State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Gustaf]

Ethan Berkowitz over 57% of the vote in Anchorage,  so we can safely say he’ll win even with the rest of the post-marked ballots. Seems like a pretty strong result for a Democratic mayor in a light red city. 2020 senate run?

As long as he does better than in his 2010 gubernatorial run...

[Gustaf]

Here's some context for you deniers - a Republican has 37% in the Texas seat. Trump got 33% there in 2016, and Cruz probably got like 28%.

Only one takeaway from these special elections: Republicans surging.

A 72% Hispanic seat having awful turnout helping Republicans is not anything new, or surprising.

So many excuses...
Democratic over-performance in 2017 and 2018 specials came in all types of seats. Now, its happening in none of them. Look to the Pittsburgh suburbs, a state senate seat that every statewide and congressional democrat won in 2018, for the next fail.

Were Democrats over-performing everywhere in 2017 and 2018? Because you certainly weren't saying that at the time.

[Gustaf]

Next special election is on the 19th in VA HD 86. It's a safely democratic district that Clinton carried by 35 points - but Republicans are contesting the race, and the margin will tell us a lot about the impact of Northamgate and whether the disappointment we've seen in Minnesota and Georgia is being reflected elsewhere in the country.

Will it indeed.

[Gustaf]

Wow Dem candidate ran even ahead of Obama. What a hack can't beleive it. It's a safe D seat at the state leg level.

Thanks - glad you seemed to enjoy my maps! Sounds like your planning on making better ones yourself?

No, man, I'm not in the mapmaking business. My point was pretty obvious one. If you do public work, post it online, I hate to break it down to you but you could be criticized. It's a shock, I know. However I really didn't even criticize your maps or talked about how hard you do your job. I only pointed out that you were comparing apples to oranges, special election results vs presidential election in the same seat. Better comparison for sure is with the state leg election from the same year in which Trump won. Random observer on twitter and even here notes big swing to Dems but it would be a slightly different story if we compare 2016 state leg with this special. Your passive agressive tone that followed a normal comment is really something. Reminds me of 2016 election twitter in early vote reporting.. Remember, bias isn't what you report rather what you don't.

lol