Official Michigan Megathread

[dmmidmi]

UAW asked Wittmer to reconsider, she said no.

I heard about this last night. This is embarrassing. Whitmer is probably waiting for 2018 to roll around.

[RogueBeaver]

Sabato moves guv to Lean R from Tossup.

[TX Conservative Dem]

It's 50-50 that Republicans sweep statewide offices in Michigan this fall, including some seats on the Michigan State Supreme Court

[windjammer]

Sabato moves guv to Lean R from Tossup.

I agree with Sabato. The MI gubernational seat isn't a toss up.

[dmmidmi]

Sabato moves guv to Lean R from Tossup.

Totally agree. Snyder has a clear advantage right now.

State of the State is tonight: http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2014/01/where_to_catch_gov_rick_snyder.html#incart_river_default

At one point, the Free Press mentioned that he might bring up reforming Michigan's no-fault auto insurance (http://www.freep.com/article/20140113/NEWS06/301130010/michigan-rick-snyder-state). There have been efforts to repeal no-fault in the past (including once at the ballot box), and they've all failed. I'm not sure why he would try to "reform" something that's fairly popular in an election year.

[dmmidmi]

Last night, for the first time, I saw an anti-Peters TV ad: http://youtu.be/IsLdhwwSwrQ

This should ramp up after Super Bowl Sunday.

[dmmidmi]

Here's the latest Senate race fundraising report: http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2014/01/democratic_senate_gary_peters.html

[ShadowRocket]

Not to sound like a concern troll, but I'm starting to become disappointed with Schauer. It just feels like he is letting a good oppurtunity slip away.

[Deus Naturae]

DGA to launch ad campaign against Snyder.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato crystal ball isn't the end all be all. I disagree with him on Mark Pryor's chances. Once Senate race heats up, so will the gov race.

[pbrower2a]

Not to sound like a concern troll, but I'm starting to become disappointed with Schauer. It just feels like he is letting a good opportunity slip away.

Michigan Democrats usually close the political deal late. The state always looks ripe for a Republican sweep; then around Labor Day the minorities and the unions organize get-out-the-vote drives.

How many times in 2008 did Barack Obama look as if he were going to lose Michigan? Once September rolled around, Michigan became a political disaster for the GOP.

Snyder and the Michigan GOP stabbed organized labor in the back on behalf of out-of-state interests, and he will pay for that with defeat.

[dmmidmi]

DGA to launch ad campaign against Snyder.

If you look at Schauer's Facebook page, he repeatedly beats the education/schools drum. We'll have to see whether or not this resonates with voters.

Not to sound like a concern troll, but I'm starting to become disappointed with Schauer. It just feels like he is letting a good oppurtunity slip away.

I've gotta be honest--I am, too. As of today, I'm really worried that Schauer will try to win on the cheap (like Bernero did). When your opponent is a millionaire who can (and will) easily raise an obscene amount of money, this may not be the best strategy.

[dmmidmi]

Snyder has officially declared his intention to run for re-election: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/its_official_michigan_gov_rick.html

[dmmidmi]

Snyder had an ad during the Super Bowl. If you want to check it out, it's here: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/02/snyder_super_bowl_michigan.html

I was a little confused about the snorkeling, too.

[dmmidmi]

When Rick Snyder announced his re-election plans, he decided what to do with part of the $971 million surplus that Michigan apparently has: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/02/michigan_budget_gov_rick_snyde.html

The average refund should be about $80. Seriously.

In 2011, eligibility for the homestead credit was decreased from $82,650 in total household income to $50,000 in total household resources.

How many votes will those $80 checks buy?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Dems will end up winning Pa, MI and IL and ME. Fl may go down to wire with Rick Scott huge cash on hand.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

http://blogs.detroitnews.com/politics/2014/02/06/darren-littell-gov-snyders-education-record-sterling/

An interesting article about Schauer and the Dems' attacks on Gov. Snyder over education.

[dmmidmi]

http://blogs.detroitnews.com/politics/2014/02/06/darren-littell-gov-snyders-education-record-sterling/

An interesting article about Schauer and the Dems' attacks on Gov. Snyder over education.

The truth is a little more complicated than that. Per pupil funding is down, but total spending is up: http://www.house.mi.gov/hfa/PDF/SchoolAid/Basics_of_the_FoundationAllowance_FY14_Sept2013.pdf

[dmmidmi]

http://www.freep.com/article/20140212/NEWS06/302120096/tax-relief-michigan-republicans-democrats-snyder-income-homestead-property

I'm pretty sure I know how Snyder could boost his poll numbers: FIX THE ROADS!

[dmmidmi]

Even though Snyder criticized Dave Agema's "discriminatory" language against homosexuals the other week, he is asking the Supreme Court to uphold Michigan's same-sex employee benefit ban for public employees: http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2014/02/gov_rick_snyder_asks_federal_j.html#incart_most-comments

He's trying to have it both ways. Let's see if this works.

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm really wondering how the upper peninsula will vote in 2014. In 2006, Granholm won all of its counties and in 2008, Obama won 8 counties in the UP. In 2010, it seemed the UP caught Obama Derangement Syndrome, as for the first time in at least 18 years, Michigan's 1st elected a Republican representative, and then in 2012, Romney won 53% of the vote.

As for Snyder, I'm pretty surprised he's doing this well for a guy with an underwater approval rating. He's at 42%/49%, and yet he's leading Schauer in the polls. His approval rating plunged after the Right to Work debacle, and I would have voted for him in 2014, but that's the kiss of death. I'm just glad that Michigan didn't get a Republican governor as insane as some of our neighbors did (Scott Walker in WI and John Kasich in OH), but after RTW, he's lost my vote permanently.

The biggest surprise, IMO is that Terri Lynn Land is somehow leading in the polls. Two years ago, Debbie Stabenow won 59% of the vote over Pete Hoekstra (whose hateful campaign ads still give me shivers to this day). I think that's going to be one of those cases like the North Carolina marriage amendment where the polls showed it being close when on election day it turned out as a landslide, and in this case I'm still picking Gary Peters to win.

The thing I don't get about my home state is why we're the opposite of West Virginia. WV has gone red in every presidential election since 2000, and yet both Senators are Democrats, and Democrats dominate the state legislature. Michigan is the exact opposite, where 27 of the last 31 years, Republicans have controlled both chambers of the legislature, and yet both Senators are Democrats and Michigan hasn't gone red in a Presidential election since 1988.

[Bojack Horseman]

New poll shows Schauer closing the gap, Snyder up by 3. Another poll shows Schauer up 7.

[pbrower2a]

The labor unions are peeved with Snyder. Whatever good he has done in Michigan  (OK -- it's the OBAMA RECOVERY, and not solely the result of Rick Snyder!) he has offended the politically-active unions with the Right to Work (for starvation wages) law. They usually begin their vote drives with the aid of large African-American activist groups around Labor Day, and they can make life tough for Republicans.

Because of the shaky Governor and the open Senate seat, Michigan Democrats are going to ring lots of doorbells in September and October.

Mark Schauer begins with a huge disadvantage in that he was from a district away from the great number of Michigan voters in the Southeast. But if he could win in Battle Creek, he can pick up the votes in Greater Detroit, Lansing, Flint, Saginaw, and Ann Arbor. Friendly chats that can customize the discussion are worth all the Orwellian ads that right-wing carpetbag groups can offer on TV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem for Schauer as well as Burke and Fitzgerald is that 3 incumbants usually are def at a time. Corbett, Scott and LePage are sucking all the money away from the other Midwestern states. The only one left to defend is Quinn and he usually wins in polls on Election Day, not before.

On the other hand, Peters should def Land.

[Deus Naturae]

RGA has new ad out against Schauer.