Fun Facts from the Scottish Election Study 2011

[afleitch]

Urban Vote (Regions)

SNP 43
LAB 28
CON 11
GRN 7
LIB 4

Rural Vote (Regions)

SNP 45
LAB 25
CON 14
LIB 6
GRN 4

Voting by Age (Regions) 18-34/35-54/55+

SNP 43/47/42
LAB 24/28/26
CON 7/10/17
LIB 8/4/5
GRN 10/6/2

Voting by Class (Regions) AB/C1/C2DE

SNP 41/41/47
LAB 25/25/28
CON 14/17/9
LIB 5/8/4
GRN 8/6/4

Church of Scotland

SNP 44
LAB 26
CON 15
LIB 6
GRN 3

Roman Catholic

SNP 43
LAB 36
CON 9
GRN 3
LIB 2

No Religion

SNP 47
LAB 25
CON 9
GRN 7
LIB 5

SNP v Labour Vote by National Identity

Scottish Not British - 66/17
More Scot than Brit - 49/28
Equal 29/33
More Brit than Scot 22/28
Brit not Scot 24/35
Other 31/23

Voting Retention

Voted Party in 2007 and in 2011

SNP 89
CON 75
LAB 69
LIB 35

Who Lib Dem voters in 2007 voted for in 2011

SNP 37
LIB 35
LAB 22
CON 6

Good Job minus Bad Job

SNP Government 2007-2011 +36
Labour Government 1997-2010 -10
Labour if in Scottish Government -12

Evaluation of Campaign 0=Positive 5=Negative

SNP 2.2
CON 3.3
LIB 3.5
LAB 3.8

[republicanism]

I would have expected the SNP to be much stronger in rural areas than in urban areas. In general, the data doesn't show a clear cut voter profile of the SNP, except for the "national identity" thing.

[joevsimp]

good stuff, does this sort of data exist for the previous elections? I'd like to have a closer look at trends in the green vote (I suspect former labour voters in 2003 returning to the fold or switching to the snp in the last two)

and before anyone comments on the "class" statistics, that scheme is clearly tripe, I can be classed as B, C1 or C2 depending on how you look at things and take my/your personal prejudices into account

[bore]

The really interesting thing about those statistics is how the SNP wipes the floor everywhere, never falling below 40 % and pleasing all those different types of people, you have to wonder whether they will be able to continue that after 4 years of government, but anyway very interesting data.

[afleitch]

good stuff, does this sort of data exist for the previous elections? I'd like to have a closer look at trends in the green vote (I suspect former labour voters in 2003 returning to the fold or switching to the snp in the last two)

and before anyone comments on the "class" statistics, that scheme is clearly tripe, I can be classed as B, C1 or C2 depending on how you look at things and take my/your personal prejudices into account

There are self identified class stats I can dig out. I'm trying to collate results from the 2007 study. The biggest suprise was the Catholic vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thing is, the general distribution of the SNP vote has always been fairly uniform, much more so than for other parties (in Scotland and also elsewhere in Britain). Which is sometimes a problem for them, but in 2011...

[joevsimp]

There are self identified class stats I can dig out. I'm trying to collate results from the 2007 study. The biggest suprise was the Catholic vote.

what's surprising about it?

[minionofmidas]

Afleitch probably kidded himself into thinking that tradition had eroded much further than it has.

Was there data for "other" on the religion question? Obviously it'd be a mixed bunch, but I suppose other (non-Anglican) Protestants would predominate in it. (I don't suppose "none" stands for "other or none". Figures don't really look like it.)

[afleitch]

Was there data for "other" on the religion question? Obviously it'd be a mixed bunch, but I suppose other (non-Anglican) Protestants would predominate in it. (I don't suppose "none" stands for "other or none". Figures don't really look like it.)

Still to be released I'm afraid. The only subset they can release of sufficient size are Church of England/Episcopalian. In 2007 that was 44% Tory on the Constituency vote and 33% on the list against 11/11 for the SNP, 29/25 for Labour and 16/9 for the Lib Dems

The Catholic constituency vote was 51% Labour in 2007 v 46% on the list. From what's been released so far the Labour vote fell by 10 points which is the biggest single drop for Labour in any demographic group released so far IIRC

Change on 2007

Urban Vote (Regions)

SNP +14
LAB -7
CON -1
GRN No Data
LIB -7

Rural Vote (Regions)

SNP +7
LAB +6
CON -5
LIB -8
GRN No Data

Voting by Class (Regions) AB/C1/C2DE

SNP +15/+7/+10
LAB -3/-3/-6
CON -4/+5/0
LIB -7/-5/-3

Church of Scotland

SNP +9
LAB 26
CON 15
LIB 6
GRN 3

Roman Catholic

SNP +14
LAB -10
CON -1
GRN No Data
LIB -3

No Religion

SNP +15
LAB -3
CON -3
GRN No Data
LIB -8

SNP v Labour Vote by National Identity

Scottish Not British - +6/-4
More Scot than Brit - +15/-3
Equal +13/-6
More Brit than Scot +16/-10
Brit not Scot +16/+4
Other - No Data

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing to be aware of when looking at this type of thing is that if the number is higher to start with, then negative electoral movement (in terms of percentage points) will always tend to look stronger in comparison to other groups.

[afleitch]

Interesting that Labour do best among Catholics....aren't they supposed to be in favour of independence?

Quite the opposite. Labour 'unionism' has always been more palatable to the Catholics in Scotland in a way that it hasn't been in Northern Ireland. For a very long time Scotland was politically and institutionally Presbyterian at all levels of government and public life. There was a fear that Catholicism would be marginalised in an independent or even devolved Scotland in a similar manner as was the case in Northern Ireland (Northern Irish Catholics broadly welcomed the suspension of the Assembly/Home Rule in the 70's) The SNP polled only 12% amongst Catholics in the October 1974 SES.

The SNP had to detoxify their brand which they managed to do somewhat in 1992, though this anecdotally at least took a knock with the Monklands Affair in 1994.

They appear, for now to have cracked it

For curiosity sake look at the census results for Catholicism in Glasgow in 2001;

[ObserverIE]

Northern Irish Catholics broadly welcomed the suspension of the Assembly/Home Rule in the 70's

More exactly, they did in 1972.

1974 was a different matter altogether.