By 2016 I would hope the Libertarians would control a state. We'll see.
What state do you think they could win?
Siege
If I had to venture a guess I would say Texas or Florida.
I'm told we're developing a strong powerbase in Texas, so that might be a possibility.
How could you forget about New Hampshire? Or are you assuming it will simply leave the Union?
Florida and Texas have too many religious conservatives to ever go Lib. The states most likely to turn yellow:
1. New Hampshire
2. Alaska
3. Idaho
4. Nevada
5. Montana
6. Wyoming
7. Oregon
The only double-digit state I could see ever going yellow would be Wisconsin, based on the strong showing Ed Thompson had in 2002. Although Ed was helped by name recognition, and a general distaste for both Doyle and McCallum. I'm not sure if that's a sign of LP life in the state.
This also would only happen under the following circumstances:
1. The Republicans get increasingly Populist (they are moving in that direction)
2. The Democrats get increasingly Left-Liberal.
3. The LP moderates a lot of its positions.
4. The health care problem solves itself.
In this case, the LP moves into the economic Right vacuum that the Republicans create, and attract lots of Western-Wing Republicans. They may even attract some East-Coast moderates, making them much stronger in New Jersey and Connecticut - but not strong enough ever to "take over" those states.
Actually, in this scenario, the LP and Republicans will probably merge, since this would leave the Democrats in full control of Washington. Two parties are simply how this country's political system runs.
