What would 2012 election look like if...............

[pbrower2a]

Unemployment is at 6.1, troops are partially out of Iraq, Health Care bill completely fails, Republicans take Senate and House and Obama's approval is at 52%.

He runs against a "do-nothing" Congress much as did Harry Truman in 1948, and wins decisively. Difference: There's no secession of Dixiecrats who are already GOP.

deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%
white                        too close to call  40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  

[pbrower2a]

unemployment around 7%, the healthcare bill controversy isn't even really thought about anymore, dems still control congress but by a slim majority, troops out of Iraq but Afghanistan is still kind of a mess, and Obama admitted to an affair in summer of 2011 (that ended in 2006). Approval around 55%

Approval around 55% -- Obama landslide, as that would result in about a 56-43 margin. 

[pbrower2a]

I love how nothing is Obama's fault in the press. The oil spill is Obama's Katrina. If I didn't know better and watched the coverage of Katrina, I'd think Bush caused it on purpose. Btw, Obama joking about LA rain in a time of disaster is not funny. I found it grossly offensive.

BP Corporation gets the fault for the oil rig catastrophe much as Massey Energy Corporation gets culpability for the recent coal mine catastrophe in West Virginia -- and for a bungled response. Hurricanes give much more warning to public officials than do coal mine explosions and oil rig failures.

Nobody says that Dubya caused the hurricane any more than Jimmy Carter gets blamed for the eruption of Mount St. Helens,  but he certainly handled the disaster ineptly. BP Corporation tried to shift blame in an effort to reduce the PR problem. That is ultimately bad business and bad administration.

 

[pbrower2a]

I'm not blaming anything on Obama. I'm being ironic about how Bush was perceived by the media after Katrina.

Right-wing media such as FoX treated Dubya with kid gloves. The rest either were waiting for an opportunity in which to excoriate a President that they did not like or followed the leader as things broke badly for him.