UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The government's defeat on the Grieve amendment doesn't have quite the same instant headline pull as the other defeats, but may be more significant.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL

Via The Guardian

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[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

God, everyday I see a statement from the DUP and their crew of gurning, idiot Orangemen, a bad part of me wishes we just give their whole damn province to the Republic without a border poll. Obviously that would be a bad idea, and it's unfair on ordinary Ulster people to suffer from the arrogance of their representatives, but still.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Bring on the Newkip - freeda people, do it do it do it do it do it now!

[Pericles]

I don't see why May would resign if she loses the vote, she clearly wants to be in Number 10 and I doubt she'd want her legacy to be the Prime Minister who lost her majority and stuffed up the Brexit negotiations and then was the second one to run away and leave a mess for their successor. I think how she operates she'd rather fix the mess herself, especially since an alternative deal-even if it's only cosmetically different-is probably possible, and I think in almost all scenarios she'd have to get forced out of office rather than resigning. And of course the Tories don't have anyone who'd be better at the job than her. I could see the party forcing her out but I find it hard to see her resigning just because she loses the vote on December 11.

[Pericles]

How much will her deal fail by? The Guardian seems to be estimating it goes down 198-441(https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/nov/15/can-you-get-mays-brexit-deal-through-parliament). 317-104=213, then take off the DUP, though maybe add on 10 Labour MPs(being generous). And have a slightly reduced turnout to a full parliament, so something like 425-210. Still it seems impossible for May to win on the first vote, and it seems implausible for it to be close enough for her to win on the second.

[YL]

@JamesERothwell

Labour Leave expects 20 Labour MPs to abstain on Brexit deal, maybe 1 or 2 will back it, rest to reject. Warns party has been taken over by Remainers while grassroots strongly support a clean Brexit

^^ that's an interesting point, how many will abstain?!

Maybe a few will, but "Labour Leave" are talking utter rubbish (as usual) if they think that the Labour Party "grassroots", by any sensible interpretation of the word, support a "clean Brexit" (strongly or otherwise).

[YL]

@BethRigby
Stephen Lloyd has resigned the Lib Dem whip: is this because he’s going to defy party and vote FOR May’s Deal

Reading between the lines, it may be a combination of that and being on the receiving end of criticism from the party membership for his stance.  That he was going to vote with the Government has been known for some time.

(BTW Audrey: please could you try and cut down on the number of journalists' tweets you're cutting and pasting without comment?  They're flooding the thread and making it very hard to have any actual discussion in it.)

[YL]

@JamesERothwell

Labour Leave expects 20 Labour MPs to abstain on Brexit deal, maybe 1 or 2 will back it, rest to reject. Warns party has been taken over by Remainers while grassroots strongly support a clean Brexit

^^ that's an interesting point, how many will abstain?!

Maybe a few will, but "Labour Leave" are talking utter rubbish (as usual) if they think that the Labour Party "grassroots", by any sensible interpretation of the word, support a "clean Brexit" (strongly or otherwise).

I think they meant Labour leave areas like hartlepool, stoke-on-trent, Bassetlaw, Ashfield and Don Valley?!

Well, the tweet you quoted didn't say that, and even if that's what they intended polling evidence suggests that a majority or close to one of Labour supporters even in those places support a second referendum.

[Silent Hunter]

@BethRigby
Stephen Lloyd has resigned the Lib Dem whip: is this because he’s going to defy party and vote FOR May’s Deal

Reading between the lines, it may be a combination of that and being on the receiving end of criticism from the party membership for his stance.  That he was going to vote with the Government has been known for some time.

(BTW Audrey: please could you try and cut down on the number of journalists' tweets you're cutting and pasting without comment?  They're flooding the thread and making it very hard to have any actual discussion in it.)

That reduces the Lib Dem presence in the Commons from 12 to 11, with a current total of 9 Independents.

[YL]

That reduces the Lib Dem presence in the Commons from 12 to 11, with a current total of 9 Independents.

It's getting quite hard to keep track of the Independents.

Sylvia Hermon (North Down): elected as Independent.  Originally an Ulster Unionist, first elected in 2001, left the party over their alliance with the Tories in the 2010 election.  She's a Remainer but is supporting May's deal.

John Woodcock (Barrow & Furness), Jared O'Mara (Sheffield Hallam), Frank Field (Birkenhead): elected as Labour, resigned whip for various reasons.  Field is pro-Brexit and may well support May's deal; O'Mara is a Remainer and won't; Woodcock is also a Remainer but I think is one of the more likely opposition MPs to support it.

Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne): elected as Lib Dem, resigned whip.  Voted Remain but supporting the deal.

Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North), Ivan Lewis (Bury South): elected as Labour, whip suspended.  Hopkins is pro-Brexit (of the "Lexit" type) but I don't think he'll vote with the Tories on this; Lewis is expected to vote against the deal.

Charlie Elphicke (Dover), Andrew Griffiths (Burton): elected as Tories, whip suspended.  The Guardian's list has Elphicke voting against the deal and Griffiths for.

[Silent Hunter]

A debate between two people supporting Brexit wouldn't have flown anyway. Also, Labour's policy is nonsensical.

[Silent Hunter]

Half of voters in North back a united Ireland after May’s Brexit

55% of people would back a United Ireland including 11% of unionists, but 42% said they would prefer to stay in the UK, while 3% did not know.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/half-of-voters-in-north-back-a-united-ireland-after-mays-brexit-d8zlmvk2v

^^ Freedom poll

TBH it is time for a border poll.

[YL]

Half of voters in North back a united Ireland after May’s Brexit

55% of people would back a United Ireland including 11% of unionists, but 42% said they would prefer to stay in the UK, while 3% did not know.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/half-of-voters-in-north-back-a-united-ireland-after-mays-brexit-d8zlmvk2v

^^ Freedom poll

NB they actually asked several questions, and the numbers quoted above are for a No Deal scenario.

Under May's deal, they got a 48%-48% tie (though with rather more of the voters against a United Ireland certain of their vote).  Under No Deal they got 55% for reunification and 42% against; under No Brexit they got only 29% for reunification and 60% against.

Details are at https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/12/07/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll---Winter-2018

Health warning: Northern Ireland polling is not particularly reliable, and I don't particularly trust questions based on assuming hypothetical scenarios either.  But this does suggest that perhaps the DUP should be careful what they wish for...

[Silent Hunter]

How exactly is a United Ireland a good thing for Ireland when it's going to make them financially liable for the six counties?

[Silent Hunter]

I find it ironic that a party called "Ourselves Alone" wants Ireland to be part of the Eurozone.

[Thatkat04]

@Audrey

You seem really excited about the potential for dissolution of the United Kingdom. I can't say I share you excitement.

[Silent Hunter]

Sinn Fein used to be eurosceptic until recently, Northern Ireland voted narrowly Yes (52%) in the European Community membership referendum (1975),
though DUP, Sin Fein, UUP all campaigned for NO back then, while SDLP and Alliance party campaigned for Yes,
Did the Catholic community in Northern Ireland vote NO back then? or did the protestant community vote NO?

Communities don't vote. People do.

[Omega21]

Jeremy Corbyn blasts 'neoliberal' EU as he calls for a socialist Europe

All hail Jeremy, the glorious leader of the future UKSSR!

[ag]

Jeremy Corbyn blasts 'neoliberal' EU as he calls for a socialist Europe

All hail Jeremy, the glorious leader of the future UKSSR!

(pedantic) The right term is ESSR: English Soviet Socialist Republic.  It cannot be simultaneously a Kingdom and a Republic, so K would have to be dropped. And It is not likely to be very United, so there goes the U. I guess, if Wales states, it could be BSSR (British Soviet Socialist Republic).

Though, on second thought, there is a problem: ESSR was Estonia and BSSR was Belorussia. So, perhaps, to follow the Soviet practice in such cases we should do EngSSR or BritSSR.

[Omega21]

Jeremy Corbyn blasts 'neoliberal' EU as he calls for a socialist Europe

All hail Jeremy, the glorious leader of the future UKSSR!

(pedantic) The right term is ESSR: English Soviet Socialist Republic.  It cannot be simultaneously a Kingdom and a Republic, so K would have to be dropped. And It is not likely to be very United, so there goes the U. I guess, if Wales states, it could be BSSR (British Soviet Socialist Republic).

Though, on second thought, there is a problem: ESSR was Estonia and BSSR was Belorussia. So, perhaps, to follow the Soviet practice in such cases we should do EngSSR or BritSSR.

Oh yeah, you're right, my bad... BritSSR seems hip, but I would also be fine with EngSSR.

Let's just hope he spears the Royals, unlike the Soviets...

[ag]

Jeremy Corbyn blasts 'neoliberal' EU as he calls for a socialist Europe

All hail Jeremy, the glorious leader of the future UKSSR!

(pedantic) The right term is ESSR: English Soviet Socialist Republic.  It cannot be simultaneously a Kingdom and a Republic, so K would have to be dropped. And It is not likely to be very United, so there goes the U. I guess, if Wales states, it could be BSSR (British Soviet Socialist Republic).

Though, on second thought, there is a problem: ESSR was Estonia and BSSR was Belorussia. So, perhaps, to follow the Soviet practice in such cases we should do EngSSR or BritSSR.

Oh yeah, you're right, my bad... BritSSR seems hip, but I would also be fine with EngSSR.

Let's just hope he spears the Royals, unlike the Soviets...

Spears the royals?! Poor Queen Elizabeth. Why do you want such a grizzly end for her?!!! Then, again, just thinking of Corbyn with a spear makes one shudder.

Or did you mean spares?

[Blair]

It's a lot of bollocks to say the Scots have 'never felt at home' with the union.

Not only does it ignore the entire 19th century, where the Scottish did remarkably well from industrialsation, and empire but it also ignores that in the last two elections in Scotland the unionist parties have done much better than they were doing.

[Silent Hunter]

It's a lot of bollocks to say the Scots have 'never felt at home' with the union.

Not only does it ignore the entire 19th century, where the Scottish did remarkably well from industrialsation, and empire but it also ignores that in the last two elections in Scotland the unionist parties have done much better than they were doing.

You choose to be rude rather than look at the facts, most of the wealth in Scotland was owned by the privileged few during the heydays of slavery and the tobacco industry, most of the colourful and characteristic buildings in Glasgow were built during that era...

Scotland witnessed unprecedented levels of emigration (more than any part of the UK bar Ireland) to Canada, New Zealand and to lesser extent the US and Australia for centuries.
Some Scots were driven out of their lands by the Lords of MacDonald's and MacLeods in the Isle of Skye but thats another subject.

Since the 50s the Scots had to put up with Tory governments they never voted for because people in London suburbs and the South East vote overwhelmingly Tory...

Demographic changes and the way Scotland is disrespected and ignored by the current Tory government, are creating a fertile ground for independence,
SNP need to wait for the right moment before triggering indyref2, patience is of the essence...

Pretty sure that there was a Labour government in the 1970s that held the first devolution referendum.

[Omega21]

Jeremy Corbyn blasts 'neoliberal' EU as he calls for a socialist Europe

All hail Jeremy, the glorious leader of the future UKSSR!

(pedantic) The right term is ESSR: English Soviet Socialist Republic.  It cannot be simultaneously a Kingdom and a Republic, so K would have to be dropped. And It is not likely to be very United, so there goes the U. I guess, if Wales states, it could be BSSR (British Soviet Socialist Republic).

Though, on second thought, there is a problem: ESSR was Estonia and BSSR was Belorussia. So, perhaps, to follow the Soviet practice in such cases we should do EngSSR or BritSSR.

Oh yeah, you're right, my bad... BritSSR seems hip, but I would also be fine with EngSSR.

Let's just hope he spears the Royals, unlike the Soviets...

Spears the royals?! Poor Queen Elizabeth. Why do you want such a grizzly end for her?!!! Then, again, just thinking of Corbyn with a spear makes one shudder.

Or did you mean spares?

Hahahaha, yeah, I meant spares, my bad again...

Seriously, I feel like the 2 party UK system is worse than in the US.