Rankin County Mississippi

[Telesquare]

Do you see the county getting less Republican and possibly enough for a Dem to win statewide?

[Senator Golden]

I don't see Rankin County getting that much bluer over the next couple of decades. I do think that the Dems could narrow the republicans to the mid sixties there. I think if they want to win Mississippi they need to improve in Desoto which is showing more signs of a leftward trend, and increase black turnout which is much lower than white turnout. Rankin narrowing is definitely a possibility considering Biden did better than every dem since Clinton who was from neighboring Arkansas.

[Del Tachi]

Rankin is a tough-lift.  Hood won a respectable 35% in 2019 (compared to Biden's 27%) but there is nothing changing about the county that is making it friendlier to the Democrats other than the browning of Pearl, which is more-than being cancelled out by further exurbanization in Brandon/Florence.

Assuming Black voters continue to move-out of Jackson, Ridgeland and Clinton will remain their natural destinations.  That's enough to make Madison County competitive in future statewide elections where the Democrat runs well with suburban votes (like Hood did in 2019) but Metro Jackson isn't adding population fast enough for that to provide any kind of growing numeric advantage to the Democrats.  It's probably not even enough to undo Democratic losses resulting from the GOP trend in Northeast MS...