Gonna go with the low end on this poll. Trump's advantage stemmed from his ability to create a very particular coalition of voters that I'm unconvinced anyone else from the GOP will be able to create. I'm not saying we'll revert to 2012 coalitions or anything, but I think the base of the GOP nominee in 2024 will be a bit less optimized for the electoral college than Trump's.
Why should we believe the Democrat coalition will hold; we’ve already come to a consensus on This forum that they are A.) The weaker coalition and B.) they only showed up to remove Trump.
Poll
