I don't think Hispanic turnout is going to drop 8%.
But I appreciate muon2 putting together a potential Trump win.
Yeah, I don't see Hispanic turnout dropping at all from 2012, let alone 8%. That is just totally at odds with all of the available evidence.
These are the percentages of the voter eligible population that voted since 1980 according to Dr. Michael McDonalds US Elections Project:
1980 54.2 1982 42
1984 55.2 1986 38.1
1988 52.8 1990 38.4
1992 58.1 1994 41.1
1996 51.7 1998 38.1
2000 54.2 2002 39.5
2004 60.1 2006 40.4
2008 61.6 2010 41
2012 58.2 2014 35.9
The last three presidential elections have been historically high in the era since suffrage was lowered to 18. Swings of 5-6% up or down are not unusual. 1988 had uninspiring candidates after two terms of a highly motivating president. 1996 had a Dem president fighting off scandal charges vs an uninspiring Pub nominee. Neither of those cycles had any major economic or other crisis (eg 9/11 for 2004) to move voters to the polls, which is also true this cycle.
I used an 8% Hispanic drop as something between a 5% white drop and 10% black drop. If I drop the Hispanics only 4%, less than the population as a whole, Trump still wins on the calculator assuming he takes 70% of non-college educated whites.
You assume this is a temporary blip. But to me it looks more like increased polarization or whatever has created a permanently higher level of turnout. 2012 for example wasn't super inspiring and still saw massive turnout.
