Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.  (Read 77271 times)
Xing
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« Reply #325 on: November 19, 2018, 06:04:57 PM »
Apparently, Mia Love's gain in Utah County was actually not great for her, since it was a weaker margin than before, and now almost all of what's left is SLC. McAdams needs to win about 58% of the remaining votes in SLC, which is only a few points higher than what he's been getting recently (54%).

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/19/gehrke-good-news-is-bad/
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #326 on: November 19, 2018, 06:06:13 PM »
Quote from: Beaten Titan Dean Heller on November 19, 2018, 06:04:57 PM
Apparently, Mia Love's gain in Utah County was actually not great for her, since it was a weaker margin than before, and now almost all of what's left is SLC. McAdams needs to win about 58% of the remaining votes in SLC, which is only a few points higher than what he's been getting recently (54%).

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/19/gehrke-good-news-is-bad/

That sounds like we'll be within 100-200 votes in the end either way anyway, so probably recount territory.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #327 on: November 19, 2018, 07:17:07 PM »


valadao update
Only leading by a thousand(although thats a decent lead for a district like this)
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #328 on: November 19, 2018, 07:19:18 PM »
Quote from: lfromnj on November 19, 2018, 07:17:07 PM


valadao update
Only leading by a thousand(although thats a decent lead for a district like this)

Umm it says he's leading by only 930 votes.

Cox may be favored at this point...
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lfromnj
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« Reply #329 on: November 19, 2018, 07:20:47 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 19, 2018, 07:19:18 PM
Quote from: lfromnj on November 19, 2018, 07:17:07 PM


valadao update
Only leading by a thousand(although thats a decent lead for a district like this)

Umm it says he's leading by only 930 votes.

Cox may be favored at this point...

yeah id say its Tilt D rn honestly as TJ Cox did hit his benchmarks.
Anyway 930 in a district like this is big because 3 times as many people voted in other districts than this one.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #330 on: November 19, 2018, 07:21:19 PM »
Valadao lead plummets to just 930 votes-

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #331 on: November 19, 2018, 07:22:06 PM »
How much is still out in CA-21?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #332 on: November 19, 2018, 07:30:29 PM »
Is it bad that I audibly gasped at that?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #333 on: November 19, 2018, 07:35:21 PM »
More details...
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Pericles
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« Reply #334 on: November 19, 2018, 07:37:31 PM »
CA-21 is really fun to watch.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #335 on: November 19, 2018, 07:39:52 PM »
Yeah, I never understood why people thought Valadao and Hurd were unbeatable juggernauts. I didn’t even move these races out of the Toss-up category when it appeared that Democrats had given up on CA-21/TX-23.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #336 on: November 19, 2018, 07:50:56 PM »

The legend of the Kern County provisional ballots lives on!

As Nate Silver noted, this one is going to be an extreme nailbiter. The AP should really un-call the race.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #337 on: November 19, 2018, 07:53:46 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 19, 2018, 07:35:21 PM
More details...



The Kings number is quite old (Nov 14th) and Kings has had several small updates since.  Should be under 500 votes left in Kings to count.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #338 on: November 19, 2018, 07:54:41 PM »
Quote from: The Inevitable Kevin Stitt on November 19, 2018, 07:50:49 PM
Quote from: McCaskill 2020 on November 19, 2018, 07:39:52 PM
Yeah, I never understood why people thought Valadao and Hurd were unbeatable juggernauts. I didn’t even move these races out of the Toss-up category when it appeared that Democrats had given up on CA-21/TX-23.

Valadao made sense given his past margins and his 28 point win in the jungle primary. Hurd... not sure what they were smoking there with the absurd Hurd +15 polls in samples where Trump was popular

Yeah Valadao was definitely Lean R although an upset was not impossible if you used a fundamental model for midterm turnout in that district + the primary results
The Hurd polls were bullsh**t when he won by 1 point for the past 2 elections and the same polls showed Beto losing the district and Trumps with  +13 approval LMAO. Yet because pundits were like muh strong 1 point win candidate is obviously gonna win by 10 in a dem wave year so no one cared.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #339 on: November 19, 2018, 07:55:56 PM »
Quote from: McCaskill 2020 on November 19, 2018, 07:39:52 PM
Yeah, I never understood why people thought Valadao and Hurd were unbeatable juggernauts. I didn’t even move these races out of the Toss-up category when it appeared that Democrats had given up on CA-21/TX-23.

Neither did I tbf....

The problem with both these districts was trying to forecast voter turnout and the composition of the electorate knowing that turnout in 2018 would be a bit different in both districts than in 2014.

One the one hand there are significant concentrations of relatively affluent educated Anglo Republicans in places like Bexar and Fresno Counties... one the other hand you have Latino populations that have tended to vote in lower numbers in Midterm elections in both places, especially working-class Latinos that tend to be much more heavily Democratic than Middle-Class Latinos, on the other hand you've got a decent pool of younger voters in both districts, that tend to skew more heavily Democratic, etc....

It will be interesting to dissect both districts in further detail once we get precinct level results....
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #340 on: November 19, 2018, 07:57:35 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on November 19, 2018, 07:55:56 PM
Quote from: McCaskill 2020 on November 19, 2018, 07:39:52 PM
Yeah, I never understood why people thought Valadao and Hurd were unbeatable juggernauts. I didn’t even move these races out of the Toss-up category when it appeared that Democrats had given up on CA-21/TX-23.

Neither did I tbf....

The problem with both these districts was trying to forecast voter turnout and the composition of the electorate knowing that turnout in 2018 would be a bit different in both districts than in 2014.

One the one hand there are significant concentrations of relatively affluent educated Anglo Republicans in places like Bexar and Fresno Counties... one the other hand you have Latino populations that have tended to vote in lower numbers in Midterm elections in both places, especially working-class Latinos that tend to be much more heavily Democratic than Middle-Class Latinos, on the other hand you've got a decent pool of younger voters in both districts, that tend to skew more heavily Democratic, etc....

It will be interesting to dissect both districts in further detail once we get precinct level results....

There are affluent Anglo Republicans in Fresno County, but not so much in Valadao's district. They're mostly in Nunes's district with the rest in Costa's district. Valadao has the poor parts of Fresno County and no suburbs, really, just rural areas and small towns.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #341 on: November 19, 2018, 08:02:08 PM »
MCADAMS TOOK THE LEAD
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #342 on: November 19, 2018, 08:04:25 PM »
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #343 on: November 19, 2018, 08:05:38 PM »
Salt Lake County Vote Dump a few minutes ago:

McAdams: 124,696
Love:        104,678       

(+20,018 DEM)

Friday PM SLC Vote Dump:

McAdams: 119,520
Love:        101,757

(+ 17,763 DEM)

+ 2,255 DEM GAIN from Salt Lake County with Today's Numbers.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #344 on: November 19, 2018, 08:05:43 PM »
Quote from: Queen Pelosi, Regina of the House, Regnant of Amerittania 👁 on November 19, 2018, 08:04:25 PM


Cheesy

Guess I should have been more optimistic. I guess those were provisionals or something and thus more Democratic than expected.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #345 on: November 19, 2018, 08:05:51 PM »
Quote from: Queen Pelosi, Regina of the House, Regnant of Amerittania 👁 on November 19, 2018, 08:04:25 PM


The Dems ending this election with a net of 40 seats seems pretty likely now, especially since things are looking pretty good for Cox.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #346 on: November 19, 2018, 08:06:06 PM »
It would be really amazing if Dems pull out both CA-21 and UT-04. That would be 40 seats gained, right? Or is it 41?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #347 on: November 19, 2018, 08:06:50 PM »
This is cray-cray.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #348 on: November 19, 2018, 08:07:06 PM »
Quote from: Queen Pelosi, Regina of the House, Regnant of Amerittania 👁 on November 19, 2018, 08:04:25 PM


OOGA BOOGA!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes, another blue dog plox!
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #349 on: November 19, 2018, 08:07:18 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 19, 2018, 08:05:51 PM
The Dems ending this election with a net of 40 seats seems pretty likely now, especially since things are looking pretty good for Cox.

Lol you keep posting the same thing that I do a few seconds before.
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