The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Devout Centrist]

Monumental collapse way early into the presidency.

He is 1-3% lower than a month ago and still is 5-10% higher than during election. Monumental collapse?

AHCA might though cause collapse in the future though...

Favorables aren't approvals

In theory - yes.

If you check the numbers you'll hardly see any difference.

Obama's favorables were better than his approvals. Bill Clinton's approvals were a lot better than his favorables.

In reality, even a difference of a few points is pretty significant.

[I Won - Get Over It]

SurveyMonkey:

Approve 42%
Disapprove 56%

Strongly disapprove outweighs strongly approve 44%-23%

Source

Trump's approval rating felt by 4% to his all-time low 42% in SurveyMonkey among all adults.

Among RV it felt by 3% to all-time low 44%.

[Ronnie]

Gallup:

Approve: 41% (+2)
Disapprove: 54% (-2)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup:

Approve: 41% (+2)
Disapprove: 54% (-2)

So he's in this 38-41 range

[Crumpets]

ICITIZEN:

37% Approve
62% Disapprove

Source

Holy midterm, Batman!

[henster]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

[publicunofficial]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

[henster]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

[publicunofficial]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

[Blackacre]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

[Ronnie]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

Pubs are currently ahead 48-35 in the generic ballot: https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324622895759360

I think the only thing Democrats can count on if they want to regain congress is low Republican turnout.  The Republican base's support of the party probably won't erode much, if at all.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

Pubs are currently ahead 48-35 in the generic ballot: https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324622895759360

I think the only thing Democrats can count on if they want to regain congress is low Republican turnout.  The Republican base's support of the party probably won't erode much, if at all.

It's counties he won a lot of them are hardcore red counties so take that with a grain of salt

[heatcharger]

A gold standard pollster, ARG, finds Trump deeply underwater in New Hampshire:

Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

[Holmes]

I'm sry curious as to how iCitizen defines its regions. Their latest poll says the West Coast (not the west in general) is his best region, more than the South.

[pbrower2a]

Votes on the margin, the swing votes, can decide elections one time, or they can indicate trends. They should be seen as the shakiest of votes for the next election.

Three things can be true of such votes.

1. They can indicate a long-term trend. This is so if they reflect demographic or cultural change. A country that gets a big influx of Latino voters might be headed Democratic. A county going from rural to urban might have gone from Democratic to Republican.

Blue-collar white people may have been the likely suspects this time. If JFK was telling people "Ask not what your country can do for you -- ask what you can do for your country"... Donald Trump might have been implying along with libertarian types "Ask what your country can do TO you".  

2. A politician may be appealing to visceral concerns -- concerns the most difficult to meet.  If he gets genuine progress in meeting those concerns he might build a permanent coalition as did FDR. As late as the 1990s, Bill Clinton won elections largely on  the New Deal coalition.

Donald Trump is an FDR. Barack Obama, who clearly did not create a permanent coalition that got solid majorities for him in the House and Senate, was closer to being a new FDR. That is a tough standard, one that Donald Trump will never meet.

3. The politician can fail to meet those concerns. If it is pure bigotry, then the Courts might decide that such bigotry when translated into public policy violates the Constitution. If bait-and-switch economics, then those who voted for the bait and got the switch can vote with those who rejected the bait in the next election.  

[ProgressiveCanadian]

A gold standard pollster, ARG, finds Trump deeply underwater in New Hampshire:

Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

Hahaha it's ARG but it's seems sadly legit.

[pbrower2a]

It's a small state, but potentially a pivotal state -- New Hampshire. Democrats have not won the Presidency without the Granite State since 1976, and it was potentially the difference between Gore and Bush in 2000. It was one of Hillary Clinton's weakest wins.

A gold standard pollster, ARG, finds Trump deeply underwater in New Hampshire:

Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%

New Hampshire is about D+2; it does not swing much from the national average. Polling has been slow, and it is hard to see how New Hampshire could disapprove of Donald Trump by 55% or more unless he is incredibly awful. This is close to consistent with about 35% approval for the President nationwide.

I see evidence that Donald Trump would lose six states that he won in 2016: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. At this point I would expect Donald Trump to lose 'bigly' in 2020.  Maybe not like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. The Democrats do not have an FDR or a Reagan, but they do not need one.  

 




Favorability:

Still useful for some states.


Approval:

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

[Blackacre]

Any approvals out of Ohio?

[pbrower2a]

Any approvals out of Ohio?

Not yet. Ohio is typically about R+2... and it would be good for calibrating approval for the President. It swung sharply in 2016. I expect Ohio to look bad for President Trump. He suggested that he would create lots of blue-collar jobs -- where are the jobs?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Any approvals out of Ohio?

Not yet. Ohio is typically about R+2... and it would be good for calibrating approval for the President. It swung sharply in 2016. I expect Ohio to look bad for President Trump. He suggested that he would create lots of blue-collar jobs -- where are the jobs?

I'd predict it to be around 44-55.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Interesting how AHCA failure will play out. I think that the pundits will be proven wrong

[Hindsight was 2020]

Interesting how AHCA failure will play out. I think that the pundits will be proven wrong

Yeah when a president fails on his first major legislation his #'s don't go up

[GlobeSoc]

Echelon surveyed 'Trump Country', specifically counties he carried in 2016. They found his JA 50/41.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324024930619398

Is this an average of all Trump counties or just the Midwest ones?

Here is the page where they define it. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/got-a-question-for-trump-country-fa3157dd0113#.nq0797tw7

50/41 isn't particularly stellar considering how many of those are 60-70% Trump counties.

But it still indicates that the areas that backed Trump most strongly are still behind him. Look at the 2018 Congressional Ballot too in those areas

Pubs are currently ahead 48-35 in the generic ballot: https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/845324622895759360

I think the only thing Democrats can count on if they want to regain congress is low Republican turnout.  The Republican base's support of the party probably won't erode much, if at all.

That seems like an underwhelming margin, though. If thoseundecideds split 2/3ds pub that would still be approaching democratic wave territory

[I Won - Get Over It]

Interesting how AHCA failure will play out. I think that the pundits will be proven wrong

Yeah when a president fails on his first major legislation his #'s don't go up

Only the fact that media will talk less about his Obama-wiretapped-Trump-Tower-drivel might be enough. We'll see.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

ICITIZEN:

37% Approve
62% Disapprove

Source

Whoa, that disapproval

Total collapse folks!