2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Mr. Morden]

Suffolk will release a Nevada poll tomorrow morning:

https://twitter.com/brianduggan/status/1176272063071313920

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac IA poll coming at 3PM.

Interesting. Do you happen to know if this the first time they've polled Iowa in this race?

I believe it is, yes.

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

I think you could make the case that Yang has a slightly better chance than Steyer, despite being one poll behind currently.  Steyer is heavily dependent on Nevada and South Carolina polls, and those states just don't have very many polls.  Yang has much more of a chance with national polls, and we could conceivably get a flurry of national polls after the new year, and so if Yang is lucky enough to hit the qualifying number in enough of them, he has a chance.  Yang has also been reasonably strong in NH polls, even if most of the recent ones haven't been qualifying polls.  So maybe he gets lucky with a NH poll as well.

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

I think you could make the case that Yang has a slightly better chance than Steyer, despite being one poll behind currently.  Steyer is heavily dependent on Nevada and South Carolina polls, and those states just don't have very many polls.  Yang has much more of a chance with national polls, and we could conceivably get a flurry of national polls after the new year, and so if Yang is lucky enough to hit the qualifying number in enough of them, he has a chance.  Yang has also been reasonably strong in NH polls, even if most of the recent ones haven't been qualifying polls.  So maybe he gets lucky with a NH poll as well.

True, but there likely won’t be a „flurry of polls“ until Jan. 10th.

Maybe a Quinnipiac or Monmouth poll, but that’s it.

CNN and all others polled shortly before Christmas and usually only do once a month, which would be after the deadline.

And CNN etc. have never really cared about debate deadlines for polls in the past, somwhy would they now ? I assume most qualifying polls will be released after Jan. 10th.

The case for there being more polls early-ish in January would be that we're only a few weeks away from Iowa, and the frequency of polls could start increasing.  There would have been a dearth of polls from all pollsters during the Christmas-New Year's period, so maybe several pollsters will kick off the new year with a table setting early-Jan. poll, regardless of what their previous schedule is.  It's unlikely, but probably a better bet for national polls for Yang than expecting some more qualifying polls in Nevada for Steyer.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/brianduggan/status/1216569428919214080

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/JamesPindell/status/1219298785278468096

[Mr. Morden]

With two weeks to go before Iowa, I'm wondering if any pollsters who haven't polled the state yet will give us one poll there before caucus day.  Seems like Fox is a possibility.  They've polled NV and SC, but not yet IA or NH.  But they *did* poll Iowa in 2016, so maybe they'll give us one in these final weeks.  There are also some pollsters that have polled Iowa this cycle, but haven't given us one in a while.  E.g., no Quinnipiac poll of Iowa since November, and no Suffolk/USA Today poll since October.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess this will be a February debate qualifying poll, because it’s NYT and their previous IA poll counted as well.

No, it won't be, because none of the Iowa polls counts towards inclusion in the Feb. 7th debate, since the debate in question happens after the caucuses, so polls of Iowa are kind of meaningless at that point.  It's Iowa *caucus results* that determine debate invitations, along with NH/NV/SC and national polls (and donor counts).

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ArjavRawal/status/1221242600440524801?s=20

Maybe Bernie tied or ahead? That's my guess.

Could be that if the celebration is a celebration of the poll numbers unto themselves.  But if we're actually talking about real world impact from the poll, then the other obvious possibility is Yang getting 5% or more, which puts him within striking distance of qualification for the next debate.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ArjavRawal/status/1221242600440524801?s=20

Maybe Bernie tied or ahead? That's my guess.

Could be that if the celebration is a celebration of the poll numbers unto themselves.  But if we're actually talking about real world impact from the poll, then the other obvious possibility is Yang getting 5% or more, which puts him within striking distance of qualification for the next debate.

Looks like I was right.

[Mr. Morden]

Emerson will release a final Iowa poll on Sunday night:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1222683416770031616

[Mr. Morden]

On the question of whether NBC has a poll of Iowa coming out, there was also this tweet yesterday, which mentions a Sunday discussion of "the latest NBC poll":

https://twitter.com/KasieDC/status/1223394936214773763

I suppose that could be referring to this week's national poll, or another upcoming poll that's either national or a state other than Iowa.  But it's at least as likely that it's teasing an NBC poll of Iowa that's soon to be released.

[Mr. Morden]

Suffolk will have a daily tracking poll of NH, with the first release on Monday night:

https://twitter.com/BarnacoatWBZ/status/1223337792241131525

[Mr. Morden]

I guess there was some speculation as to whether Quinnipiac might have a last minute Iowa poll released on caucus day, since in 2016 they did do a poll release on caucus day.  But since nothing's been announced so far, it looks like that's not happening.

[Mr. Morden]

Monmouth NH poll is coming out later today:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1225099152729804800

[Mr. Morden]

Given that we have President's Day I don't expect any new Polls to be released TODAY.

I just looked up President's Day from four years ago, and on that day, we got 3 different South Carolina polls:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=229372.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=229389.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=229390.0

[Mr. Morden]

I'd assume we'll also get a Morning Consult national poll tomorrow (which of course isn't a qualifying poll, but will give us more info on where things stand nationally).  Will be glad to finally get some clarity on where things stand nationally following the New Hampshire results.  We've had barely any national polls that were taken post-NH, as we've had to rely on joke outfits like Zogby.