Democrats: If you lose Florida and Ohio, do you still feel confident of victory?

[agcatter]

Can Obama win if he loses Florida and Ohio?  Yes.  Absolutely.  If McCain carries the states Bush carried minus Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada he only has 247 electoral votes - 23 short of the magic 270.  Obama would need to hold all Kerry's states and then it would boil down to the following close Bush states:

Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Iowa (7)

Obama has a better shot at carrying these states than Clinton (she polls horribly in Colorado for
example).  Interesting that if McCain carried Virginia and Colorado and lost the others, you'd have a 269-269 tie in which Obama would be elected by the House as it is presently constituted.

The irony is that while Obama is stronger than Clinton in those 5 swing states, Clinton is stronger in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and has a better shot at Ohio.

Buckle up people, we are looking at a squeaker either way.

[agcatter]

Yes, if Obama loses both Ohio AND Pennsylvania, he would have to run the table with no margin of error.  Unlikely to say the least.

[agcatter]

I think the point is that it will be very close either way.   McCain has 227 electors solidly in the bag regardless of what happens.  That's his absolute worst case scenario even without Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada etc.  There will be no electoral landslide either way regardless of what happens with the economy or anything else.  Democrats have a similar block of immovable electoral votes.  Anyone on either side who crows about winning this thing is talking trash with no basis of fact.

[agcatter]

Nope, not that difficult at all.  All Obama would need to do is hold every Kerry state and sweep every swing state.  Piece of cake.

[agcatter]

LOL.  When you keep having to use the word "if" with regards to your candididate's winning various swing states to get to 270, you do indeed have very little margin of error.

I stick to what I said.  It will be VERY close in the electoral college.  I have to laugh at those of you making fun of hillary's 50 + 1 strategy.  I hate to tell you, but these close scenarios we have been outlining apply to all three candidates.

As far as Dean's 50 state strategy, that's a lot of spin.  Without lifting a finger McCain is within 42 electoral votes of 270.  That's with no Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, to say nothing of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire.

Hillary, her coalition consists of Gore's states plus Ohio and Pennsylvania (two states she has a better chance of winning than Obama).

As was outlined earlier, Obama has a way to get just over the line by putting together 270 in a slightly different way but losing Ohio will make it mandatory to win Pennsylvania (that is probably 50-50) plus a  majority of swing states - states won by Bush in 04).

In other words, supporters of all three candidates will need to put a lid on the trash talk.  All three are, by the numbers, hanging off the edge of a cliff.

[agcatter]

Sam is right on target.

[agcatter]

About the same as Barack's if Obama loses Ohio and Pennsylvania - slim and none and slim just left town.

As to the poster's comment that Obama's max is not 291 - that's ridiculous.

Both parties have the same number of immovable electoral votes and unless Obama is going to cut into the solid south or McCain is going to win Connecticut - 290 is about it - max.

Obama does have the ability to lose Kansas by 12 instead of 18.  So what.

[agcatter]

I see where you're going but West Virginia, Missouri, Florida?

Those are not doable - not for Obama.

[agcatter]

He's down 15 points this morning In Mo. according to Rasmussen poll just released.  I know it's early, but the white vote isn't there for Obama in the border states.  I thought going into this year Mo would be up for grabs.  Just not with Obama.  Race completely changes that dynamic.  Maybe with the loss of a shot with Mo he can trade off and pick up Colorado.

I agree that Mo has been the ultimate swing state.  No doubt about that.  However, I'd argue that the nomination of a black liberal has changed that dynamic.  Obama might indeed win, but he'll have to win with a different combination than the usual. 

[agcatter]

You are absolutely correct that people knew he was black in November, January etc.  However, they have now been introduced to Reverand Wright.  That scares a lot of whites - not the limo liberal set.  Chris Mathews, NY Times etc think he can make a speech and that's the end of it. 

We will just have to agree to disagree.

[agcatter]

....and don't forget West Virgininia.