A totally "Open" Presidential Race in 2008 - First since 1952..?

[The Vorlon]

2008 will be the first totally "Open" Presidential race since, by my count, 1952 where there was not a sitting President or VP running..

1956 - Ike was the incumbant - Status Quo Result
1960 - Nixon was the sitting VP - Change
1964 - Johnson was the Incumbant - Status Quo Result
1968 - Humphrey was the sitting VP  - Change
1972 - Nixon was the incumbant - Status Quo Result
1976 - Ford was the sort of Incumbant  - Change
1980 - Carter was the incumbant  - Change
1984 - Reagan was the Incumbant - Status Quo Result
1988 - Bush was the sitting VP - Status Quo Result
1992 - Bush was the Incumbant  - Change
1996 - Clinton was the Incumbant - Status Quo Result
2000 - Gore was the sitting VP  - Change
2004 - Bush was the Incumbant   - Status Quo Result

Status Quo won 7 times
Change won 6 Times

As the first race in a hald century without a "Status Quo" candidate it certainly opens up possibilities.

For example, at least in theory, both the Dem AND GOP candidates could both campaign as agents of change.

Should be an interesting race!

[Erc]

Should prove to be the first interesting double-primary season since...1988?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cool :-)

Now if only the state legislatures would see sense and un-gerrymander the Congressional Districts...

[The Vorlon]

Cool :-)

Now if only the state legislatures would see sense and un-gerrymander the Congressional Districts...

The degree to which the Huse of Representatives is Gerrymandered is the truly astonishing political scandal that nobody reports (primarily because both parties are equally guilty)

Over 400+ out of the 435 seats have been made essentailly bomb proof and barring major scandal or a massive landslide are locked in.

Here is a list of EVERY House race in the entire nation decided by less than 10% (excludes 3 of those whacky run-offs from Louisiania)

House Races with a less than 10% gap

California 20 was decided by 8 points
Colorado 3 was decided by 3%,
Colorado 4 was decided by 6%
Connecticutt 4 was decided by 4%
Connecticutt 2 was decided by 8%
Georgia 12 was decided by 4%
Illinois 8 was decided by 4%
Indiania 2 was decided by 8%
Indiania 6 was decided by 9%
Indiania 9 was basically tied
Minnesota 6 was decided by 8%
Missouri 3 was decided by 8%
New York 27 was decided by 2%
Oregon 5 was decided by 9%
Pennsylvania 6 was decided by 2%
South Dakota 1 was decided by 7%
Texas 17 was decided by 3%
Washington 8 was decided by 4%

There were only 18 semi-close races in the entire country...

House Races with a less than 5% gap

Colorado 3 was decided by 3%,
Connecticutt 4 was decided by 4%
Georgia 12 was decided by 4%
Illinois 8 was decided by 4%
Indiania 9 was basically tied
New York 27 was decided by 2%
Pennsylvania 6 was decided by 2%
Texas 17 was decided by 3%
Washington 8 was decided by 4%

If you use less than 5% as the criteria, there were only 9 competitive House races in the whole country...

[Bob Dole '96]

Kansas-3 is usually a nail biter but Kobach ran a bad race here.  Was less than 5 in 00 and 02 and Bush won by 20 here.

[jimrtex]

Cool :-)

Now if only the state legislatures would see sense and un-gerrymander the Congressional Districts...

The degree to which the Huse of Representatives is Gerrymandered is the truly astonishing political scandal that nobody reports (primarily because both parties are equally guilty)

There are none from Iowa on your list.  Or for example, take the Alabama 5th CD.   Cramer (D) won by 46%, yet it appears that Bush had about a 58-42 lead.

You either have to have term limits (which is what makes the presidential race "open"), or you have to redistrict incumbents out of office, as was done in Texas.

[Gustaf]

Yep. Usually the VPs lose, that is after 2 terms the challenger usually wins, as happened in 2000, 1976 (arguably), 1968, 1960, 1952 and 1920.

[Democratic Hawk]

2008 can't come soon enough for this political junkie!

Dave

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Cool :-)

Now if only the state legislatures would see sense and un-gerrymander the Congressional Districts...

The degree to which the Huse of Representatives is Gerrymandered is the truly astonishing political scandal that nobody reports (primarily because both parties are equally guilty)

HEY!  Just because every GOP-held CD in Wisconsin got more Republican, and every Dem-held CD in Wisconsin got more Democratic, does NOT mean there's Gerrymandering going on OK?

:-)

Anyway, it's not "Gerrymanding."  It's called "Protecting your ass(ets)."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

As the first race in a hald century without a "Status Quo" candidate it certainly opens up possibilities.

For example, at least in theory, both the Dem AND GOP candidates could both campaign as agents of change.

This is all assuming Condi doesn't get the nod for the GOP.

Heck, if Cheney's heart blows up, Condi might well be appointed VP.

[The Vorlon]

Cool :-)

Now if only the state legislatures would see sense and un-gerrymander the Congressional Districts...

The degree to which the Huse of Representatives is Gerrymandered is the truly astonishing political scandal that nobody reports (primarily because both parties are equally guilty)

HEY!  Just because every GOP-held CD in Wisconsin got more Republican, and every Dem-held CD in Wisconsin got more Democratic, does NOT mean there's Gerrymandering going on OK?

:-)

Anyway, it's not "Gerrymanding."  It's called "Protecting your ass(ets)."

The US is fairly close to a 50/50 nation.

Yet out of 435 House seats, 87% were decided by more than a 60/40 margin.

Ok..

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The US is fairly close to a 50/50 nation.

Yet out of 435 House seats, 87% were decided by more than a 60/40 margin.

Actually, that's just because both the urban areas and the countryside are split roughly 70/30.  The only 50/50 CDs are suburban ones.

Not saying we aren't Gerrymandered up the wazoo.  Just pointing out that the nation is highly ideologically heterogeneous.

[Alcon]

That's exactly what I meant to say Beef, but somehow I managed to post just quoting Vorlon. The holidays must be getting to me...