Normington Petts/End Citizens United (D): Clinton +10 (2-way) Clinton +8 (4-way)

[Mehmentum]

Link

2-Way:
Clinton 50%
Trump: 40%

4-Way:
Clinton: 45%
Trump: 37%
Johnson: 8%
Stein: 4%

Congressional Ballot:
Democrats: 48%
Republicans: 41%

Its commissioned by a liberal activism group, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Gass3268]

Probably can cut those margins by 25-33% and you get a decent number.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Dem internals were among the most accurate polls of 2012, so I wouldn't dismiss them as extremely slanted towards Clinton.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nevertheless, these numbers are not just pretty good for Hillary, they give me hope for Congress.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow!!! Great poll.

[Seriously?]

Wow!!! Great poll.

LOLz, the best an advocacy group can do with a D+8 sample. I might as well show you the complete junk poll from "US Daily Wire" that shows Trump up 6 while I am at it.

[Lief 🗽]

Yes this poll that is in line with the polling averages is definitely comparable to the literally made-up poll that is a double-digit outlier. Your critical thinking abilities continue to impress.

[Gass3268]

538 took 2 points off Clinton's margin for the polls-plus, 0 points for the polls only, and 1 point off for the now cast, seems about right.

[Seriously?]

Yes this poll that is in line with the polling averages is definitely comparable to the literally made-up poll that is a double-digit outlier. Your critical thinking abilities continue to impress.

This hack poll is not in line with the polling over the past two weeks.

[Gass3268]

Yes this poll that is in line with the polling averages is definitely comparable to the literally made-up poll that is a double-digit outlier. Your critical thinking abilities continue to impress.

Good point!

[Lief 🗽]

Yes this poll that is in line with the polling averages is definitely comparable to the literally made-up poll that is a double-digit outlier. Your critical thinking abilities continue to impress.

This hack poll is not in line with the polling over the past two weeks.

lol the current Pollster average is +8, literally identical to this poll

[Gass3268]

Yes this poll that is in line with the polling averages is definitely comparable to the literally made-up poll that is a double-digit outlier. Your critical thinking abilities continue to impress.

This hack poll is not in line with the polling over the past two weeks.

lol the current Pollster average is +8, literally identical to this poll

Pollster is part of the vast lieberal conspiracy?!? Didn't you know that?

[Fusionmunster]

Yes this poll that is in line with the polling averages is definitely comparable to the literally made-up poll that is a double-digit outlier. Your critical thinking abilities continue to impress.

This hack poll is not in line with the polling over the past two weeks.

Yes it is. Polling dictates that if this is a +6 to +8 race for Clinton, some polls will show a closer race than the average and some polls will show Clinton with a larger lead than the average. Thats why we use polling aggregates.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

538 took 2 points off Clinton's margin for the polls-plus, 0 points for the polls only, and 1 point off for the now cast, seems about right.

538 gave it slightly less weight than to last Zogby poll

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Good news, especially when there's really no telling how much Hillary's organizational advantage is worth.

[Boston Bread]

I have to say, it must be a little embarrassing for Clinton that she's barely outperforming Generic D vs Generic R.

[Seriously?]

Yes this poll that is in line with the polling averages is definitely comparable to the literally made-up poll that is a double-digit outlier. Your critical thinking abilities continue to impress.

This hack poll is not in line with the polling over the past two weeks.

Yes it is. Polling dictates that if this is a +6 to +8 race for Clinton, some polls will show a closer race than the average and some polls will show Clinton with a larger lead than the average. Thats why we use polling aggregates.

Except it doesn't. But you believe the narrative you want to believe and cling onto those LV polls from Early August.

[Mehmentum]

I have to say, it must be a little embarrassing for Clinton that she's barely outperforming Generic D vs Generic R.

I think this is more a result of ticket splitting being so rare.  The Congressional ballot numbers are so close to the presidential numbers because people tend to base all of their votes on who they vote for at the top of the ticket.

[Holmes]

All this BS from Seriously is gonna make him taking a big L on election night so much sweeter. Please don't leave until then.

[Seriously?]

All this BS from Seriously is gonna make him taking a big L on election night so much sweeter. Please don't leave until then.

You mean actual math and numbers = BS now...

Look. I may be a partisan when it comes to the race itself, but I'll say it until I am blue in the face. Numbers are numbers.

[Crumpets]

All this BS from Seriously is gonna make him taking a big L on election night so much sweeter. Please don't leave until then.

You mean actual math and numbers = BS now...

Look. I may be a partisan when it comes to the race itself, but I'll say it until I am blue in the face. Numbers are numbers.

But calling something a "hack poll" does not in and of itself constitute using "math and numbers."

[Virginiá]

Good news, especially when there's really no telling how much Hillary's organizational advantage is worth.

I've really been wondering how much of an effect this will have, because things are quite different this time around. In 2012, Obama ran a superior ground game and over-performed his RCP average nicely (I could be attributing things wrongly here, but whatever), and that was with Romney actually running his own ground ops, albeit dysfunctional in the end.

Compare this to Trump, who has virtually no field effort worth mentioning, and the RNC's own operation has different priorities, leaving many states vulnerable and important ones outmatched.

If robust ground games truly do have worthwhile effects, they could be very substantial for Democrats this cycle. A bonus that we won't be able to measure until the results come in on November 8th.

[Desroko]

Good news, especially when there's really no telling how much Hillary's organizational advantage is worth.

I've really been wondering how much of an effect this will have, because things are quite different this time around. In 2012, Obama ran a superior ground game and over-performed his RCP average nicely (I could be attributing things wrongly here, but whatever), and that was with Romney actually running his own ground ops, albeit dysfunctional in the end.

Compare this to Trump, who has virtually no field effort worth mentioning, and the RNC's own operation has different priorities, leaving many states vulnerable and important ones outmatched.

If robust ground games truly do have worthwhile effects, they could be very substantial for Democrats this cycle. A bonus that we won't be able to measure until the results come in on November 8th.

There are a few papers floating around from the 2008 and 2012 cycles, but I'd look at Indiana 2008 as the best example of what happens when the ground games are asymmetrical. The state has averaged R+7-8 in post-Cold War elections, except when Obama invested heavily and McCain ignored it. The result was R+3.

Now I don't expect Trump to have zero GOTV, but that example is pretty telling. An extra two points of margin doesn't seem out of line at this point. 

[BlueSwan]

Good news, especially when there's really no telling how much Hillary's organizational advantage is worth.

I've really been wondering how much of an effect this will have, because things are quite different this time around. In 2012, Obama ran a superior ground game and over-performed his RCP average nicely (I could be attributing things wrongly here, but whatever), and that was with Romney actually running his own ground ops, albeit dysfunctional in the end.

Compare this to Trump, who has virtually no field effort worth mentioning, and the RNC's own operation has different priorities, leaving many states vulnerable and important ones outmatched.

If robust ground games truly do have worthwhile effects, they could be very substantial for Democrats this cycle. A bonus that we won't be able to measure until the results come in on November 8th.

Yes. Except that there is a real question as to how excited people are for Clinton. Will the dem ground operation actually be as strong as Obamas was this time around? And will they be as succesful in getting people to turn out. That is a big question.

[Seriously?]

All this BS from Seriously is gonna make him taking a big L on election night so much sweeter. Please don't leave until then.

You mean actual math and numbers = BS now...

Look. I may be a partisan when it comes to the race itself, but I'll say it until I am blue in the face. Numbers are numbers.

But calling something a "hack poll" does not in and of itself constitute using "math and numbers."

It's akin to a Democrat internal for crying out loud. You wouldn't see me gleefully touting something from the NRA as gospel as to where the race is right now. This particular poll is not worth the bandwidth used for this thread.