Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[wbrocks67]

This seems... good for the Dems?

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1248270178951073792

[Pollster]

I know Karofsky raised a massive amount for this race, any idea how she spent it? Wouldn't be surprised if a huge chunk went to getting as many ballots mailed in Milwaukee as possible.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1248260192451670016

[Dr. Arch]

So can someone tl;dr the latest findings for all of us? Does it appear, from everything we know, that turnout seemed better then in the cities/suburbs than the more R-areas? or no?

In short, barring record rural turnout everywhere (doesn't look like it), yes. It seems Karofsky is favored.

[Aurelio21]

@Democrats and Democratic stragetists: Why don't you make an political add?: Electing Trump and Republicans is a risk to your personal health. The Roberts SCOTUS does not care about your well-being. Show them the boot in November. The Wisconsin decision should finally show how Liberals and Moderates that letting them get away with their power plays means paying a price.

[ajc0918]

This doesn't mean much but random people who are aggregating county / city turnout numbers on twitter think that Karofsky did what she needed to do. But it's close. Especially because not everyone is reporting turnout figures.  

[Bidenworth2020]

This doesn't mean much but random people who are aggregating county / city turnout numbers on twitter think that Karofsky did what she needed to do. But it's close. Especially because not everyone is reporting turnout figures.  

source?

[ajc0918]

This doesn't mean much but random people who are aggregating county / city turnout numbers on twitter think that Karofsky did what she needed to do. But it's close. Especially because not everyone is reporting turnout figures.  

source?

Keep in mind these are from RANDOM people who are tracking turnout themselves. Who knows how accurate their analysis is.

https://twitter.com/shownshrk/status/1248303479942262789?s=20

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248243975032471556?s=20

https://twitter.com/mrw71311/status/1248259073004449792?s=20

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1248288725110587392?s=20

[wbrocks67]

It would truly be poetic if Karofsky gets this win after all the ery that the Rs tried to pull this week

[Gass3268]

Looks like the City of Milwaukee is gonna get close to 100,000 voters:

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1248321432943235075?s=20

[ajc0918]

New figures from Dane County (Madison, WI). For reference Dane County delivered around 152,000 votes in the 2019 supreme court election. The appear to be on track to exceed 200,000 as mail ballots come in.

Edit: It's possible Dane + Milwaukee exceed 400,000 votes which would be around 100,000 more than in the 2019 election. If that happen it would be good for Karofsky.

https://twitter.com/shownshrk/status/1248315829424402432

[walleye26]

Assuming Karofsky wins, (which who knows without seeing rural data) I’ll be banging my head into a wall because the Dems didn’t show up last year to prevent Hagedorn from winning the SCOWIS race. Dems could have had a SCOWIS majority had they not blown it last year.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know why elections people on Twitter are trying to project election results based on only absentee reporting and only E-day voting in places where Dems will run up margins like Milwaukee and Dane. We have no clue what the E-day proportion of the vote looks like in most counties in Wisconsin. I think it's a bad way of setting expectations and then being sorely disappointed later (because basically every election nerd is a liberal).

[Gass3268]

I don't know why elections people on Twitter are trying to project election results based on only absentee reporting and only E-day voting in places where Dems will run up margins like Milwaukee and Dane. We have no clue what the E-day proportion of the vote looks like in most counties in Wisconsin. I think it's a bad way of setting expectations and then being sorely disappointed later (because basically every election nerd is a liberal).

Here's some more conservative places:

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1248260817537118208?s=20

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1248260139410391040?s=20

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1248258329970987013?s=20

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1248258080082726913?s=20

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248132765293387776?s=20

Brown County (Green Bay Absentee Number looks wrong)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm really trying not to get my hopes up here... things always seem to look good for the Democrats in Wisconsin and then it just all goes wrong.

[Virginiá]

I'm really trying not to get my hopes up here... things always seem to look good for the Democrats in Wisconsin and then it just all goes wrong.

Keep in mind that if Democrats win the judicial race, Republicans will likely just file a lawsuit to throw the results out because of the very problems they refused to take into consideration when Evers asked to delay the election. And they'll probably get their way based on who has the final say at both the state and federal level.

[ajc0918]

PredictIt markets are moving heavily toward Karofsky.

[Dr. Arch]

Dane has surpassed 50% turnout, with several days for more ballots to come in.

[DINGO Joe]

Regarding town vs county votes.  Are they affected by poll consolidation? 

[windjammer]

I'm really trying not to get my hopes up here... things always seem to look good for the Democrats in Wisconsin and then it just all goes wrong.

Keep in mind that if Democrats win the judicial race, Republicans will likely just file a lawsuit to throw the results out because of the very problems they refused to take into consideration when Evers asked to delay the election. And they'll probably get their way based on who has the final say at both the state and federal level.

I don't think they would be successful.

[wbrocks67]

Do we know what time they will start announcing results on Monday?

[ElectionsGuy]

Do we know what time they will start announcing results on Monday?

4pm

[Virginiá]

Keep in mind that if Democrats win the judicial race, Republicans will likely just file a lawsuit to throw the results out because of the very problems they refused to take into consideration when Evers asked to delay the election. And they'll probably get their way based on who has the final say at both the state and federal level.

I don't think they would be successful.

That would be a real shame and a major black eye for the idea of democracy if they didn't, imo. I still think these results should be thrown out, even if for different reasons than the GOP might want in the end. This kind of disparity cannot be allowed:

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-has-66-polling-sites-on-election-day-milwaukee-has-five-whats-the-deal/article_8868bacf-6697-5cf4-aa4f-d85fb37cf846.html

A city that normally has nearly 200 polling stations only has 5 open on election day. Not to mention Green Bay's 2-3 polling stations. The only way that is acceptable is if you've mailed everyone a ballot so they don't have to go out. And all of this happened on relatively short notice, too.

[Bidenworth2020]

Not that it is super relevant, but PredictIt now has Karnofsky trading at 59 cents on the dollar.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558328273342464

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558329611288578

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558330810970112

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558331935031296

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558333029736448

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558334128672770

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248558335219154944