Labor Day predictions

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to some people, today marks the start of the "real" campaign.  The election is 64 days away.  What are your predictions?  I'll start:

House: Republicans most likely gain around 10 seats (+/-5, so 5 to 15) and win a narrow majority.  But if things break for them, they could gain as much as 25.  OTOH, if things break for the Democrats, they'll hold the House and could gain up to 5 seats.

Senate: The most likely outcome is pretty close to the status quo: the Democrats win Pennsylvania and nothing else flips, so D+1.  With a little wiggle room on either side, it could be D+0 (R's flip Nevada, lose PA) to D+2 (D's flip PA and one other, probably Wisconsin).  If there's a real wave one way or the other, the result could range from R+3-4 (NV, GA, AZ, and NH if Morse is nominated) to D+4 (PA, WI, NC, and OH).

[SaneDemocrat]

Senate:
Dems win PA,WI,NH,AZ,CO,GA

Reps win NV,FL,OH,NC

Gov

Dems win PA,WI,NV,OR,NM,ME,MN,MI

Rs win:AZ,KS,GA,FL,TX

[Xing]

Still going to temper my expectations.

Senate: Republicans win, flipping AZ/NV, while Democrats win one or both of GA/PA. 51 or 52 seats for Republicans.

House: Roughly 230 seats for Republicans.

[Schiff for Senate]

Senate: Democrats maintain either a 51-50 or 51-49 majority (PA flips blue, and NV may flip red). Likelier scenario is 51-50 (with PA and NV flipping).
House: The GOP wins a narrow majority, with under 230 seats.

[MT Treasurer]

Senate: Republicans win, flipping AZ/NV, while Democrats win one or both of GA/PA. 51 or 52 seats for Republicans.

House: Roughly 230 seats for Republicans.

Interestingly enough, my prediction is the same as yours (although I still think 53 Senate seats and 235 House seats is a possible outcome, it’s certainly less likely than half a year ago).

I’m still unsure whether Democrats are more likely to win than GA or PA, but I think the runoff seriously complicates Republican prospects in GA.

[Senator Spark]

Senate: Remains 50-50. Dems flip PA and GOP flips NV.
House: GOP with least at 220 seats.

[coloradocowboi]

Senate: 53-47 D. Ds pick up open seats in PA and NC, take out Johnson. Ryan and Franken outperform but still narrowly lose. Mike Lee also has a very close call.

House: 225D-210R. I don't see things getting better for the GOP.
-They will underperform in the North East, coming up short in pretty much all their targets except NY-19 and NJ-7. Dems won't likely pick up any seats aside from a small outside shot at Scott Perry. But they will hold the line against candidates who honestly would've won if the Rs didn't f it up so bad... e.g. Fung, Logan, Pappas...
-The GOP will pick up some seats in the South, but pretty much only through gerrymandering. I'm bullish on Wiley Nickel too.
-Ohio is gonna be bad for Republicans. I don't think Ryan wins in the end, but even if he doesn't I think he will pull Sykes, Kaptur, and Landsman over the line. Depending on how much candidate quality matters (and evidence suggests it does), I think Max Miller is more vulnerable than the conventional wisdom.
-Michigan Dems win all swing seats but MI-10. They win the two "swing" seats in gerrymandered Illinois. Vulnerable incumbents elsewhere in the Midwest like Davids and Axne hold on. In the end, losses in the South are partially offset but modest gains in the Midwest.
-Out West is where I think things will be brutal for the GOP. Given this Roe business, I don't see them picking up seats in NM or NV. CO 7/8 are prolly gone. Schweikert is unnecessarily vulnerable. So is Calvert. The region is getting more diverse. We feel the effects of climate change. I think in CA alone Dems could easily pick up 6 more seats...

Gubs 25-25, Dems pick up AZ, MA, MD

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Still going to temper my expectations.

Senate: Republicans win, flipping AZ/NV, while Democrats win one or both of GA/PA. 51 or 52 seats for Republicans.

House: Roughly 230 seats for Republicans.

I still don't understand this 'Matso stronger than Kelly' take.

[Utah Neolib]

Senate: 50 D, 50 R. Democrats pick up Pennsylvania, Republicans pick up Nevada.

House: 225 R - 230 R. The overall picture is getting better for democrats.  Yet it won’t be enough to hold the house in a midterm, even an overall atypical one.

Gubernatorial: 29 R, 21 D. Democrats hold KS, MN, MI, PA, ME and Oregon narrowly yet lose in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.

[Xing]

Still going to temper my expectations.

Senate: Republicans win, flipping AZ/NV, while Democrats win one or both of GA/PA. 51 or 52 seats for Republicans.

House: Roughly 230 seats for Republicans.

I still don't understand this 'Matso stronger than Kelly' take.

Not sure where I said or implied this? NV did vote a bit to the left of AZ in 2020, so Masto doing better than Kelly shouldn’t be seen as impossible.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

The Republicans are going to win the House with a majority that's around 230 seats... the Senate, however, is going to be extremely close, and it's a tossup as of right now.

PA as always will be the big state on Election Night with Fetterman vs. Oz.  I think that's going to be closer than the polls currently say, with a Fetterman victory by about 3% or so.  Oz is still a bad candidate but sometimes in PA the polarization makes the race closer than you think it might be (I'm thinking of Bob Casey in 2012).

I don't see any chance of Mandela Barnes winning in WI.  

The AZ, NV, and GA races could go to recounts or not be decided for days.  

NH might be also a state to watch - it's not really on the radar as much as the others.

OH will be for Vance, and I expect polls to show him easily leading by mid October.  Same thing in NC, that race will head towards the Republican.

Election Night will see high turnout, continuing in recent years trends of historically high turnout elections.  It's still a D midterm and midterms can be brutal for the presidential party.

Curious to see how younger voters go in the exit polls.

[Minnesota Mike]

I will stick with what I have been predicting since January, only PA flips in the Senate and Republicans narrowly take the House. That's pretty much CW now which worries me but I really don't think the big picture has changed much this year.

[Crumpets]

Senate: D+1
Everything holds except PA, which flips to Dems. Closest D hold is NV, closest R hold is WI.

House: R+15
I won't give a prediction for every potential seat, but if I had to pick one underdog for each party who I think is underrated, I'd say McLeod-Skinner in OR-5 for Dems and Becker in NV-3 for Pubs.

For an over-arching prediction of what the story of election night will be, it's that Dems lose the House, but it's narrow enough to be a hollow victory for Republicans who will struggle with holding the caucus together. However, national trends are more in line with 2020 than 2016 with some non-white seats being closer than expected and potentially signaling a warning sign for Dems ahead of 2024.

[Water Hazard]

House: Republicans low-mid 230s.

Senate: 52R. Individually I think they’re favored in 53 if I had to pick a winner in every race (+AZ, GA, NV), but my current guess is that they come up short in one of those or lose PA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House: Republicans low-mid 230s.

Senate: 52R. Individually I think they’re favored in 53 if I had to pick a winner in every race (+AZ, GA, NV), but my current guess is that they come up short in one of those or lose PA.

Lol Rs have already chalked up AZ, NV, Wzi and PA they stopped spending money there

On Stella it says Da have a 68% chance of keeping Senate with WI, PA, NH, GA, 52/48, GA is gonna go to a runoff and we will win the Runoff

.The H is tilt R but S it's 51/55 seats but we can see a blue wave it's not gonna be an R wave

[MillennialModerate]

I think 538 numbers are way way off..

The results are pretty much baked in.

Senate: GOP picks up Georgia; Dems pick up PA (50-50)
House: GOP +15-20 (227-232)
Governors: Dems pick up MA, MD • GOP picks up KS

[Mr.Phips]

Senate:  50-50 (PA and NV flip while GA goes to runoff)
House:  235R-200D
Governors:  29R-21D (Dems gain MD and MA, while GOP gains WI, KS, and NV)
State legislatures 32R-17D (Republicans pick up AK House, MN House, and ME House).

[wbrocks67]

I'm genuinely confused at the takes of the GOP taking 230 or more House seats. Not sure how that # is viable considering all of the evidence we have right now. That would still take at this point for their to be a bounce back for the GOP, which there is no evidence yet of either.

Honestly for the House, I think the Dems absolutely could take it, but if the GOP ends up winning, still figure it'll be something like 222-213 or something with a bare majority.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think 538 numbers are way way off..

The results are pretty much baked in.

Senate: GOP picks up Georgia; Dems pick up PA (50-50)
House: GOP +15-20 (227-232)
Governors: Dems pick up MA, MD • GOP picks up KS

Continuing the streak of being wrong about Georgia? I’m surprised you have Georgia of all states flipping to the GOP.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think 538 numbers are way way off..

The results are pretty much baked in.

Senate: GOP picks up Georgia; Dems pick up PA (50-50)
House: GOP +15-20 (227-232)
Governors: Dems pick up MA, MD • GOP picks up KS

You think Georgia flips before Nevada?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think 538 numbers are way way off..

The results are pretty much baked in.

Senate: GOP picks up Georgia; Dems pick up PA (50-50)
House: GOP +15-20 (227-232)
Governors: Dems pick up MA, MD • GOP picks up KS

You think Georgia flips before Nevada?

He's always been negative about Ds chances in GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The results are pretty much baked in.

Senate: GOP picks up Georgia; Dems pick up PA (50-50)

RIP Masto, Kelly, Fetterman, and Walker

Now I know which one of GA/PA to give to the GOP and which one to Democrats.

CCM has lead in every poll since Dobbs and Jacky Rosen is gonna get reelected in 24

[Vern]

House: Republicans win around 240 seats
Senate: Republicans win GA and NV. Democrats win PA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are winning NC 13 so NC is a Tossup now anyone can predict anything but the reality is Nickel is ahead 44/40 and BEASLEY is ahead 42/41 I know users think D's can't win WI, NC, OH or FL

Rs arent winning NV, Laxalt had been behind in every poll since DOBBS, he is behind now 48/47

I know users see OR oh my God Kotek down 1 in OR Red wave it's called MOE

[Ferguson97]

House: 225-210, Republican control.

Senate: 50-50. Democrats flip Pennsylvania, Republicans flip Nevada. Georgia once again goes to a runoff to determine Senate control, and Warnock wins.