De Blasio vs. Bush

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it'd be closer to a Bush-2004 type victory than a Bush-1988 type victory.  the Dem floor is pretty high these days.  though Jeb could win a number of 'swing states' by razor-thing margins and approach 325 EVs.

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De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat.

he managed the sitting Democratic president's wife's Senate campaign in 2000.  it doesn't get much more "mainstream" than that.

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De Blasio is NOT a mainstream Democrat. He's closer to a more belligerent, less experienced Sanders.

This.  De Blasio would do very poorly among police, which is definitely a potent disadvantage.

there are about 765k deputized state and local officers in the USA.  the popular vote totaled 130m last time around.

...and I imagine this sub-group votes 3:2 or 2:1 Republican to begin with.  it's disproportionately male and white, to say nothing else.

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The only reason he won the Mayoralty of New York City is because Congressman Anthony Weiner defeated himself with his own behavior.

Weiner wasn't his main competition.  the frontrunner was the sitting Speaker of the City Council, Christine Quinn.

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we really do have a bunch of idiots chirping around, don't we?

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yes, there probably are at least tens of thousands of people like that.  so?

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he's not "ideologically extreme".  he played the part of the progressive to win the Dem primary, because Dem primary voters, especially in major cities, support major changes to the status quo and he proved able to say what they wanted to hear (but largely unable to do what they wanted him to do).

for otherwise-Democratic law enforcement personnel to make any kind of difference anywhere, the margin would have to be razor-thin to begin with, such that a dozen other factors could be pointed to as well.

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We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.

there's every indication that the Dem floor is high and getting higher.  Dems have outperformed the GOP since 1988.  5/6 PV wins; only one GOP majority (50.7% at that).