Which state do you think would vote Democratic first: Arizona or Georgia?

[DS0816]

Both Arizona and Georgia can get flipped to the Democratic column in the same election cycle.

Dating back to 1988 (because 1980 and 1984 are not applicable), these two states have been fairly closely connected with each other in their margins.

This is the case since 1996 with both Virginia and Colorado…and they became critical to the battleground electoral map of Election 2008. (Since 1996, they have been no greater than 3.53% in spread from each other.)

Since 1988, with cycles numbering seven, Arizona and Georgia's average margins spread have been 3.27%.

1988
ARIZONA R+21.21
GEORGIA R+20.25
(Spread:  0.96%)

1992
ARIZONA R+1.95
GEORGIA D+0.59 — Pickup
(Spread:  2.54%)

1996
ARIZONA D+2.23 — Pickup
GEORGIA R+1.17 — Pickup
(Spread:  3.40%)

2000
ARIZONA R+6.28 — Pickup
GEORGIA R+11.69
(Spread:  5.41%)

2004
ARIZONA R+10.47
GEORGIA R+16.60
(Spread:  6.13%)

2008
ARIZONA R+8.48
GEORGIA R+5.20
(Spread:  3.28%)

2012
ARIZONA R+9.03
GEORGIA R+7.80
(Spread:  1.23%)


SPREADS
0.96%
2.54%
3.40%
5.41%
6.13%
3.28%
+ 1.23%

Total: 22.95 / 7 = 3.27%

[DS0816]

I voted for … "Both would flip together in the same election."

I would have preferred that greenforest32's option had read, ""Both could/would flip together in the same election."