GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another good AJC article on the race: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/national-implications-push-georgia-special-election-into-spotlight/8FKNlMjuDqU3zyepU5ZJZK/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another Clout Research poll:

Ossoff 41%
Gray 17%
Handel 15%
Hill 10%
Moody 9%

That's the first poll I've seen with another R leading Handel in...I think this whole race.

Clout's a pretty bad pollster.  538 rates them at C-.

Speaking of 538, they just published an analysis of the race: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/handicapping-the-georgia-6-special-election/

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?

There were about 55K early votes.  This number may go a bit higher as some absentee ballots are returned today and tomorrow.  In the last midterm election in the District, there were about 210K total votes.  But that was a regular election rather than a special (so turnout may be lower this time).  OTOH, it wasn't at all competitive (so turnout may be higher this time).  Pick one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?

There were about 55K early votes.  This number may go a bit higher as some absentee ballots are returned today and tomorrow.  In the last midterm election in the District, there were about 210K total votes.  But that was a regular election rather than a special (so turnout may be lower this time).  OTOH, it wasn't at all competitive (so turnout may be higher this time).  Pick one.

Another reason to think turnout will be higher than what you'd expect is that the district is educated and fairly white. Education correlates highly with midterm voting, as does being older and whiter. Now, that may be different in the age of trump, but I think it's safe to say turnout will be healthy.

More on the GA-6 registered voter population and how it's changed since the November election: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/despite-attention-georgia-6th-district-doesn-have-many-new-voters/H3pyVCmVAW6nJ3jMPAVyCJ/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just to be clear, Ossoff would need 50% + 1 vote to win tomorrow right?

So if 50,000 people voted, he'd need 25,001 votes to win outright, correcT?

That is correct.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What precinct will Jon Ossoff be voting at?

Ossoff doesn't currently live in the district; he lives somewhere near Emory University, which his girlfriend attends.  He's pledged to move to the district after the election (assuming he wins, I suppose).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did anyone ever discuss that Ossoff is very attractive? I'm kinda in love tbh regardless of his politics...

Anyways CW seems to be that he's DoA if this goes to a runoff. Anyone else feel that getting to 50+1 in the runoff will be easier than cracking 50+1 today? Just don't see how he can get past 47-48% today.

I agree with you.  I don't see him getting there today, but the runoff is probably a coin flip.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fulton County seeking to extend voting hours at two precincts due to problems: http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/6th-district-vote-fulton-seeks-extend-polling-hours-dekalb-and-cobb-smooth/frwd3lbSgVaVuHR7xSF32L/

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is "pouring buckets" in Sandy Springs.

Not widespread, though.  It's been beautiful here (near the northern edge of the district) all day so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP results by County: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/GA_Page_0418.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

In the counties as a whole, Clinton won Cobb 48/46, Fulton 68/27, and DeKalb 79/17. But the district just skates through part of each county, so those numbers aren't really that helpful. Still, Ossoff should do better in DeKalb than in Fulton, and better in Fulton than in Cobb.

Harry Enten estimates Ossoff needs 43 in Cobb, 49 in Fulton, and 60 in DeKalb to reach a majority tonight: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-georgia-6-special-election/

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/854417128773918720

[GeorgiaModerate]

Do we have any turnout reports from Republican areas?

Only report we got from the Republican county is than they asked for voting to be allowed for two more hours, due to "technical issues".

No, that was in Fulton County, which is the middle of the three in party leaning.  Cobb is the most Republican, DeKalb the most Democratic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't feel good about this race the expectations has gotten way to high.

Expecting Ossoff to win outright *is* too high an expectation.  That's not to say it can't happen; it's probably no more unlikely than a Trump win appeared to be on Nov. 6.  I'd guess that Ossoff would be satisfied with anything over 45%.  That would put him in pretty good shape for the runoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The AJC will be doing live updates at http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/04/18/live-updates-georgias-6th-district-special-election/.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Turnout Count Update for Congressional Districts 6: Total as of 5 pm: 16,295

Is this the entire District or just DeKalb County?

It was tweeted by @DeKalbVotes, so I assume it's just the DeKalb portion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DeKalb is the rightmost county when you look at a map, but it's the leftmost politically.  Cobb is just the opposite.  This made me think of the wonderful Johnny Cash song "The One on the Right is on the Left": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDSN1F72QU4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Greg Bluestein‏ @bluestein
Tea leaves: Dems in #GA06 are buoyed by especially high turnout in Sandy Springs precinct that overwhelmingly backed Nunn in '14. #gapol

High dem ED turnout in delkalb is to be expected considering the EV was anemic due to limited availability of early voting spots.

Sandy Springs is in Fulton County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What time are results gonna start coming in? My bad if this was asked recently

Polls close at 7pm EDT.  We'll probably get EV results quickly after that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

  I find it amazing that long lines could develop in that the congressional election is the only thing on the ballot, correct?  If that's right it shouldn't take long for people to get in and vote and be done, not like those California style ballot marathons that we enjoy so much.

There are also some local elections in parts of the district, some of which are getting a lot of local attention.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/04/18/live-updates-georgias-6th-district-special-election/  (6:15 update)

[GeorgiaModerate]

One of the issues without turnout in a jungle is that it may or may not be enough to get over the 50 mark.

If this was the runoff, it would be a concern re the sandy precincts. The question is whether the turnout disparities can improve ossof's margin by 6-7 points.

That depends on whether the turnout level in these two precincts is representative of other precincts that look similar to them.  If it is (and that's a big if) then the Democrats could be in for a big night.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm hoping Ossoff gets over 50% for many reasons, but also because having to wait another two months for election day is agonizing.

American elections are too long, dammit.

two months is a bizarre time period, imo.

Why can't a runoff only be mere days/week after the jungle?

Georgia (I don't know about other states) is required to allow plenty of time for overseas military ballots to be received.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good thing for Ossoff is that most of the GOP strongholds are still bottleneck. 400 is a nightmare between 4 to 7.

Old joke: the evening rush hour in ATL starts at 3:30.  Except on Friday, when it starts on Thursday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good thing for Ossoff is that most of the GOP strongholds are still bottleneck. 400 is a nightmare between 4 to 7.

What do you mean?

Georgia Highway 400, the expressway that runs through the north Fulton suburbs -- and the further north you go, the more Republican they are.  Presumably he's thinking that this will delay some of the GOP voters from getting home to vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good thing for Ossoff is that most of the GOP strongholds are still bottleneck. 400 is a nightmare between 4 to 7.

Old joke: the evening rush hour in ATL starts at 3:30.  Except on Friday, when it starts on Thursday.

haha.

Does Atlanta literally have the worst traffic in the first world?

Maybe not, but it's probably in the top 5.