Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[SoLongAtlas]

Not likely with TX but if he keeps sliding this might be the map.

[SoLongAtlas]

^ Montana is too entrenched with libertarians/conservatives to flip. That and the lack of population and big pop cities is why I still have it as R. For Missouri, HC got only 38.14% in 2016 so it is long gone for any Dem for a considerable period of time, even in a landslide. It votes like Appalachia, essentially.

[SoLongAtlas]

Do you think his numbers will dip below freezing?

Eventually. Remember in January how people weee mocking the idea that Trump would hit below 40? Lol

I think it depends on the time horizon:

Eventually: yes, 100%
Soon (next 3 months): no, not likely - baring a major, sudden recession or the pee tape.

Three months may be possible given the trajectory we're going and constant terrible headlines from self-inflicted wounds (that anyone would be foolish to think will just suddenly go away). He's gone from mid-40's to about mid-30's in six months. Dropping another ~5% or so isn't really unreasonable by November. Hell, if there's a recession or a foreign policy disaster, it may even be likely. But if I was to guess now, I'd say wait until spring 2018 or so til it drops to low 30's and disapproval is consistently breaking 60%.

Agree but that is predicated on no war, Trump would get a RATF bounce from a US-NK war.

[SoLongAtlas]

Quinnipiac poll:

Approve 33% (-7)
Disapprove 61% (+6)

All-time low.

These 60%+ disapprovals coming in hot today

He's at 33/65 with college whites and 43/50 with non-college whites. I would like to see their congressional ballot numbers with that.

RCP has the 2018 generic vote at D+8.9 so not wipeout territory but still a bad day for the GOP.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

[SoLongAtlas]

What would be the point of no return approval number? 30%? I think if Trump gets too low he will pull an LBJ and not run for reelection.

[SoLongAtlas]

His trendlines are closest to Gerald Ford (who lost reelection). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

How Trump compares with past presidents interactive -> click the 1 year option -> scroll down

[SoLongAtlas]

So the only way I can see him winning reelection is against Warren or Harris and playing the SJW vs. real American "Keep America Great" (His actual 2020 slogan) card. It could work but not if he's down into the 30s or below.

I do think he'll get a primary challenger but if it gets too low, I think Trump will bow out for Pence. If he is sure to lose, he won't run to not go out as a loser.

[SoLongAtlas]

Gallup

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (-1)

Four more until freezing

[SoLongAtlas]

The common idea that older millennials would be open to the GOP would be true if they GOP would moderate a la Huntsman, etc. but since that is not happening they won't and will stay Dem in huge numbers (analogous to the FDR Dem coalition). I am an older millennial and voted for Dem for the first time in '16 and support Northam here in VA because of how far to the right the GOP has gone.

I would, however, support a Centrist or Moderate Party should the GOP split in half, or should those parties become a real thing here in the US but that is some time off, imo.

[SoLongAtlas]

@Mondale, that graphic is telling and further provides the evidence of a Balkanization of America. The fact that high % of Trump voters say white persecution is a thing here in the US is mind-boggling but they really do believe it. Per my other post in the other thread, the die-hard GOP is at the us vs. them stage at this point.

[SoLongAtlas]

@Mondale, that graphic is telling and further provides the evidence of a Balkanization of America. The fact that high % of Trump voters say white persecution is a thing here in the US is mind-boggling but they really do believe it. Per my other post in the other thread, the die-hard GOP is at the us vs. them stage at this point.

I'll go farther. That poll is super scary. Even as pessimistic as I am, I could hardly believe those numbers.

I mean, almost HALF of the respondents agree with the INSANE proposition that there is "a lot of dicrimination against white people". I mean, for f**k's sake. How ignorant would you have to be to honestly believe that. Jesus.

It will only get worse as they continue to push this crap and the US sees more changes (see figure below) but will improve once the crazies start to diminish as a percent of the US population



I think we are heading to a Balkanization or a South African situation in American politics.

[SoLongAtlas]

I think it will be big among the "remember when" crowd and huge in the South. We may end up with a revivalist "The South Will Rise Again" crowd, supported by many more people. Already it has been propped up in Central and SW VA (Confederate flags popping up all over the place) due to the us vs. them angle and lack of economic opportunity.