George Pataki (R-NY) vs. Evan Bayh (D-IN)

[ATFFL]

Pataki would have an early edge from the name recognition of being the governor of NY.  Nothing huge, but an edge.

If the GOP money machine kicked in behind him he could also have a money edge.

Bayh would have the benefit of having been both a state executive and a federal senator.  If he remembers how to talk like an executive he would have an advantage.

Bayh would have a very good chance of picking up IN while NY would be an outside shot for Pataki.  Pataki would have to convince the people of NY that he is more in touch with them than Bayh.  Pataki would probably need to resign in 2006 to have any chance.  People tend to remember you more fondly if you go away for a bit.

Ohio would be a battleground where Bayh would have an edge.  PA is a tossup, better campaign takes it.  NJ would be interesting, probably still go Dem, but would give a scare.  FL would still be seen as the big prize and Pataki would have an edge there (Former NYers there give him a massive name recognition edge.)  MO is a true battleground in this race and could go either way.

A lot would come down to how the campaign went and the VP choices to keep the parties base.  I said before centrist v. centrist races are very rare and very interesting.  They go to whoever can get the base out without alienating the center.

[ATFFL]

Tredrick, who would you put your money on?  The one thing that scares me about Bayh is... I heard he is really boring.  Lacks that "IT" factor.  Some of the people I have talked to say Evan Bayh makes John Kerry look like the real JFK.  Thats bad, real bad.  Has Anyone heard him speak?  Does he have any charisma at all?  I think this is a very undrestimated feature in a presidential candidate.  People like goodlooking, friendly, charismatic, candidates... IMO

Bayh is liekly going to prove to be coachable.  A good campaign manager will bring him up to an acceptable level of personality.  Pataki isn't the most charming and affable person either, so Bayh is not at a huge disadvantage here.

A lot of people will put their own hopes onto these two relatively even candidates.  Democrats, desperate to take back the White House see Bayh as invincible, which he is not.  They see the Republican base abandoning a moderate Pataki and the idea of the Democrat base abandoning a moderate seems foreign to them.

Pataki is a bit blessed with choices, but they each have a risk attached.  He can run for governor, but their is some definite fatigue settling in with the electorate and Spitzer would be a strong challenger.  He can step down and prepare for the Presidency, but 2 years off in politics can be a long time to recover from.  He can also run for the senate and face off against Hillary.

Pataki also has the beenfit of getting his name mentioned on one of the most popular TV shows a few times each year.  Yes, it is insane, but Law & Order would help him in the early part of any national campaign.

All things being equal I give Bayh an edge.  Mainly because people would vote for a party change given the choice of two fairly similar candidates. 

[ATFFL]

Pataki would not win NY period.  He has virtually no chance of beating Spitzer in 06 if he runs again.  If Pataki is interested in running he should announce in early 06 & not seek re-election because running for Pres after getting your butt kicked in the governor's race won't look good.  His approval is in the low to mid 40's right now.

His numbers are low now, but there is a long time until the next election. 

He has been written off before.  he had no chance to beat Cuomo, yet he did.  He had no chance to hold on to the governor's mansion, yet he did.

Still, I think there is a lot of fatigue.  It will be hard for him to win against a decent candidate, and Spitzer is a decent candidate.