be ripe for a dark horse Republican gain depending on how well the GOP is polling nationally and who the nominees could be.

Meanwhile, in the TL...

June 24, 2023
FORMER AMBASSADOR NIKKI HALEY TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
In front of a jubilant crowd that filled the streets of historic downtown Charleston, S.C., former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley announced her candidacy for President on the city's historic battery on Saturday, with the distant sight of Fort Sumter serving as a backdrop for her announcement. In her announcement, Haley proclaims, "Today, here in one of America's grandest cities, where history and American charm come together, right here in the great state of South Carolina, I am honored to announce that I will be a candidate for President of the United States of America!" The former Governor of South Carolina, who rose to prominence as a rising star in the GOP before her appointment as Ambassador, is building her campaign around continuing much of the legacy of the Trump presidency, with an emphasis on "standing up to China and those who seek to undermine our great country and what she stands for". With the announcement, her organization Stand for America becomes the umbrella organization for her campaign, as well as her slogan and primary hashtag, #StandForAmerica.

Joining Haley and her family on the Battery, with the podium conveniently situated at the foot of a double staircase leading up to the Battery itself, were some of South Carolina's most prominent Republican elected officials, including U.S. Senators, Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott and former U.S. Senator Jim DeMint, as well as Gov. Henry McMaster and the area's Congresswoman, Rep. Nancy Mace of the 1st District, who introduced Haley with the proclamation, "Ladies and gentlemen, your future and first Madame President, Nikki Haley!". Haley's campaign is built around a classic conservative playbook: tough fiscal discipline, defense of traditional values, and a strong national defense, along with a "hearty defense" of the Trump legacy of "America First", with Haley even proclaiming by plugging her organization's name and overall campaign slogan, "If you like America First, you will love Stand for America!"

The reaction to her candidacy is met with strong praise from many on the right, with Republicans chiming at the prospect of making Haley, born Nimrata Nikki Randhawa to Sikh immigrants in rural Bamberg County, the first female and first Asian-American President, beating Vice President Kamala Harris to that distinction. At the same time, some express skepticism, citing her breaking away from Trump following January 6th, in which Haley called on Republicans to move forward with the best of the Trump legacy and his movement, but without the controversial aspects that turned away some voters from Trump.

These points, as well as her absence from Trump's Mar-a-Lago party last April, were brought up in an exclusive interview Fox News anchor Bret Baier did with Haley, who responded to the question of her absence from that party by saying, "Of course, I had prior commitments that day and was spending time with my family, but I will admit I haven't really spoken to the President since that day the Capitol was stormed." When also asked by Baier, "Do you have any regrets about the Trump presidency?", Haley casually responds, "Of course not. For everything that went wrong on that day in January 2021 and whatever concerns some had about him, I could not imagine a presidency that was as successful and uplifting as that of Donald Trump."

June 26, 2023
SEN. COTTON ENTERS PRESIDENTIAL RACE, TAKES AIM AT HALEY
Just two days after Nikki Haley's entrance into the Republican primary, Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas declared his candidacy for President. The two-term Republican, who if elected would be the tallest President in American history at 6'5" - one inch higher than Abraham Lincoln, announced his candidacy on his campaign website, with an announcer proclaiming "More than ever, America needs a President whose first commitment is to everyday people doing extraordinary things. Their desire for traditional American values, a strong economy at home and a commitment to peace abroad is what unites us all as Americans." Following the introductory portion, which highlighted Cotton's upbringing in rural Dardanelle, his high school basketball days, days as an outspoken conservative at Harvard, and his career in the military, as a Mckinsey & Company consultant and eventually as a both a Congressman and later U.S. Senator, Cotton declares "More than ever, the need for strong America leadership to counter the dangerous influence of China, Russia and Islamic extremists here at home and abroad requires a strong conservative who will go to work for the American people from day one."

Indeed, Cotton is framing his candidacy around national security issues, unsurprising as Cotton is considered a leading foreign policy hawk on the Republican side who has been critical of noninterventionist influences within his party. In the announcement, Cotton also takes shots at Nikki Haley, "Unlike one of my opponents who you probably have heard about, I have never backed down from Donald Trump and I never will". Some Trump loyalists aren't convinced however, with Roger Stone and Steve Bannon pointing out in statements that Cotton opposed attempts to overturn the 2020 election victory for Joe Biden. Still, Bannon remarked, "It's safe to say, if Cotton does become President, at least Arkansas will have produced an Ivy League-educated President who didn't lose his values", taking a direct shot at former Democratic President (and former Arkansas Governor) Bill Clinton. With Cotton's announcement, the Republican field has now swelled to eight brand-name candidates, with Cotton's chances being put at "slim to none" of becoming the Republican nominee for President.

June 29, 2023
GOV. POLIS BECOMES LATEST DEMOCRAT TO ENTER PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado announced on Twitter that he will be entering the Democratic field for President on Thursday, with a formal announcement scheduled to take place on Saturday in Denver. The first openly gay man to serve as Governor of any state and Colorado's first Jewish Governor, Polis says he intends to use his experience as a technology entrepreneur and public servant to "transform America into a nation united more by our shared values of dignity, optimism and compassion for all mankind". Polis's campaign is built on a classic liberal agenda focused on investments in jobs, education and healthcare, but with somewhat of a "Western libertarian" twist not unlike that of his predecessor as Governor, John Hickenlooper, now a U.S. Senator, along with a strong focus on climate change. While Polis's platform does include an extensive array of environmental and energy policy prescriptions, Polis stops short of endorsing a "Green New Deal", instead preferring to focus on "market-based solutions to our changing climate". For the most part, Polis's campaign is slotted on the more moderate end of progressive, as a sharp contrast to the straight Obama-style liberalism of Kamala Harris and the hard progressivism of Elizabeth Warren.

Pundits react to the news of Polis's presidential candidacy by drawing comparisons to the campaigns of Hickenlooper as well as another noted former Colorado statesman, former U.S. Senator Gary Hart, whose 1984 campaign was built on the same moderate, technocratic sort of platform that Polis is now running on. Others have also alluded to the prospect of Polis's husband, Marlon Reis, becoming the first First Gentleman of the United States. But overall, Polis's chances of becoming President are relatively small in comparison to not only Harris and Warren, but also Pete Buttigieg, who like Polis is also openly gay, though some speculate that Polis could ultimately use his candidacy either as a springboard to the Vice Presidency on the winning Democratic ticket or as a Cabinet member of said future administration.

[SaintStan86]

UPDATE: Gov. Ron DeSantis has assembled his own redistricting map, which adds further conflict to the current battle between the two houses of the Florida Legislature and DeSantis himself. Fast forwarding within this TL, I am going to now make some subtle changes to the House predictions in Florida assuming the numbering remains consistent, the VRA district DeSantis's plan scraps between Tallahassee and Jacksonville remains, and the prevailing Republican trend in congressional polling persists:

• After initially scrapping Al Lawson's 5th District connecting majority Black and liberal sections of Tallahassee and Jacksonville, a compromise is reached to keep it as the renumbered 3rd with a small finger extending to Gainesville. Kat Cammack will now represent the 5th with the rest of the Panhandle and First Coast seats remaining put.
• Asides from a minor change to add relatively purple Winter Park and Maitland, the Seminole and south Volusia-based 7th drawn by DeSantis survives with Cory Mills as the freshman incumbent. The rest of Orlando and Orange County remain dominated by the 9th of Darren Soto and the 10th of Randolph Bracy, with Walt Disney World, Doctor Phillips and such golf-oriented suburbs as Windermere and Bay Hill going to Daniel Webster's 11th now centered on The Villages. (A conservative district dominated by tourists, golfers and retirees...what a concept!)
• The GOP does get their Tampa Bay monopoly by the narrowest of margins. Kathy Castor ultimately runs in the more Democratic 15th to the east, but still narrowly loses to State Rep. Mike Beltran. Veterans Anna Paulina Luna and Jay Collins still win in the respective 13th (St. Petersburg, Clearwater) and 14th (most of Tampa, Carrollwood) districts, with eventual House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Vern Buchanan's 16th in Sarasota (where he wins north of 60% in reelection) being the closest thing to a competitive race in the outskirts of the region.
• All of Miami's three Republicans will still be reelected by favorable margins. The only other congressional change (asides from my projected victory for Dale Holness for a full term in the 20th) will be that while the 23rd will still stretch from Boca Raton and Parkland (site of that horrible school shooting in 2018) down to Fort Lauderdale and Dania Beach, it is now even more narrowly Democratic to where a stronger Republican other than what I projected enters the race and wins over Ted Deutch in what will still be a surprise pickup.

Now, back to the TL for some current events:

• A series of violent uprisings in Crimea has further escalated tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with a ransomware attack that disrupted NATO forces for weeks. Secretary of State Tony Blinken and U.S. NATO representative Julianne Smith are sent to the region to try to tamp down tensions, but negotiations with regards to the disputed Crimean peninsula remain at a stalemate with Blinken's warnings of military action going unheeded. Conservative talk radio, most notably Sean Hannity, fixates on what he argues is "a weak show of strength from Biden's even more sleepy foreign policy team", with much of the criticism centered on WestExec Advisors, a consulting firm with strong connections to the Biden administration.
• Many hospitals and medical clinics begin to relax some of the last remaining COVID restrictions, particularly on masks and visiting provisions. With further advancements in vaccines and therapeutics, a greater prevalence of herd immunity, and well-established practices including dedicated wings for respiratory diseases and more investments in internal medicine and research on the part of regional hospital systems, the need to mandate masks and social distancing for other hospital patients and visitors have gradually started to wind down. With this news, previously common sights of prayer groups for patients, families gathering to see relatives such as mothers and their newborns and full waiting rooms with patients seeking medical care and inquiring relatives waiting for word on their patients alike have for the most part returned.
• Two Democratic gerrymanders in Illinois and Maryland are struck down in federal courts. As a result, special masters are assigned to draw new districts that (as expected) benefit the GOP. In Illinois, the two Hispanic districts in Chicago are retained and no longer stretch into large chunks of Republican voters, while Chicago's historic three Black districts are consolidated to two (with the two incumbents of the 1st and 7th districts now pitted against each other in a new 1st) with most of its white liberals on the Lake Michigan lakefront consolidated into one compact district running up to Evanston, a new 6th district exclusive to DuPage County created (pushing freshman Republican Keith Pekau into a new 7th based in Chicago's southwest suburbs), and the linear 13th (a Democratic vote sink from east of St. Louis through Springfield to the University of Illinois campus) eliminated, forcing first-term Democrat Nikki Budzinski into a competitive race with Republican incumbent Rodney Davis. Meanwhile in Maryland, all of suburban Harford County is pushed into a new 2nd, making the already fairly Democratic seat of retiring Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger even more conservative, flipping it to a Republican-leaning seat in suburban Baltimore, while the 6th now goes no further east than Frederick County and more conservative areas of Montgomery County, turning Democratic incumbent David Trone's district into a purple seat, and the 1st District of incumbent Republican Andy Harris now encompassing all of the nine counties east of the Chesapeake, along with Annapolis and surrounding suburbs in Anne Arundel County.

In addition, there are two key developments in the TL involving the Senate, including a major opening outside of the 2024 slate of elections:

• As House Judiciary Committee Chairman, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio had intended to build his committee around investigations into the Biden Administration, ranging from abuse of the Patriot Act by Merrick Garland to target parents criticizing their local school boards to art auction transactions involving Hunter Biden. With Biden no longer running for office and Jordan on the verge of being term-limited from chairing the committee after 2 1/2 terms, Jordan announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown, giving the NRSC a star recruit heading into the 2024 elections. The decision is certainly not without controversy; asides from Jordan being one of the most hard-right conservatives in the conference, Brown also brings up an old sexual abuse scandal involving Ohio State's men's wrestling team (which Jordan was an assistant coach of from the late 80s to the early 90s) upon hearing the news of his newest opponent.
• With Kentucky lawmakers now having secured his desired "escape hatch", former Senate Majority/Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced his resignation from the Senate after more than 38 years of service. McConnell had lobbied the Kentucky Legislature to change the process for filling a Senate vacancy in Kentucky, which previously would have allowed for Gov. Andy Beshear to fill McConnell's seat with a fellow Democrat, by requiring that the appointee be selected from a list of three candidates from the departing Senator's party (of course in McConnell's case, a Republican) and scheduling a special election for the next regular election - the same November election in which Beshear is running for a second term. Despite Beshear's veto, the law was ultimately passed IRL by large enough majorities to overcome Beshear's veto pen, making the changes law in 2021. After McConnell stays around for two more years before resigning his seat, Beshear is presented with three names submitted from the state GOP: Rep. Andy Barr of the Lexington-based 6th (whose district is the most Democratic outside of the Louisville-based 3rd), term-limited State Treasurer Allison Ball (who made an unsuccessful run for the Republican nomination for Governor) and incumbent Attorney General Daniel Cameron (a rising star in the GOP who is the state's first Black Attorney General, known for his battles with Gov. Beshear over COVID-19 restrictions and his role in the Breonna Taylor case). Seeking to rid himself of his biggest obstacle in running his state, Beshear nominates Cameron to succeed McConnell, with Cameron becoming the favorite to win the special election for the remainder of McConnell's term; Democrats will stage a competitive primary fight to nominate a challenger against Cameron in the November special election.

And with that comes the first official presidential forecast for 2024:

As expected, Democrats are favored to win states on the West Coast and in much of the Northeast, while Republicans are favored in most of the South as well as the Great Plains and northern Rocky Mountain states. While Republicans have for the most part fared well in polling, given Biden's mediocre polling numbers and Trump's polarizing personality - both due to deep unpopularity from their respective partisan opponents in polling, many of the swing states from 2020 remain such. In the southeast, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia are set to be hotly contested, while South Carolina and Mississippi are viewed as somewhat competitive due to their large and well-dispersed Black electorates. Virginia is also leaning Democratic, but many suspect the Commonwealth may become a purple state given the narrow Republican sweep of 2021 and Gov. Glenn Youngkin's rising profile within his party. Further up the Atlantic, Maine and New Hampshire are seen as battlegrounds, with the former's 2nd District viewed as Republican-leaning, while Republican overperformance in New Jersey and Connecticut during the 2022 elections could potentially put those states in play even though the overwhelmingly Democratic urban vote in both states makes this possibility highly speculative.

The swing state picture is largely dominated by the Midwest, with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all having gone from Obama to Trump to Biden over a span of eight years. Ohio is also seen as a battleground, despite its slight red lean in the Trump years, as Democrats ran a very competitive race in 2022 where they picked up some Trump voters along the Ohio River and in the urban cores, but not enough to overcome Josh Mandel's strong support in his suburban Cleveland base and the Democrats' weak performance elsewhere. Iowa is also seen as competitive, but leans Republican after the GOP's strong performance statewide in the midterms, while Indiana and Missouri remain favorably Republican despite competitive statewide elections in the 2022 cycle in which more traditional Democrats appealed to a few "Trump Democrats", but not enough to overcome their states' strong Republican bents.

Lastly, in the West, only California and Hawaii are seen as locks for the Democrats given that the leading Democrat, Vice President Kamala Harris, is from the Golden State. Oregon and Washington haven't gone Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984, but stronger-than-average Republican performances outside of the urban cores in Seattle and Portland have led many to speculate that the states could become competitive in 2024. Arizona and Nevada are seen as the region's preeminent swing states, while Colorado and New Mexico both have the potential to go from leaning Dem to full-out purple depending on how well voters in those states react to the candidates and whether the GOP's gains among Hispanics will persist into 2024. Utah and Montana, due to their liberal-leaning constituencies in Salt Lake City and in Missoula and Bozeman, respectively, strongly favor the GOP, but not enough to make them locks given Trump's mediocre support amongst the former's Mormon population and the latter's large influx of California transplants.

[SaintStan86]

Before I continue, do keep in mind that as far as the current events in this TL are concerned, I am trying to be as realistic as possible even though I am widely expected to be wrong, though I can always hope I am right. That is why I'm not even going to go into the details of extraneous economic matters, such as further bank consolidations, future professional sports expansions (though I do predict the Chargers will return to San Diego, the Seattle SuperSonics and Montreal Expos will be resurrected as expansion teams and the Arizona Coyotes will have relocated to Houston within the decade), new ventures from Elon Musk beyond what I talked about in this TL earlier with regards to Mars and whatever the future may hold for the MCU (though I will say that movie theaters will be buzzing again if they aren't already IRL). I will note that 2024 is expected to be a year filled with elections: many of America's closest and longest allies and rivals - the UK, France, Russia, India, Mexico, South Africa, etc. - will be having major elections, which stands to dramatically alter the picture on foreign policy matters affecting America.

What I can predict is where the conventions are going to be held and when. In this TL, the 2024 Republican National Convention will be held at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh from August 19-22, while the Democratic National Convention will be held at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee from August 26-29, appropriately slotted between the end of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris and the start of the 2024 NFL season. The RNC's selection of Pittsburgh over Milwaukee, Nashville and Salt Lake City is seen as emblematic of western Pennsylvania's significance to presidential elections, the region having decided the election for Donald Trump in 2016, while the DNC's placement in Milwaukee is part of compensation for the 2020 DNC having been radically altered due to the pandemic. Given recent developments on the debates, it is very likely that the Commission on Presidential Debates will be disbanded, so while the format will largely stay the same save for certain changes the RNC demands, I can now assume in the TL that the debates will now be up to the hosts.

Meanwhile, after the fireworks of the 4th have died down (well, sort of)...

July 4, 2023
MIKE LINDELL LAUNCHES PRESIDENTIAL BID
On the 4th of July, My Pillow founder and CEO Mike Lindell launched his presidential bid on the factory floor of his company in the Twin Cities suburb of Shakopee to a crowd of several hundred supporters. Prior to the announcement, Lindell passed over full control of My Pillow to his son Darren, who already assumed the role of Chief Operating Officer in 2020 as his future ambitions became evident. In his opening speech, Lindell states, "With everything going on here in America, from economic mediocrity to nonstop cancel culture to a big gap on skills and readiness to foreign policy failures, there is a great need for an outsider who rose out of nowhere to achieve the American Dream. Ladies and gentlemen, I am honored to announce I am running to be your next President, to take what Donald Trump made great, bring it back and make it even greater!"

The addition of Lindell to the race adds a political outsider to a field filled with experienced elected officials and former Trump administration insiders, but the standing out factor goes well beyond Lindell being a first-time candidate. A hardcore Trump supporter since the 2016 election, Lindell has also drawn attention for his staunch opposition to "cancel culture" and most especially his overt support for attempting to overturn the 2020 election, including claims that voting machine manufacturers colluded with foreign governments to predetermine an election victory for Biden, among other claims widely debunked across the political spectrum, even within Trumpworld. Following his announcement, Lindell's rival Republican candidates respond to the news by acknowledging the prevalence of voter fraud while dismissing the notion that the election had been stolen. Lindell is unfazed, stating "Okay, we know Biden's not running, but it doesn't hurt to ask questions. After all, many people do believe it wasn't a fair election, and I'll leave it at that - until the time comes."

July 7, 2023
MORE REPUBLICANS EXPLORING BIDS, OTHERS SAY NO THANKS
With the Republican field now standing at nine prominent figures so far, speculation has started to swirl around Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and whether or not he will enter the race. While some have inquired as to why DeSantis hasn't declared when others have, DeSantis's press secretary, Christina Pushaw, points out that the Governor has had to deal with matters related to adapting Florida to a post-COVID economy to ensure it stays prosperous now that other states have reopened to the heights that Florida did during the pandemic, a number of special legislative sessions to address unfinished business from his 2022 promises, and working to prepare the state for the Atlantic hurricane season which has already numbered two storms so far. Pushaw did state that "DeSantis knows that support for him is going to be wide and broad, so if he is running for President in fact, and if he does enter he is going to be a great President!"

That speculation isn't stopping others from making a decision. On Friday, following months of speculation surrounding some unusual trips back and forth across the Missouri River, Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska launched an exploratory committee for President, aiming to build his campaign around fiscal conservatism and the national debt, a focus on constitutionally sound governance, and strenghtening America against the dangers of global rivals such as China. Two Georgia Republicans on opposite ends of the 2020 election debacle, Congresswoman and Trump favorite Marjorie Taylor Greene and former Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan, along with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, have also launched exploratory committees to "test the waters" as well. But not every Republican is moving in that direction; Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas has ruled out a run, but has refrained from making an endorsement in the primary, and two Governors elected in the post-Trump era, Glenn Youngkin of Virginia and Lou Barletta of Pennsylvania, have also announced they are not running for President.

The most intriguing speculation has come from two other individuals. On Fox News's Tucker Carlson Tonight, former Secretary of State and Fox News contributor Mike Pompeo hinted that "I will be taking a good look at who's in the race so far, but while I haven't really shown interest in running for President nor thought about it, I do think there is a need for someone who will address the dangers of the world the way that Donald Trump did, but without the hesitancy some of my colleagues had after he left office", apparently taking a shot at Nikki Haley (whose reception among Trump supporters is lukewarm) and Tom Cotton (whose hawkish foreign policy stands in contrast to Trump's relatively noninterventionist stances) without mentioning their names on air. Also, on The Joe Rogan Experience, Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy announced he has taken steps to consider a run for President, pointing out that "never before is America facing the kind of challenges it is facing now" and that "what I think our country needs is someone to shake things up the way Trump did, and maybe I can be the one to do it".

July 9, 2023
"MAYOR PETE" DECLARES CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT ON SUNDAY MORNING
In an interview on CBS Sunday Morning, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced that he will run for President in 2024. A mild-mannered Democrat who served as the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana from 2012 to 2020, "Mayor Pete" ran as a dark horse moderate who appealed to millennials and more center-left liberals seeking an alternative to more established figures like Joe Biden and Democratic Socialist extraordinaire Bernie Sanders. While his bid ultimately came up short, Buttigieg became widely sought after for a Cabinet post in the Biden Administration if not the Vice Presidency with the former becoming true. While his tenure was short, Buttigieg's oversight of Biden's landmark infrastructure package drew attention to speculation about his future.

The interview is somewhat of a preview as Buttigieg, who aims to become the first openly gay President (though not the only such candidate as Colorado Gov. Jared Polis is in the race as well), formally launches his campaign the following Saturday in South Bend with his husband Chasten and their two children by his side and hundreds in attendance, formally introduced on stage by none other than former late night host and Indianapolis native David Letterman. Playing to the instrumental of Queen's "We Will Rock You", Buttigieg aims to counter his "nice guy" persona with a tough image of social progressivism without restraint, forward motion on economic and infrastructure fueled by strong labor policies, and "not selling out our jobs and our values overseas at the mercy of corporate tyrants". Indeed, Democratic and liberal observers are impressed, but not everyone is.

Shortly after his rally concluded, Buttigieg is slapped with a cease-and-desist order by Domino's Pizza for infringing on an old mid-90s advertising slogan, "Gotta Be, Gotta Be Domino's" (also done along the lines of the aforementioned Queen song Buttigieg used at his campaign kickoff), with an ad-libbed chant that sounded like "Gotta Be, Gotta Be Buttigieg" (highlighted by video screens at the rally that advertised "BOOT EDGE EDGE" as a play on his Maltese surname). In typical "Mayor Pete" fashion, Buttigieg, who ironically once paid a local Domino's to fill potholes in his city when he was Mayor, apologizes by agreeing to drop the use of the chant at future rallies and then placing a large order of Domino's Pizza for his entire staff the following Monday at his South Bend campaign headquarters.

Next up: the one everyone's been waiting for in this TL...

[SaintStan86]

Been reading the interesting replies with regards to Ohio as well as McConnell's decision to step aside. Of course, people are going to argue that Jim Jordan to the Senate can be seen as a downgrade of sorts given his profile in the House, but in this TL Jordan was widely expected to bring up subpoenas on the Biden Administration and the Biden family itself, with the intent of embarrassing the administration even further after the big losses the Democrats endured. With Biden no longer running and the appetite for impeachment having faded, Jordan's work is more quiet than he expected it to be save for questions surrounding Merrick Garland's use of the Patriot Act to target parents battling their local school boards and those who stormed the Capitol on 1/6. At the same time, Jordan is viewed as one of the stronger potential candidates to take on Sherrod Brown in the eyes of some, and considering that conservative activists are going to be all-in on steering the Senate in a conservative direction now that McConnell is gone, a Jim Jordan candidacy isn't going to be out of the blue, and of course he will not be the only one running on the Republican side (we'll get to that later in this TL). After all, I'm sure Jim Jordan is going to find the thought of giving probing questions to future judicial nominees - including for SCOTUS given Alito and Thomas aren't getting any younger - too tempting to pass up a future Senate run against Sherrod Brown. And yes, Ohio is going to start out as a swing state because it is unclear whether or not the blue-collar voters in the northeast of the state (or rather, the potential future state of Western Reserve?) and along the Ohio River will be as inclined to vote Republican as they did for Trump, whose appeal to blue-collar voters was quite unique and included a large number of Democrats who otherwise would have voted for Bernie Sanders had he been the nominee.

Speaking of McConnell, the law in Kentucky in fact has changed IRL with regards to how Gov. Beshear is going to appoint McConnell's replacement; the heavily Republican Kentucky Legislature overrode Beshear's veto in fact last March (link below). Consider that Daniel Cameron is a rising star in the GOP, not only within Kentucky but also nationally as well to the point where national ambitions like the U.S. Senate are more fitting than Beshear's relatively low profile governorship, and also given that Cameron is not likely to be running for Governor in 2023 (for now). To that end, Beshear is going to look for a way to make his next term should he win it less painful knowing that Cameron is going to battle him on a lot of things (whether it's over current topics like abortion, Breonna Taylor, critical race theory, the treatment of horses at Churchill Downs, any election fraud claims Trump or his supporters bring up or even theories surrounding old stuff from years ago like the tragic fire at the Beverly Hills Supper Club in northern Kentucky way back in 1977), and appointing Cameron would be a win-win, not only for conservatives eager to see an additional Black Republican in the Senate with strong conservative ambitions, but also for Democrats who would like Beshear to not only have an easier path to reelection, but also rid himself of his biggest potential obstacle in governing his Commonwealth.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kentucky-state-lawmakers-override-veto-to-strip-away-governors-power-to-fill-u-s-senate-vacancies-01617137255

[SaintStan86]

July 15, 2023
GOV. RON DeSANTIS ENTERS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL FIELD
In front of a jubilant crowd on the downtown waterfront in his native Jacksonville, Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis launched his campaign for the Republican nomination for President on Saturday. Elected to Congress in 2012 as a conservative reformer, and then winning the race for Governor in a very close race in 2018, DeSantis has established himself as one of the most popular large-state governors in the country despite taking considerable heat during the COVID-19 pandemic from critics who argued his low-key approach to handling the pandemic, overt focus on free markets at the expense of public health, and close relations to Donald Trump was doing a disservice to his state. Nonetheless, DeSantis was reelected by a healthy margin in 2022 and has been the speculation of many a presidential campaign discussion, especially after former President Donald Trump decided to not to run again in 2024.

In his introductory speech, the former Yale baseball player and Harvard Law School grad-turned-Naval Reserve JAG and Guantanamo Bay prosecutor declared, "As Governor of the great state of Florida, our state has become a "shining state on a hill" where opportunities are endless, families and businesses are flourishing, and residents are prospering at unprecedented levels". DeSantis continues, "As your next President, I will take the lessons learned and accomplishments made here in Florida, and bring that to all of America." Building a campaign around combined elements of "America First" and "Tea Party" economic principles, a strong defense of the Constitution, and a "peace through strength" foreign policy, DeSantis is seen as one of the frontrunners and has already scored early endorsements, with term-limited Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry endorsing the Governor. DeSantis also wins the endorsements of Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, who like DeSantis also was hesitant to enforce COVID restrictions during the pandemic, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, a favorite of Trump and Tea Party conservatives alike.

With DeSantis's announcement, the Republican primary has now evolved into a race of "Big 4" candidates: DeSantis, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and former Vice President Mike Pence, with several others competing in the second tier of candidates and others continuing to explore bids as well.

July 18, 2023
HILLARY CLINTON WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024
In an announcement to her supporters, former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced she will not run again for President. In announcing her widely anticipated decision, Clinton remarked, "There is still a lot of unfinished business when it comes to fair elections, a dynamic economy that works for everyone, and a society where dignity and decency are the norm, rule and standard, not the exception. At the same time, it is clear that Americans want to turn the page from the disastrous policies of Donald Trump, and while he has chosen to move on and not run for President again, his supporters still remain the same. To that extent, I will not be endorsing a candidate for President yet, and I myself will not be running for President in 2024."

Following news of Clinton's announcement, many high profile Democrats including President Biden, former President Barack Obama and his wife Michelle, Vice President Kamala Harris and Hillary's husband, former President Bill Clinton, take time to honor the former Secretary of State, with Bill remarking "My wife remains the most beautiful and most accomplished woman in the world, and I am forever grateful for her dedication to public service which will persist for generations to come". Not surprisingly, critics of the Clintons react in their usual tones, with Donald Trump remarking, "Thank you very much for your desire to serve our great country...Best wishes in your retirement. Hopefully, this is the last time Americans have to be bothered by both of you!"

July 23, 2023
SEN. SASSE ENDS EXPLORATORY BID, MAKES PRESIDENTIAL RUN OFFICIAL
On a Sunday afternoon at the Heartland of America Park in downtown Omaha with a small lake and the not-too-distant Missouri River shoreline behind him, Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska ripped the "expioratory" tag off his campaign and made his presidential bid official. Speaking before a crowd of hundreds, Sasse remarked, "With a generation of past leaders who sought division over integrity and sentiment over logic now fading out, the time is now for a new breed of conservative leadership rooted in clear principles free of craven desires for power. That is why I am proud to announce my candidacy for President of the United States, fittingly right here in the Heartland of America Park."

Known for his outspoken criticism of Donald Trump, whom the 51-year-old Sasse voted to convict in the second impeachment trial following the attack on the Capitol (and in the process, drawing fire from county parties and Trump supporters in his state), Sasse has nonetheless compiled a conservative voting record since his ascendence from President of Midland University, a Lutheran college in the town of Fremont that he helped to revive, to being elected to the Senate in 2014 on the backs of Tea Party support. Notably, Sasse's 2020 reelection, in which he beat back a Trumpian primary challenger to eventually defeat a scandal-plagued Democratic opponent, represented the largest over performance of any Republican Senate candidate that year, with Sasse even winning the Omaha-based 2nd District won by Joe Biden that year.

Nonetheless, while Sasse has gained a sizable amount of support from most conservatives in his state (especially with Trump no longer in the picture) and has gained plaudits for his "laser focus" on the national debt, China and free-market solutions to economic and environmental problems as well as his and his wife's decision to homeschool their three children, his vote to convict Trump is viewed as a liability in some conservative circles (especially those on the more populist and nationalist side of the conservative ledger), and many political pundits and prognosticators put Sasse's chances at near zero, with one source speculating "Maybe he'll peak in Iowa where he'll benefit and already does from TV exposure in Sioux City and Council Bluffs (Omaha TV market), but that's it".