UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

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Electoral Calculus have done an analysis of how the results would have looked on the provisional 2018 boundaries.

Headline figure: C 298 Lab 245 SNP 32 SF 9 DUP 7 LD 7 PC 1 Ind 1 Grn 0, which is three seats short of a majority for the Conservatives but enough to govern alone as the combined opposition without Sinn Fein is only 293 seats.

Ugh, of f**king course it would help the Tories.

What are the odds that this abomination ever comes to pass now that the Tories don't have a majority on their own?

Probably not high because these boundaries really hurt the DUP.

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For Tony:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(England)

Vote totals for each English region are there, as well as swings. They don't have detailed English region results in 2015, I'm afraid.

They are available on Principal Fish

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Opinion poll graph since 1943 I made.

Beware if you open it if you have a slug computer like mine. The file is moderately large.

http://orig01.deviantart.net/a05d/f/2017/190/3/1/1943_2017_graph_of_uk_polls_by_thumboy21-dbfnp07.png

Source:
https://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

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2010-2014 stands out in just how many polls were commissioned.

True, and ironically it was also a polling disaster.

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Opinion poll graph since 1943 I made.

Beware if you open it if you have a slug computer like mine. The file is moderately large.

http://orig01.deviantart.net/a05d/f/2017/190/3/1/1943_2017_graph_of_uk_polls_by_thumboy21-dbfnp07.png

Source:
https://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

Awesome!  I'm intrigued by the period in 1981 when the Liberals were actually ahead in the polls.  Wow.

Yeah. Also interesting how the Conservatives were able to go from 3rd place to leading by a landslide almost overnight. I bet Theresa May is begging for a Falklands moment.

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Opinion poll graph since 1943 I made.

Beware if you open it if you have a slug computer like mine. The file is moderately large.

http://orig01.deviantart.net/a05d/f/2017/190/3/1/1943_2017_graph_of_uk_polls_by_thumboy21-dbfnp07.png

Source:
https://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

On thing that was always weird to me was that the 1945 result was considered a shock.  It seems that in 1943-1945 LAB was well ahead of CON in the polls but it seems that the Churchill and CON were convinced that they would win.  I assume the reason for this was that  Churchill was convinced the personal vote for him would overcome the party poll deficit. 

Yeah. I recall his approval ratings were something like 80%. If a modern politician had that they would be Supreme Leader for life!

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Great work! It really shows the dramatic rise of Corbyn during the last election. Perhaps ironically, the only other improvement in any party's performance in the entire graph is Thatcher's post-Falklands (Malvinas?) recovery. Can't imagine either side would appreciate that comparison very much, though

Thanks!

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One thought I had about this election is that there was a consensus that  Brown should have called an election after the 2007 Labour conference.  Failure to do so dogged him the next few years and setup defeat in 2010.  Perhaps given what happen to May in 2017 how Brown handled or should have handled the  2007 Labour conference might now be viewed differently?

I doubt it.

Brown still should have called an election, even with this hindsight. Theresa May's decision to call the election was not in itself a mistake, it was pretty much a no brainer, the mistake was her historically bad campaign where she had nothing good to say on the economy, her only strength being Brexit, that combined with the very good campaign of Jeremy Corbyn. It's unlikely that such a disparity in campaign quality would occur in 2007.