Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[batmacumba]

From 2002 to 2006, the NE region - and specially the state of Pernambuco - saw an unprecedent amount of investment. Not only the federal programs aimed to eradicate extreme poverty managed to make a huge impact on the backwards local rural economy, but electrification projects, the organization of ports infrastructure and technological investments associated to this brought an incipient industrialization - and the local government, led by Arraes' foes was completely unable to  profit on that.
Using a very  low profile approach, in order to avoid reaction, Campos, now Science and Technology Minister, built his candidacy to the state election in 2006.
Arraes' death, early that year, made his partisans more eager to regain the governorship and, starting in the 3rd place, Campos obtained a sounding victory, even with the very negative campain against him, based on his state treasurer's years scandal. His allies made a impressive showing in the neighbouring states, which, coupled with the PT's inability to make good showings in the NE, made him the region's Lulista reference.

With this state of affairs, Campos reshaped his party, getting rid both of old socialists (unless they were willing to adhere his left-corporatist ways - which, specially for the former PCB's, was no problem at all - except for AP's Don Quixote) and of the more vocally engaged evangelicals. The party also managed to bring in a sector of industrialists (including the president of the all powerful São Paulo State Industrial Federation - FIESP - which were historical enemies of any kind of left) and high profile celebrity candidates, like former footballer Romário (who, surprisingly, is one of the best congresspeople around).
In the following years, Campos re-industrialized (or finally industrialized, depending on the POV)his state and reached a record 80% positive feedback in local polls. After having a ridiculously easy reelection, in 2010 (he was rumored to be called for the VP slot in all but PSoL's ticket) he got off the 2012 municipal elections as the only great winner, crushing both enemies and allies in his capital city, and electing a very nice share of mayors in importante cities nationwide.

When the 2012 election was over, the whole country finally perceived what was happening and the SP based media found there was a undeniable power up in the north. In this last 8 months, the politic establishment is shaken. Reports about lines of entrepreneurs waiting to talk with him pops now and then and he started to demonstrate a less governist approach (with the small share of government aligned pundits - mainly bloggers - calling him an oppositor) beginning a discourse of "we can do more".

What is this "more" is the great question, at this moment.

[batmacumba]

Well, the first attempt to deal with Campos momentum was to testtube him as a potential VP to Marina Silva's candidacy.

[segue onto Marina]

[RodPresident]

After protests, Dilma collapsed in polls
Dilma (PT): 30%
Marina (Network): 23%
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 17%
Eduardo Campos (PSB): 7%
Her approvals went from 57% to 30%, while negatives went from 9% to 25%. Many are now supporting Lula's comeback.

[buritobr]

Too early but...

Instituto MDA/CNT September 4th 2013

First round

Dilma Roussef 36,4%
Marina Silva 22,4%
Aécio Neves 15,2%
Eduardo Campos 5,2%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 40,7%
Marina Silva 31,9%

Dilma Roussef 44,0%
Aécio Neves 24,5%

Dilma Roussef 46,7%
Eduardo Campos 16,8%

[buritobr]

New poll today September 26th 2013 Ibope


First round

Dilma Roussef 38%
Marina Silva 16%
Aécio Neves 11%
Eduardo Campos 4%

38% > 16%+11%+4% So, Dilma would win in the first round. Even though, Ibope surveyed some scenarios for a possible runoff election

Dilma Roussef 43%
Marina Silva 26%

Dilma Roussef 45%
Aécio Neves 21%

Dilma Roussef 46%
Eduardo Campos 14%

[Famous Mortimer]

So is Neves like a crappy candidate or something? I thought he would be doing better.

[buritobr]

1. Aécio Neves was a very popular governor of Minas Gerais. His New Public Management policies were considered best practices by many papers about public management. But being a good state manager doesn´t mean being a good national leader. After the failure of Sarney and Collor as presidents, many Brazilians do not trust in governors as presidents. Governors are considered too local and not national. Among the three most recent elected presidents, Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Dilma Roussef were ministers and Lula was a labor union leader, and then, a party leader. The same can be told about Eduardo Campos, the very popular governor of Pernambuco.

2. Aécio Neves' performance as senator is weak

3. Many people do not like his lifestyle: no family, active nightlife. Two years ago he was caught driving drunk.

4. Even though Neves is an opponent of president Roussef, he was not benefited by the mass protests of June. The protests started as a movement against the rise of the bus fare in the city of São Paulo, ruled by a PT (Roussef's party) mayor, but it spread to other cities, ruled by other parties. Than, they became protests against everything that is going bad in Brazil, and their target became all politicians. Since PSDB (Neves' party) has many state governors, this party became also target of the demonstrators. Specially after the violent reaction of the São Paulo riot police. The state of São Paulo has a PSDB governor. Only Marina Silva, who does not have a party yet, benefited from the protests.

5. São Paulo is the home of PSDB and many PSDB voters from São Paulo prefer a candidate from their state. They would not admit to the survey one year before the election that they would vote for Aécio Neves, even if they would, if they did not have other choice.


Even though, I think that Aécio Neves will have between 30% and 40% of the votes on October 2014. At least 30% of the votes go to anti-left candidates. Besides, since PSDB and its allies have a significant number of seats in the Congress, Aécio Neves will have much more minutes of TV advertising in August/September 2014 than Marina Silva.

[RodPresident]

A big maneuver is going to happen. Marina Silva is going to join PSB and can form an alliance with Campos. PSB received some notorious right-wingers in last times, like Paulo Bornhausen (son of Jorge Bornhausen) and Heráclito Fortes (one of DEM defeated senators by left-wing wave in 2010).

[Leftbehind]

A big maneuver is going to happen. Marina Silva is going to join PSB and can form an alliance with Campos. PSB received some notorious right-wingers in last times, like Paulo Bornhausen (son of Jorge Bornhausen) and Heráclito Fortes (one of DEM defeated senators by left-wing wave in 2010).

Point being Marina Silva is now seen as right-wing (courting reactionary evangelicals of late) or PSB accepting anyone (ideologically-vacant)?

[MaxQue]

A big maneuver is going to happen. Marina Silva is going to join PSB and can form an alliance with Campos. PSB received some notorious right-wingers in last times, like Paulo Bornhausen (son of Jorge Bornhausen) and Heráclito Fortes (one of DEM defeated senators by left-wing wave in 2010).

Point being Marina Silva is now seen as right-wing (courting reactionary evangelicals of late) or PSB accepting anyone (ideologically-vacant)?

Who cares? She is just a sell-out, that's all we need to know.

[Leftbehind]

Part and parcel of being a left-winger today is finding out just how far your elected representative has sold you out!

[Sec. of State Superique]

Major news guys! Marina failed to create its own party (Rede Sustentabilidade) and decided to join on Governor Campos´Party, the Brazilian Socialist Party!

[buritobr]

Marina Silva is neither leftist nor rightist. She is like a sailor looking for the direction of the wind.

Her 19% in 2010 included

1. Typical green party voters: middle-upper class social liberal young people who supported environmentalism, gay marriage, abortion, legalization of marijuana
2. Evangelic conservatives who opposed gay marriage, abortion and legalization of marijuana
3. People who approved Lula administration, disapproved the conservatism of José Serra campaign, but disapproved the corruption scandals in which PT leaders were involved in 2005 and  did not trust in Dilma Roussef after a scandal was found in her ministry 20 days before the election (and the media increased the relevance of this scandal)

Due to the contradictions inside her supporting base, I don't believe she could win more than 50% of the votes. I think she would have fewer than 19% in 2014. I compare Marina Silva with Ross Perot.


Having Marina Silva as a vice make Eduardo Campos stronger. The probability of him defeating Dilma Roussef in the runoff is higher than the probability of Aécio Neves doing this.

[Zuza]

2. Evangelic conservatives who opposed gay marriage, abortion and legalization of marijuana

For what reasons such people voted for her?

[Sec. of State Superique]

2. Evangelic conservatives who opposed gay marriage, abortion and legalization of marijuana

For what reasons such people voted for her?

Marina is an evangelic as well. Unlike most members of the Green Party, due to her religious belief, she prefered to remain in silence about those issues. Serra was failing to get votes and Dilma was seen by many conservatives as a pro-abortion pro-gay marriage candidate because many reverends said so. My sister's babysitter and my maid voted on Marina because she was a protestant. In the second round, they ended up voting on Dilma

[Sec. of State Superique]

A big maneuver is going to happen. Marina Silva is going to join PSB and can form an alliance with Campos. PSB received some notorious right-wingers in last times, like Paulo Bornhausen (son of Jorge Bornhausen) and Heráclito Fortes (one of DEM defeated senators by left-wing wave in 2010).

Point being Marina Silva is now seen as right-wing (courting reactionary evangelicals of late) or PSB accepting anyone (ideologically-vacant)?

PSB is accepting anyone because Eduardo Campos is obsessed about being President. He wants Marina to be VP, he wants to form a great coaliton (even if that means creating a non-ideological party) and he wants to be the Third Way that will finish second in the race.

Marina, as ways, didn't know really well what she would do after loosing the possibility of creating the #Rede. She considered the Popular Socialist Party (former Communist Party, similar ideology now of the UK Labour Party) but she prefered Campo's Party because she really wants new people in politics. She couldn't keep it with moralism and give up of her own party, she would be ignoring the 19 million that counted on her! She decided to join in the PSB but actually they are saying that they are forming a coalition. Basically, the Sustainability Net is a clandestine party inside the PSB and it's very likely that Marina will be Campos' VP after all.

There is only one candidature that was pretty damaged after that, and unfortunately it was Aécio Neves' one. Campos/Marina is stronger than Aécio/Any one else and it will be very difficult for him managing to go to the Second Round. His only chances are if what happened with Ciro Gomes (former PMDB, former PSDB, former PPS, former PSB - that he left after Campos gave up of endorsing Dilma) in 2002 happens with Campos! On that year, José Serra managed to go to the Second Round using Ciro's own failures (He said bad words frequently)  and comparing him to Fernando Collor de Mello ("Another fresh face from the Northeast?").

Take a look at Ciro's Collapse:

This could happen with Eduardo Campos as well, although he is pretty well liked by the media and even the right-wingers are not so happy about Aécio Neves!

[buritobr]

Playing with mathematics, I calculated some scenarios of a runoff between Dilma Roussef and Eduardo Campos.

In all scenarios, I considered that everyone who voted for José Serra in 2010 will vote for Eduardo Campos in 2014. I considered possibilities of transfer of votes from Dilma Roussef to Eduardo Campos.

In 2010, Dilma Roussef defeated José Serra by 56-44

Scenario 1
In Pernambuco where Roussef defeated Serra by 75,7-24,3, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
No modification in other states
Roussef defeats Campos by 54,5-45,6

Scenario 2
In Pernambuco, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In the other 8 Northeastern states, Campos steals 10% of Roussef's votes
Roussef defeats Campos by 52,9-47,1

Scenario 3
Considering that in the states where Marina Silva was strong, her transfer of votes to the opponent of Roussef will be 75% instead of only a little bit more than 50%
In Pernambuco, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In the other 8 Northeastern states, Campos steals 10% of Roussef's votes
In Distrito Federal, where Marina Silva had 42% in the first round, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In Rio de Janeiro, where Marina Silva had 31,5% in the first round, Roussef defeats Campos by 51,6-48,4, instead of 60-40 in 2010
Roussef defeats Campos by 52,0-48,0

Scenario 4
In Pernambuco, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In the other 8 Northeastern states, Campos steals 10% of Roussef's votes
In Distrito Federal, where Marina Silva had 42% in the first round, Campos defeats Roussef by 60-40
In Rio de Janeiro, where Marina Silva had 31,5% in the first round, Roussef defeats Campos by 51,6-48,4, instead of 60-40 in 2010
In Minas Gerais, the candidates tie instead of Roussef win 58-42, as it happened in 2010
Roussef defeats Campos by 51,1-48,9

[buritobr]

Datafolha October 12, 2013

Now, when Marina Silva joined PSB, she and Eduardo Campos may not run both. It is one or the other.


Scenario 1 (most feasible)
Dilma Roussef (PT) 42%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 21%
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 15%

Scenario 2
Dilma Roussef (PT) 39%
Marina Silva (PSB) 29%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 17%

Scenario 3
Dilma Roussef (PT) 40%
José Serra (PSDB) 25%
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 15%

Scenario 4
Dilma Roussef (PT) 37%
Marina Silva (PSB) 28%
José Serra (PSDB) 20%


Runoff

Dilma Roussef 47%
Marina Silva 41%

Dilma Roussef 54%
Aécio Neves 31%

Dilma Roussef 51%
José Serra 33%

Dilma Roussef 54%
Eduardo Campos 28%

[Sec. of State Superique]

Name Recognition:
Eduardo Campos -57%
Dilma Roussef - 99%
José Serra - 98%
Marina Silva - 88%
Aécio Neves - 78%

Serra is willing to make a Coup D'Etat on the PSDB but Aécio has much higher chances than Serra...

[RodPresident]

Burito, you made a very pessimistic prospect for Dilma in Pernambuco. Many people won't understand Campos split with PT and he'll have difficulties to win in Pernambuco.

[buritobr]

I though that Eduardo Campos could not be understimated because in 2010, both Eduardo Campos and Dilma Roussef were elected by wide margins in Pernambuco, but Eduardo had 80% and Dilma had 60% in the first round. In 2006, PT was not in the Eduardo's coalition for governor of Pernambuco. The PT candidate was the third and Eduardo was elected for the first time. I though that 2014 would be the opposite of 1989 in Pernambuco. In 1989, Lula had a slight majority (51-49) in that state. Lula won the Metropolitan Region of Recife and the coast (zona da mata), and Collor won the countryside (agreste and sertão). I though that in 2014, Dilma would win the countryside and Eduardo would win the metropolitan region and the coast.

But I made my prospects before Datafolha poll. You can see the complete data here http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2013/10/14/intencao-de-voto-presidente.pdf

There is no data for state, only for region, but we can see that according to this pool, in a runoff Dilma vs. Eduardo, Dilma wins against Eduardo by 54-28 in the whole country and by 61-28 in the Northeast.
All the opposition candidates - Aécio Neves, José Serra, Eduardo Campos and Marina Silva - have a growth potential because in this poll, many of the interviewed people that are right-wing, PSDB and disapprove Dilma's administration answered that they will not vote (branco/nulo/nenhum) although we know that in the day of the election they will vote for one of them.
However, even if in the election day all the voters that did not decide yet vote for the opposition, Dilma would win 61-39 in the Northeast.

[buritobr]

Datafolha November 29th, 2013


Scenario 1
Dilma Roussef (PT) 47%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 19%
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 11%

Scenario 2
Dilma Roussef (PT) 42%
Marina Silva (PSB) 26%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 15%

Scenario 3
Dilma Roussef (PT) 45%
José Serra (PSDB) 22%
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 11%

Scenario 4
Dilma Roussef (PT) 41%
Marina Silva (PSB) 24%
José Serra (PSDB) 19%

In the most probable scenario (scenario 1), Dilma increased 5 points and Aécio decreased 2 points from October 11th

Observation: this poll was conducted after two weeks of large media coverage of the arrest of two important members of the Workers Party (PT) because of the congressmen vote buying scandal from 2005.

[FredLindq]

How can Dilma gain in support when her corrupt party goes down in flames?

[RodPresident]

Governor of Sergipe Marcelo Deda, 53, died today due to a digestive cancer in Sao Paulo. He was serving his 2nd term, but he was out of office since May. He served in State Legislature, Chamber of Deputies (as PT caucus leader) and as Mayor of Aracaju (2001-06). He'll be replaced by Lieutenant Governor Jackson Barreto (PMDB).

[buritobr]

Newspaper Folha de S. Paulo released today a survey about the opinion of the Brazilians on economic and social issues, in order to evaluate if they are more left-wing or right-wing

Economic Issues

Economic Growth
67% Government is the most responsible for investment
24% Private firms are the most responsible for investiment

Role of the government
58% Government should prevent abuses commited by firms
31% Government should not interfere

Firms
57% Government should help national firms which have risk to become bankrupt
34% Government should not help these firms

Labor legislation
54% Labor legislation more protects workers than harms firms
34% Labor legislation more harm firms than protects workers

Social policies
47% Their lives will improve the more they receive government benefits
47% The fewer they depend on the government, the better will be their lives

Taxes
43% It is better to pay more taxes and receive free education and health
49% It is better to pay fewer taxes and pay for private education and health services


Social issues

Religion
12% Trusting in god doesn't make someone a better person
87% Trusting in god makes someone a better person

Drugs
15% Should be legalized
83% Should not be legalized

Teenagers
26% Criminal teenagers should not be punished as if they were adults
72% Criminal teenagers should be punished as if they were adults

Death penalty
49% Oppose
47% Support

Unions
49% Are important to support the workers
45% Are used by politicians

Poverty
65% There is poverty because of the lack of equal opportunities
32% There is poverty because poor people are lazy

Weapons
68% Should be forbidden because they are a threat
30% Should be permitted because the individuals have right to defend themselves

Immigration
67% Good for economic and cultural development
25% Creates many problems

Homossexuality
67% Should be accepted
25% Should not be accepted


So, it is possible to observe that most of the Brazilians are centrist, a little closer to the left on economic issues and a little closer to the right on social issues.

Considering the average of the answers
10% of the Brazilians are on the left
31% of the Brazilians are on the center-left
20% of the Brazilians are on the center
29% of the Brazilians are on the center-right
10% of the Brazilians are on the right

Among the Brazilians on the right
37% pretend to vote for Dilma Roussef
22% pretend to vote for Aécio Neves
8% pretend to vote for Eduardo Campos

Among the Brazilians on the left
54% pretend to vote for Dilma Roussef
16% pretend to vote for Aécio Neves
13% pretend to vote for Eduardo Campos