Rust Belt 2020

[jamestroll]

I may be missing something, but could someone explain to me why there is so much confidence of places like Pennsylvania and Michigan being safe Republican 2020?

The entire rust belt is economically distressed, and the region is prone to heavy wild swings.  Just in 2008, most rust belt states were called very quickly for Obama, and Obama carried Indiana and nearly carried Missouri. In 2016, Minnesota and Illinois were the only two rust belt states Clinton could win.

Trump kept pushing protectionism, and promises of those manufacturing jobs to return. (Spoiler: they will not return, technology is shifting the labor market).

If Trump can not keep his promise, I could see the rust belt swing back to the Democrats and MO and IN within ten points again.

To me, this is different from the lost of West Virginia in 2000.. most of these rust belt states do have Democratic bases, and Trump won them on a traditionally liberal issue, Protectionism.


Oh, and I just read this article: http://www.salon.com/2016/11/20/trumps-big-talk-about-trade-with-rust-belt-voters-will-come-back-to-haunt-him_partner/

[jamestroll]

I may be missing something, but could someone explain to me why there is so much confidence of places like Pennsylvania and Michigan being safe Republican 2020?

Because Atlas overreacts to everything. This election showed us that the 272 Freiwall was dead/never existed; therefore, Republicans are guaranteed to win every election into perpetuity.

True...

It wasn't like Kerry won the upper Midwest in a massive landslide at all.

Thing about the Rust Belt is, all those states have big city Democratic bases, save Iowa. All it will take is an unpopular Republican administration to swing some voters outside the cities back to the Democrats, and thus having a Democrat win those states again.

[jamestroll]

Beet,

Even if most states that Trump won in the rust belt, his favor-ability ratings are quite low.

Which region swings the most? The Rustbelt and Midwest. There is  heavy potential for Democrats to do very well in the Rust Belt in the 2018 Midterms and even the 2020 Presidential Election.

This is not like when Gore lost West Virginia in 2000. The Democratic base there was largely yellow dogs. Quite honestly, many of those voters are dead.  The states that Trump won this year, such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania do have Democratic and Liberal bases.

But we should all remember that things can change so much. Back in 2008, Hillary Clinton was winning many of those same Trump 16 voters in the primaries and was seen as the Democratic candidate of the White Working Class. Eight years later, she was clobbered.

On another note, Republicans seem to campaign on "small government" too much to become a fully populist party.

[jamestroll]

No state in the midwest is anchored to a big city like Illinois is to Chicago. It doesn't play out when you look at population trends. You can't carry, Ohio, for example, on Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland alone. Nor can you carry Pennsylvania on Pittsburgh and Philidelphia.

It would likely just take an unpopular Republican Administration to at least swing some of the rural voters back to the Democrats. I have agreed that the rust belt was never the "freiwall" Democrats made it out to be. It is a swing region.

I do expect at least a decent performance by Democrats in 2018 in the Midwest.

Democrats (and Republicans) also need to seriously reconsider the term "rust belt." It offends those hard working folks who lost their jobs, and that's exactly what can't happen going forward.

Most of those jobs are not coming back, unfortunately. The job market is shifting.

[jamestroll]

Most of those jobs are not coming back, unfortunately. The job market is shifting.

That doesn't address Buckeye's point, which I think is a good one.

You are correct, my apologies. I just do not see how it could be that offensive. But I will stick to the term Midwest.

[jamestroll]

What am I suppose to say? If the term "rust belt" is going to offend people, please suggest to me an appropriate title for this thread.

Unless you want it, "Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania 2020"