Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Only 50% of women are Pro Choice and 43% are Pro Life? I wish.

But as an issue it's only the be all and end all for 13% of them

[Eraserhead]

Only 50% of women are Pro Choice and 43% are Pro Life? I wish.

Yeah, that's pretty absurd.

[J. J.]

Only 50% of women are Pro Choice and 43% are Pro Life? I wish.

Yeah, that's pretty absurd.

It depends how you define the terms.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Obama/Biden: 49 (NC)
McCain/Palin: 42 (-1)

Still no bump from the GOP convention.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday - September 4, 2008

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)

The results are based on interviewing conducted Sept. 1-3. The vast majority of interviews on Wednesday evening were conducted before Sarah Palin gave her much-anticipated convention speech. However, the data do indicate that the initial first two nights of the convention -- the slimmed down Monday program in deference to Hurricane Gustav and Tuesday's speeches headlined by former senator Fred Thompson -- have, so far, done little to change voter preferences.

Thursday's interviewing will be the first to reflect the immediate impact of Palin's speech, and the coming days will give a truer measure of the effect the GOP convention -- including McCain's acceptance speech tonight -- is having on voters. Obama got a four percentage point increase in his share of the vote in Gallup Poll Daily tracking coming out of the Democratic convention last week, establishing a lead over McCain after the two had been exactly tied immediately prior to last week's convention.

[Meeker]

Lieberman and Thompson were apparently very helpful.

[Democratic Hawk]

Still no bump from the GOP convention.

Don't count your chckens and hope that there won't be

[Eraserhead]

Lieberman and Thompson were apparently very helpful.

Putting those two amazing showmen on in primetime was clearly a stroke of genius.

Anyway, they should start to be a tad concerned if they don't start moving up a little bit by tomorrow. I won't be though!

[J. J.]

Still no bump from the GOP convention.

Don't count your chckens and hope that there won't be

^^^^^^^^^^^

[KeyKeeper]

Lets see what the numbers look like on Monday.

[Sam Spade]

As in contrast to Rasmussen, McCain's sample today was slightly worse to what we had before (the sample that dropped off here was an Obama +4 to +5 sample, around the same as Rasmussen).  Nevertheless, McCain will almost assuredly move at least a couple of points closer tomorrow once the Labor Day sample drops off tomorrow (as it was at least Obama +11).  It could be more.  We'll see.

[Brittain33]

Wednesday - September 4, 2008

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)

Labor Day's throwing people off. It's Thursday.

[Tender Branson]

So far, so good. I expect Obama's lead to be down to 4% by tomorrow or Saturday. Otherwise, it would be troubling for McCain.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The GOP is already completely behind McCain.... and most independents are smart enough to see through Palin's garbage. 

[??????????]

The GOP is already completely behind McCain.... and most independents are smart enough to see through Palin's garbage. 

Yeah, because she's in your words "a dumb c*nt".

[ChrisFromNJ]

The GOP is already completely behind McCain.... and most independents are smart enough to see through Palin's garbage. 

94% of conservatives are behind McCain, according to Gallup. And he is still behind by 7%.

[Wiz in Wis]

give it a few days... though it is instructive that both Ras and Gallup show little movement, buy this time last week Obama had gained 5 points in the spread.

[Lief 🗽]

Pretty soon McCain will realize that Palin, while awesome at solidifying conservatives behind the most far-right major party ticket since Goldwater, isn't doing a great job of wooing independents and Democrats. And if McCain doesn't significantly cut into Obama's numbers with indies and dems, he's screwed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Pretty soon McCain will realize that Palin, while awesome at solidifying conservatives behind the most far-right major party ticket since Goldwater, isn't doing a great job of wooing independents and Democrats. And if McCain doesn't significantly cut into Obama's numbers with indies and dems, he's screwed.

Bush won in 2004 without Democrats and Indies. Bush 2004 and McCain 2008 are all about turning out the fundie base.

[Reaganfan]

Pretty soon McCain will realize that Palin, while awesome at solidifying conservatives behind the most far-right major party ticket since Goldwater, isn't doing a great job of wooing independents and Democrats. And if McCain doesn't significantly cut into Obama's numbers with indies and dems, he's screwed.

Bush won in 2004 without Democrats and Indies. Bush 2004 and McCain 2008 are all about turning out the fundie base.

Bush was elected by getting just about all of the Republican vote, and then a few independents and democrats. McCain can do the same, and win.

[Alcon]

Bush was elected by getting just about all of the Republican vote, and then a few independents and democrats. McCain can do the same, and win.

McCain pulling the same share of Democrats, Republicans and independents would mean he'd lose by a couple of points.

[Brittain33]

Pretty soon McCain will realize that Palin, while awesome at solidifying conservatives behind the most far-right major party ticket since Goldwater, isn't doing a great job of wooing independents and Democrats. And if McCain doesn't significantly cut into Obama's numbers with indies and dems, he's screwed.

Bush won in 2004 without Democrats and Indies. Bush 2004 and McCain 2008 are all about turning out the fundie base.

Yes, and all McCain would have to do to make that work is recreate the macro conditions of 2004 for the Republicans while making Obama do worse than Kerry in connecting to voters.

Palin absolutely stopped the bleeding, as someone said last night. Where they go from here, remains to be seen. They don't win with a 2004 strategy any more than Gore could win with a 1996 strategy.

[Lief 🗽]

Pretty soon McCain will realize that Palin, while awesome at solidifying conservatives behind the most far-right major party ticket since Goldwater, isn't doing a great job of wooing independents and Democrats. And if McCain doesn't significantly cut into Obama's numbers with indies and dems, he's screwed.

Bush won in 2004 without Democrats and Indies. Bush 2004 and McCain 2008 are all about turning out the fundie base.

Bush was elected by getting just about all of the Republican vote, and then a few independents and democrats. McCain can do the same, and win.

Not unless something major (as in out of McCain and Obama's control) happens between now and November that completely changes the dynamics of the race.

[Ronnie]

By this weekend, I expect Obama to lead by 3 or something.

[Democratic Hawk]

Bush was elected by getting just about all of the Republican vote, and then a few independents and democrats. McCain can do the same, and win.

McCain pulling the same share of Democrats, Republicans and independents would mean he'd lose by a couple of points.

McCain may well win independents, nationally, in 2008 thanks to former Republicans embarrassed out of the party by George W Bush but sympathetic to the man of myth

Dave