Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[walleye26]

What's up with Ashland? Kelly seems to be doing way better than he ought to

I was thinking the same. My guess is they are the townships in the southern half. The city of Ashland is heavily D (white working class) and there’s a lot of tribal members on the reservations in the northern half.

[Wiz in Wis]

Where are yall seeing 72% of results?

Journal Sentinel for Kenosha county. DDHQ is also wrong in Dodge, percent in doesn't match vote totals.

[Sestak]

Winnebago seems excellent for Karofsky if accurate.

[Wiz in Wis]

Big if here, assuming DDHQ has Marathon right... but, if they do, with 78% in, Karofsky already has more raw votes than Neubauer did.

[Oryxslayer]

Kenosha, Rock, Marathon, Dodge, (EDIT) and St. Croixare the counties closest to finishing counting at both the AP and DDHQ. They therefore should be the focus of any serious analysis.

Karofsky is doing 2% better than Neubauer in Kenosha.

Kelly is doing 1% better than Hagedorn in Rock.

Karofsky is doing 7%(!) better in Marathon.

Kelly is doing 3% better in Dodge.

(EDIT) Karofsky doing 4% better in St. Croix.

[anthonyjg]

Just a couple of precincts.

What's up with Ashland? Kelly seems to be doing way better than he ought to

I was thinking the same. My guess is they are the townships in the southern half. The city of Ashland is heavily D (white working class) and there’s a lot of tribal members on the reservations in the northern half.

Gotcha, I thought it was more uniform.

[walleye26]

70% in for St. Croix and Kelly only winning 51-49. Big if that holds.

[Wiz in Wis]

Kenosha, Rock, Marathon, Dodge, (EDIT) and St. Croixare the counties closest to finishing counting at both the AP and DDHQ. They therefore should be the focus of any serious analysis.

Karofsky is doing 2% better than Neubauer in Kenosha.

Kelly is doing 3% better than Hagedorn in Rock.

Karofsky is doing 7%(!) better in Marathon.

Kelly is doing 3% better in Dodge.

(EDIT) Karofsky doing 4% better in St. Croix.

Look at JS for Dodge, not DDHQ, DDHQ numbers are too low.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With WOW and a few other Republican counties way more spent than Dane and Milwaukee Karofsky might have the edge.

[walleye26]

I know it’s only 1 precinct, but it looks odd to see Oconto blue.

[Gass3268]

Kenosha, Rock, Marathon, Dodge, (EDIT) and St. Croixare the counties closest to finishing counting at both the AP and DDHQ. They therefore should be the focus of any serious analysis.

Karofsky is doing 2% better than Neubauer in Kenosha.

Kelly is doing 1% better than Hagedorn in Rock.

Karofsky is doing 7%(!) better in Marathon.

Kelly is doing 3% better in Dodge.

(EDIT) Karofsky doing 4% better in St. Croix.

Beloit, Milton and Edgerton are all 100% out in Rock County.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Karnofsky moves over 70 in Dane.

Stop saying Karnofsky Anne Arundel

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Did Trump ever endorse Kelly?

[Oryxslayer]

Kenosha, Rock, Marathon, Dodge, (EDIT) and St. Croixare the counties closest to finishing counting at both the AP and DDHQ. They therefore should be the focus of any serious analysis.

Karofsky is doing 2% better than Neubauer in Kenosha.

Kelly is doing 3% better than Hagedorn in Rock.

Karofsky is doing 7%(!) better in Marathon.

Kelly is doing 3% better in Dodge.

(EDIT) Karofsky doing 4% better in St. Croix.

Look at JS for Dodge, not DDHQ, DDHQ numbers are too low.

Another DDHQ precinct error, adding the precincts to the total but not the votes.

Also I suspect there is something up with Kenosha's count, cause it's the only county of any size not on pace with 2019 in turnout, AND we didn't get any angry articles about the lack of polls there - for example, Green Bay. Perhaps they will be adding their VBM in a separate basket.

[Dr. Arch]

Kelly is not getting what he needs from WOW.

[Bidenworth2020]

Did Trump ever endorse Kelly?

Yes, and during a coronavirus briefing no less!

[Storr]

If, and that's a big if, this ends up backfiring on the GOP maybe Republicans won't try something like this again. Then again the legislature power grab constitutional amendments (to take away appointment powers from the Democratic Governor) in North Carolina failed, and Wisconsin Republicans still did this.

[Gracile]

None of the City of Madison's wards have reported yet, per the Dane County Clerk's website.

[n1240]

Did Trump ever endorse Kelly?

Trump claimed that they only tried to change the election date in Wisconsin because he endorsed Kelly lol.

[ajc0918]

Jill has this.

[n1240]

None of the City of Madison's wards have reported yet, per the Dane County Clerk's website.

Yeah and non-Madison areas in Dane went about 70-30 in 2019 while Madison went about 87-13 so it should bode pretty well for Karofsky there considering she's up 71-29 now

[Dr. Arch]

That 71% in Dane is without ANY of Madison. I think Karofsky has this.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Okay, this is feeling like the opposite of last year's race based on what's already being reported. Kelly has way more of his base votes in and isn't getting the margins he needs out of them anyway. I think Karofsky is the favorite at this point.

[Wiz in Wis]

Based on the fact that there are 0 votes on JS for Milwaukee Mayor, I have to assume that we don't have any city of Milwaukee vote there either.

[Dr. Arch]

Based on the fact that there are 0 votes on JS for Milwaukee Mayor, I have to assume that we don't have any city of Milwaukee vote there either.

Correct. This race is razor thin with neither Madison nor Milwaukee reporting.